Реферат: II. методические рекомендации 7

СОДЕРЖАНИЕ

I . ПРЕДИСЛОВИЕ…

II .МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЕ РЕКОМЕНДАЦИИ…

III . ОСНОВЫ АННОТИРОВАНИЯ И РЕФЕРИРОВАНИЯ. ПРАКТИЧЕСКИЕ РЕКОМЕНДАЦИИ…

IV . ТЕКСТЫ ДЛЯ РЕФЕРИРОВАНИЯ, АННОТИРОВАНИЯ И ПЕРЕВОДА

UNIT I.GLOBALISATION…

Т ext A…

ONE WORLD?..

Text B…

EXPAND THE DEBATE ON GLOBALISATION…

Text C…

GLOBAL CAPITALISM, R.I.P.?..

UNIT II…

WORLD TRADE…

Text A…

TRADE WINDS…

Text B…

THE RACE FOR THE BOTTOM…

Text C…

SPOILLING WORLD TRADE…

UNIT III. ECONOMIC POLICY AND WORLD INTEGRATION…

Text A…

BEARING THE WEIGHT OF THE MARKET?..

Text B…

ARE THE POOR DIFFERENT?..

Text C…

THE JOYS OF LIVING IN SYNE…

UNIT IV Europe: Economic And Monetary Union…

Text A…

THE «EURO»…

Text B…

ASKING FOR TROUBLE…

Text C…

WHY NON-EUROPEANS SHOULD CARE ABOUT EMU…

UNIT V. Inflation…

Text A…

MURDER, THEY WROTE…

Text B…

INFLATION IS DEAD…

UNIT VI. BUSINESS AND BUSINESSES…

Text A…

WORLDBEATER, INC…

Text B…

BEHIND AMERICA’S SMALL BUSINESS SUCCESS STORY…

Text C…

THOROUGHLY MODERN MONOPOLY…

UNIT VII. MANAGEMENT. MARKETING…

Text A…

INSTANT COFFEE…

Text B…

WHY TOO MANY MERGERS MISS THE MARK…

Text C…

JOHANNESBURGERS AND FRIES…

UNIT VIII. FINANCIAL MARKETS…

Text A…

A SMOOTHER RIDE, BUT LESS FUN…

Text B…

INVESTORS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIAN EQUITIES…

Text C…

FIXED AND FLOATING VOTERS…

UNIT IX. BANKS AND BANKING SAVING…

Text A…

HOW SAFE IS YOUR BANK?..

Text B…

CENTRAL BANKS ON THE TRAIL OF THE MUTANT IFLATION MONSTER…

Text C…

THE LLOYDS MONEY MACHINE…

Text D…

RATTLING THE PIGGY BANK…

V . Наиболее распространенные трудности перевода экономических текстов с английского языка на русский…

Упражнения для закрепления навыков перевода

I РАЗДЕЛ

Модальные и вспомогательные глаголы…

1. MAY (MIGHT)…

2. MUST…

3. SHOULD…

4. TO BE…

5. HAVE TO…

II РАЗДЕЛ…

Инфинитив…

1.Инфинитив в различных фукциях…

2. Инфинитивные конструкции…

III РАЗДЕЛ …

Герундий…

1.Герундий в функции обстоятельства…

2. Герундий в функции определения, дополнения, подлежащего и составного сказуемого…

3. Герундиальный комплекс…

IV РАЗДЕЛ…

Причастие…

1.Причастие в различных функциях…

2. Причастные конструкции…

3. Абсолютная причастная конструкция с предлогом with…

4. Причастие в функции союзов и предлогов…

V РАЗДЕЛ…

Страдательный залог (пассив)…

VI РАЗДЕЛ …

Оборот it is (was)… who (that, when и т.д.)…

VII РАЗДЕЛ…

Служебные слова…

VIII РАЗДЕЛ…

Артикль…

IX РАЗДЕЛ…

Сослагательное наклонение…

X РАЗДЕЛ…

Эллиптические конструкции…

XI РАЗДЕЛ…

Сложные атрибутивные конструкции…

XII РАЗДЕЛ…

Обзорные упражнения…

СПИСОК ИСПОЛЬЗОВАННОЙ ЛИТЕРАТУРЫ…

I. ПРЕДИСЛОВИЕ

Учебное пособие «Реферирование, аннотирование и перевод экономических текстов. Теория и практика» предназначено для студентов старших курсов и магистрантов экономических факультетов, овладевших основной экономической лексикой и базовыми навыками перевода с английского языка на русский. В основе содержания пособия лежит двуединая задача действий по реферированию и аннотированию: информативная и учебная.

Цель создания пособия:.

— обучение реферированию и аннотированию экономических текстов;

— углубление и совершенствование навыков перевода экономических текстов с английского языка на русский;

— дальнейшее ознакомление со специальной и общеэкономической лексикой;

— развитие навыков ведения дискуссии и умения делать сообщения по экономической проблематике.

Пособие включает аутентичные материалы, которые подобраны по тематическому признаку и охватывают основные тенденции в мировой экономической системе. Тексты, предлагаемые в рамках одной темы отражают различные точки зрения на проблему, носят полемический характер и могут служить основой для дискуссии. Кроме того, тексты насыщены переводческими и лексическими трудностями, более глубокая отработка которых может быть осуществлена с помощью соответствующих упражнений.

Пособие имеет многоуровневую структуру и распределение материала организовано по принципу «от простого к сложному». Аналогичный подход сохраняется в рамках каждого отдельного раздела, поэтому материал может быть использован для обучения слушателей с разной языковой подготовкой.

Конкретные рекомендации по работе с предложенным учебным материалом приводятся в методической записке, а также в разделе по теории и практике реферирования.

II. МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЕ РЕКОМЕНДАЦИИ

Учебный материал по экономическому переводу для специалистов и магистрантов экономических вузов ориентирован на развитие навыков просмотрового, ознакомительного, поискового и аналитического чтения экономической литературы, написание рефератов и аннотаций, на дальнейшее совершенствование навыков перевода с английского на русский, на изучение узкоспециализированной лексики, а также на умение вести дискуссию и делать сообщения на экономические темы.

Для достижения этих целей в пособие включены тексты общего и специализированного экономического содержания, представляющие интерес как для перевода, так и для анализа проблемы.

Пособие состоит из нескольких разделов, подобранных по тематическому принципу. Оно включает ряд специализированных экономических тем, каждая из которых представлена целым рядом текстов для реферирования, и аннотированию. В отдельный раздел выделены грамматические трудности перевода.

Исходя из основной задачи обучения данной категории студентов, можно рекомендовать следующий порядок работы с экономическими текстами на английском языке. Условно эта работа разделяется на несколько этапов, причем поурочное распределение этих этапов; выбор заданий для аудиторной и домашней самостоятельной работы; объем материала, предлагаемого для перевода и реферирования; а также выбор и порядок следования тем должен быть индивидуализированы для каждой группы в зависимости от конкретных задач и ее специализации.

1 ЭТАП (pre-reading)	Предварительное, т.е. еще до чтения текста, введение в тему. Несколько общих тематических вопросов, заданных преподавателем, помогут лучшему пониманию проблематики текста.
П ЭТАП (skimming and scanning)	беглый просмотр текста для выявления основной идеи (skimming) путем быстрого прочтения первого и последнего абзацев, а иногда и первых предложений абзацев, идущих после подзаголовков, а также для поиска конкретной специальной информации (scanning), выраженной в цифрах, датах, терминах и т.д. Преподаватель проверяет точность найденных сведений, задавая конкретные вопросы по тексту.
Ш ЭТАП (reading)	внимательное чтение всего текста. Данный этап необходим в случае последующего письменного перевода, а также написания реферата и аннотации. Если же текст предлагается для перевода «с листа» (off-hand translation), то этот этап можно упразднить.
1У ЭТАП (translation)	перевод всего текста или отдельных его частей по усмотрению преподавателя. При этом, проверяя перевод, преподаватель первое время может просить студента указать на ключевые фрагменты тех или иных абзацев, смысловых блоков или частей текста. Это своего рода подготовка к реферированию. Кроме того, на данном этапе совершенствуются навыки перевода и закрепляется изучаемая специальная лексика. Безусловно, от этого этапа также можно отказаться, если студенты свободно ориентируются в английском тексте и вполне овладели навыками реферирования и аннотирования.
У ЭТАП (precis writing)	Написание рефератов и аннотаций с обязательной их проверкой и обсуждением в аудитории. Практические рекомендации по реферированию и аннотированию приводятся в следующем разделе.

По совершенно понятным причинам предварительная работа с английским текстом (этап 1 и П) ведется динамично и должна занимать лишь небольшую часть времени урока.

В заключение хотелось бы подчеркнуть, что предложенный порядок работы с материалом опирается на исследования и опыт многих специалистов, но вместе с тем носит чисто рекомендательный характер. Творческий подход, профессиональная интуиция и возможности конкретной группы студентов помогут преподавателю найти оптимальный путь для достижения поставленной цели обучения.

III. ОСНОВЫ РЕФЕРИРОВАНИЯ И АННОТИРОВАНИЯ.ПРАКТИЧЕСКИЕ РЕКОМЕНДАЦИИ.

Объем иноязычной информации, поступающей в наши дни, неуклонно растет. Полный перевод ее часто невозможен или нецелесообразен.

Другими способами обработки информации является реферирование и аннотирование. Кроме того, реферативная деятельность обладает высоким обучающим потенциалом. Она не только активизирует навыки различных видов чтения, а требует действий по смысловому свертыванию текста, что, в свою очередь, приводит к мотивированному усвоению иноязычного материала и преодолению возникающих при этом лексико-грамматических трудностей.

Рефератом мы называем текст, построенный на основе смысловой компрессии первоисточника с целью передачи его главного содержания. В рефератах не допускаются субъективные оценки переводчика — референта, а материал излагается с позиции автора исходного текста и не содержит никаких элементов интерпретации.

Таким образом, можно дать следующее определение понятию реферат: реферат (precis) — это сжатое и обобщенное изложение содержания материала в соответствии с назначением реферата и полученным заданием. Из этого видно, что реферирование целиком построено на законах компрессии текста, т.е. на тех принципах, которые обуславливают понимание текста при чтении. Предельной краткости и необходимой полноты изложения содержания первоисточника позволяют достичь работа с так называемыми ключевыми фрагментами (ключевые слова, словосочетания и предложения).

Выделяются два основных типа рефератов: реферат-конспект и реферат-резюме.

Реферат-конспект — это подробное изложение материала (как в конспекте) с обобщением однородных фактов.

Реферат-резюме — сжатое изложение содержания первоисточника и, следовательно, большая степень обобщения, выделение главного и нового (он граничит с аннотацией).

Аннотация представляет собой предельно краткое изложение главного содержания текста оригинала и передает в нескольких строчках представление о его тематике. Назначение аннотации в том, чтобы дать возможность специалисту составить мнение о целесообразности более детального ознакомления с данным материалом. Таким образом, можно дать следующее определение понятию аннотация: аннотация ( annotation ) — это предельно сжатая характеристика первоисточника, имеющая целью информировать о наличии материала на определенную тему.

Различают два основных типа аннотации: описательную и реферативную .

Описательная аннотация — это общая характеристика материала без конкретного развертывания ее содержания. Обычно она состоит из следующих частей:

— библиографическое описание материала (автор, название, выходные данные);

— тема;

— предельно сжатая характеристика материала.

Реферативная аннотация, помимо таких же разделов, как и описательная, выделяет также основную мысль, основные положения и выводы при очень высокой степени обобщения. Иными словами она отвечает не только на вопрос, о чем говорится в первоисточнике, но и что именно говорится в нем.

Для лучшего понимания всего вышесказанного остановимся подробнее на основных различиях между рефератом и аннотацией. Если назначение реферата — знакомить читателя с содержанием оригинала и таким образом замещать его, то аннотация дает представление только о теме первоисточника и облегчает поиск необходимой информации по заданному предмету. Реферат строится на основе ключевых фрагментов, выделяемых из текста подлинника с позиции его автора, т.е. без субъективной оценки реферата. Аннотация же пишется своими словами, а следовательно может предполагать критическое переосмысление материала.

И последнее, если объем реферата в среднем может составлять 10 % — 15 % от объема оригинала, то аннотация по объему часто не превышает 3-4 предложений. Что касается техники реферирования и аннотирования, то она в основном едина, с той лишь разницей, что степень обобщения при аннотировании значительно выше.

Остановимся на основных приемах используемых при реферировании и аннотировании:

1. Реферирование и аннотирование иноязычного материала неизбежно сопряжено с предварительным чтением, а иногда хотя бы с устным полным или выборочным переводом текста;

2. В процессе чтения и/или перевода текста выделяются ключевые фрагменты (ключевые слова, словосочетания и предложения). Ключевые фрагменты либо подчеркиваются либо, выписываются из текста оригинала. При выделении ключевого фрагмента следует опираться на следующие правила (см. пример на стр. 12)

а) ключевые фрагменты не связаны друг с другом (higher productivity/better division of labour/bigger economies of scale);

б) форма, в которой записывается ключевой фрагмент может не совпадать с оригиналом (оригинал: to boost productivity; ключевой фрагмент higher productivity);

в) число и порядок следования ключевых фрагментов произволен. Иногда в одном абзаце можно выделить несколько ключевых фрагментов, в то же время ряд абзацев могут не содержать ни одного;

г) фиксирование ключевых фрагментов требует извлечения имплицитного смысла (от латинского implicitum — подразумеваемый, невыраженный, скрытый). Если информация эксплицитна (открытая, явная, непосредственная), то читающий ищет необходимые обобщения в тексте. Если информация имплицитна, то действия читающего приобретают характер умозаключений или обобщения суждений, содержащихся в тексте. Понимание имплицитного смысла требует ряда умений:

— умение отвлечься от словарного значения данного слова или словосочетания и опереться на более широкий контекст (… «allowing low-wage countries to specialise in labour — intensive tasks»… — здесь слово tasks следует переводить как отрасли или виды производства );

— умение увидеть внутреннюю логическую связь между двумя высказываниями (Inflation would not surrender. Interest rates too low. — Информация никак не снижается, поскольку уровень ссудного процента слишком низок);

— умение восстановить пропущенные логические звенья (...«with the potential to boost productivity and living standards everywhere». Слово everywhere в данном контексте реконструируется в in the advanced and developing countries);

— умение сделать обобщение на основе ряда фактов и аргументов, которые приводит автор, но не обобщает их. («Delayering». «Retooling». «Focus on excellence». «Putting the client first». When it comes to jargon, the World Bank’s restructuring plan is indisputably world class. — Если взглянуть на программу структурной реорганизации Всемирного банка с точки зрения формулировок, употребляемых в отношении совершенствования его деятельности, то она первоклассна);

— умение пользоваться фоновыми знаниями для восполнения смысловых высказываний (To many, the global capital market is a truly wonderful thing. To firms, to investors and to those in the middle — the dealers and brokers who make trades happen — the global market, and the frenetic trading activity it generates, seems to promise a handsome living. В данном примере специальные знания помогут правильно понять значение слов «trades» и «trading» как «сделки и операции с ценными бумагами и другими финансовыми инструментами»).

3. Выделенные ключевые фрагменты можно перегруппировать и составлять логический план текста. При составлении и редактировании собственно текста реферата следует помнить, что реферат — это самостоятельный текст с собственной логикой изложение. Например, ключевые фрагменты, дублирующие друг друга, могут сливаться в один пункт, а ключевой фрагмент заключительного абзаца может быть перемещен в начало текста реферата.

4. При составлении реферата и аннотации необходимо уметь использовать и систематизировать обобщения содержания материала, которые имеются в готовом виде в самом первоисточнике. Но для референта главное овладеть самому основными приемами обобщения:

а) замена частного общим, видового понятия родовым, т.е. наиболее распространенные и универсальные способы обобщения;

б) нахождение общих признаков у ряда явлений и их объединение (особенно при наличии массы показателей и статистических данных);

в) сведение ряда явлений к их сущности или как это иначе называют «обобщение обобщений» (часто применяется при сводном аннотировании нескольких источников или очень дробного материала).

5. При составлении реферата и аннотации оформляются следующие сведения:

— русское название статьи (текста)

— название работы в оригинале

— имя автора

— название и выходные данные журнала (сборника)

— указание страниц в журнале (сборнике)

— указание на число рисунков, чертежей и схем в тексте оригинала.

Можно привести следующий пример необходимой компрессии при реферировании и аннотировании.

Проанализируем следующий абзац :

Whether all of this is for good or ill is a topic of heated debate. One, positive view is that globalisation is an unmixed blessing, with the potential to boost productivity and living standards everywhere. This is because a globally integrated economy can lead to a better division of labour between countries, allowing low-wage countries to specialise in labour-intensive tasks while high-wage countries use workers in more productive ways. It will allow firms to exploit bigger economies of scale. And with globalisation, capital can be shifted to whatever country offers the most productive investment opportunities, not trapped at home financing projects with poor returns.

Ключевые фрагменты :

— positive view;

— potential:

a) higher productivity and living standards

b) better division of labour

c) bigger economies of scale

d) capital can be shifted

e) productive investment;

В случае реферирования основную мысль данного абзаца можно с помощью компрессии передать следующим образом:

Сторонники глобализации видят в ней потенциал роста производительности труда и уровня жизни; углубление разделения труда и экономию на масштабе; сводное движение капитала и эффективные инвестиции в развитие производства.

Данный абзац характеризуется высокой информативностью, поэтому компрессия здесь минимальная. Но в ряде случаев основное содержание одного или даже нескольких абзацев в совокупности можно передать одним предложением.

В случае аннотирования компрессия будет максимальной:

Сторонники глобализации связывают с ней ряд позитивных тенденций.

IV. ТЕКСТЫ ДЛЯ РЕФЕРИРОВАНИЯ, АННОТИРОВАНИЯ И ПЕРЕВОДА

UNIT I. GLOBALISATION

Text A.

ONE WORLD ?

1. Дайте ответы на следующие 1.What is meant by globalisation?

вопросы без предварительного 2. Is this phenomenon as new as it is generally

чтения текста : held out to be?

3. Is globalisation for good or ill?

2. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. What are positive and critical views of

вопросы после беглого просмотра globalisation?

текста 2. Prove that international economic

integration is not unprecedented.

3. Could the trend towards globalisation

be reversed ?

3. Прочитайте следующий текст и найдите ключевые слова и предложения в каждом абзаце:

ONE WORLD?

For good or ill, globalisation has become the economic buzz-world of the 1990s. National economies are undoubtedly becoming steadily more integrated as cross-border flows of trade, investment and financial capital increase. Consumers are buying more foreign goods, a growing number of firms now operate across national borders, and savers are investing more than ever before in far-flung places.

Critics of globalisation take a gloomier view. They predict that increased competition from low-wage developing countries will destroy jobs and push down wages in today’s rich economies. There will be a “race to the botom” as countries reduce wages, taxes, welfare benefits and environmental controls to make themselves more “competitive”. Pressure to compete will erode the ability of governments to set their own economic policies. The critics also worry about the increased power of financial markets to cause economic havoc, as in the European currency crises of 1992 and 1993, Mexico in 1994-1995 and South-East Asia in 1997.

The aim of this survey is to look in detail at these controversial arguments on each side of the globalisation debate. But it is necessary first of all to examine what precisely is meant by globalisation, how far it has proceeded, and whether the phenomenon is as new as it is generally held out to be. Some of the answers are surprising.

Old news

Despite much loose talk about the “new” global economy, today’s international economic integration is not unprecedented. The 50 years before the first world war saw large crossborder flows of goods, capital and people. That period of globalisation, like the present one, was driven by reductions in trade barriers and by sharp falls in transport costs, thanks to the development of railways and steamships. The present surge of globalisation is in a way a resumption of that previous trend.

That earlier attempt at globalisation ended abruptly with the first world war, after which the world moved into a period of fierce trade protectionism and tight restrictions on capital movement. During the early 1930s, America sharply increased its tariffs, and other countries retaliated, making the Great Depression even greater. The volume of world trade fell sharply. International capital flows virtually dried up in the inter-war period as governments imposed capital controls to try to insulate their economies from the impact of a global slump.

Capital controls were maintained after the second world war, as the victors decided to keep their exchange rates fixed — an arrangement known as the Bretton Woods system, after the American town in which it was approved. But the big economic powers also agreed that reducing trade barriers was vital to recovery. They set up the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which organised a series of negotiations that gradually reduced import tariffs. GATT was replaced by the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 1995. Trade flourished.

In the early 1970s, the Bretton Woods system collapsed and currencies were allowed to “float” against one another at whatever rates the markets set. This signalled the rebirth of the global capital market. America and Germany quickly stopped trying to control the inflow and outflow of capital. Britain abolished capital controls in 1979 and Japan (mostly) in 1980. However, France and Italy did not abandon the last of their restrictions on cross-border investment until 1990 This is part of the reason why continental Europeans tend to worry more about the power of global capital markets: America has been exposed to them for much longer.

Two forces have been driving these increased flows of goods and money. The first is technology. With the costs of communication and computing falling rapidly, the natural barriers of time and space that separate national markets have been falling too. The cost of a three-minute telephone call between New York and London has fallen from $300 (in 1996 dollars) in 1930 to less than $1 today. The cost of computer processing power has been falling by an average of 30% a year in real terms over the past couple of decades.

The second driving force has been liberalisation. As a result of both the GATT negotiations and unilateral decisions, almost all countries have lowered barriers to foreign trade. Most countries have welcomed international capital as well. Although liberalisation has proceeded at different speeds in different places, the trend is worldwide. Only a handful of renegades still try to isolate themselves. Over the past decade, trade has increased twice as fast as output, foreign direct investment three times as fast and cross-border trade in shares ten times as fast.

The trend towards globalisation is clear. But its extent can be. exaggerated. Consider in turn the markets for products, capital and workers. One measure of the extent to which product markets are integrated is the ratio of trade to output. This has increased sharply in most countries since 1950. But by this measure Britain and France are only slightly more open to trade today than they were in 1913, while Japan is less open now than then.

Another gauge of the degree оf product-market integration is the extent to which prices converge across countries. In theory, free trade should push prices together as competition forces high-cost producers to lower their prices. Studies show, however, that large divergences in price often persist for long periods. Laptop computers and Levi’s jeans, for example, are consistently cheaper in America than in Europe or Japan.

This reflects a variety of factors, including tastes, transport costs, differences in taxes and inefficient distribution networks. But some of the difference is due to the persistence of import barriers.

Product markets are still nowhere near as integrated across borders as they are within nations. Consider the example of trade between the United States and Canada, one of the least restricted trading borders in the world. On average, trade between a Canadian province and an American state is 20 times smaller than domestic trade between two Canadian provinces, after adjusting for distance and income levels. For all the talk about a single market, the Canadian and American markets remain substantially segmented from one another. For other countries this is truer still.

The financial markets are not yet truly integrated either. Despite the newfound popularity of international investing, capital markets were by some measures more integrated at the start of this century than they are now. During the 30 years before the first world war, when most currencies were tied to gold, huge sums flooded from Western Europe into North America, Argentina and Australia. The net outflow of capital from Britain (i.e. its current-account surplus) averaged 5 % of GDP over the period 1880-1913, reaching almost 10 % of GDP at its peak. In comparison, Japan’s notoriously «excessive» current-account surplus has averaged only 2-3 % of GDP over the past decade.

Foreign direct investment, involving control of businesses or property across national borders, is no new phenomenon either. Today, it equals about 6 % of the total domestic investment of rich economies. In the decade before 1914, by contrast, direct investments of British capitalists abroad were almost as big as their direct investments at home.

Home work

While product and capital markets have become increasingly integrated, labour markets have not. Tens of millions of people currently work outside their home countries. Yet labour is less mobile than it was in the second half of the 19th century, when some 60m people left Europe for the New World. Even within the European Union, which gives citizens of any member state the right to work and live in any other, only a small proportion of workers ventures across national borders. Language, cultural barriers, and incompatible educational and professional qualifications all combine to keep labour markets national.

This does not mean that globalisation is just a myth. In some new and different ways the world economy is becoming more internationally integrated that it was at the turn of the century.

For one thing, large parts of the world did not participate in the pre-1914 global economy. Today, more economies than ever before have opened their borders to trade and investment. Not only developed countries, but developing in Asia and Latin America have embraced market-friendly reforms.

A second difference is that whereas 19th -century globalisation was driven by falling transport costs, it is now being driven by plunging communication costs. This has created new ways to organise firms at a global level, with closer international integration than in the past.

Cheap and efficient communication networks allow firms to locate different parts of their production process in different countries while remaining in close contact. Modern information technology also reduces the need for physical contact between producers and consumers and therefore allows some previously untradable services to be traded. Any activity that can be conducted on a screen or over the telephone, from writing software to selling airline tickets, can be carried out anywhere in world, linked to head office by satellite and computer. Even medical advice or education can now be sold at a distance over telecoms networks.

A third difference is that although net flows of global capital may be smaller than in the past, gross international financial flows are much bigger. Cross-border sales and purchases of bonds and equities by American investors have also risen.

As yet, the world economy is still far from being genuinely integrated. In future, however, new technology is likely to encourage further integration. The Internet and its companion technologies, for example, are expected to help to make markets more transparent, allowing buyers and sellers to compare prices in different countries. Telecommunication prices will fall even more sharply over the next decade.

So technology will continue to power the globalisation train. This poses a challenge for governments. By allowing more efficient use of world resources, globalisation should boost average incomes. However, the costs and the benefits will be unevenly distributed. Many people — notably unskilled manufacturing workers in rich economies — will find the demand for their labour falling as the jobs they used to do are performed more cheaply abroad. This raises the risk of a political backlash against free trade and capital flows.

Could the trend towards globalisation be reversed a second time? Doing so might be more difficult than before. New technology and new types of financial instruments make it tricky for governments to impose effective capital controls. Likewise, the growth of multinational firms that can switch production from one country to another would make it harder to erect effective trade barriers.

New technology also creates distribution channels that protectionist governments will find it hard to block. A French government that wanted to shelter its film industry from American competition by restricting imports may find it impossible to stop foreign films being beamed by satellite or passed over the Internet. Foreign films will be able to squeeze through electronic windows that cannot be closed.

Another reason to suppose that globalisation is more durable this time around is that free trade is built upon firmer institutional foundations than earlier in this century. At that time, free trade proceeded largely through bilateral treaties rather than multilateral institutions such as the WTO. Withdrawal from the WTO would not be done lightly.

Nonetheless, past experience shows how quickly faith in markets and openness can be overwhelmed by big economic shocks, such as the Great Depression of the 1930s. Faced with another severe downturn, some governments may still be foolish enough to try to use protectionism and capital controls to shield workers and firms from global forces. That would also shield economies from powerful sources of growth.

VOCABULARY

1. globalisation	глобализация, интеграция мировой экономики
2. cross-border	межнациональный, международный
3. productivity	производительность труда
4. living standard (s)	жизненный уровень
5. division of labour	разделение труда
6. economies of scale	экономия на масштабе
7. productive investment	эффективные инвестиции в развитие производства.
8. flows (of goods, capital, e.t.c.)	движение, потоки (товаров, капитала и т.д.)
9 .trade barriers	торговые барьеры
10. protectionism	протекционизм
11. restrictions	ограничения
12. Great Depression	Великая депрессия
13. slump	экономический спад
14. capital control (s)	ограничение движения капитала
15. fixed exchange rate (s)	твердый валютный курс (ы)
16. Bretton Woods (system)	Бреттонвудское соглашение о системе твердых валютных курсов
17. General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)	Генеральное соглашение по тарифам и торговле (ГАТТ)
18. World Trade Organisation (WTO)	Всемирная торговая организация (ВТО)
19 .to «float»	«плавать» (о валютных курсах)
20. floating exchange rates	плавающие валютные курсы
21. inflow of capital	приток капитала
22. outflow of capital	отток капитала
23. liberalisation	либерализация
24. product market	товарные рынки
25. ratio of trade to output	(со)отношение объема торговли к объему выпуска продукции
26. inefficient distribution network	неэффективная сеть сбыта (реализации товаров и услуг)
27 .current account surplus	положительное сальдо платежного баланса по текущим операциям
28. capital market	рынок капитала
29. labour market	рынок рабочей силы

4. Переведите отрывок « Old News » с английского на русский язык.

5. Напишите реферат и аннотацию к данному тексту.

Text B.

1. Прочитайте и переведите следующий текст:

EXPAND THE DEBATE ON GLOBALISATION.

Asia’s financial crisis is stoking the debate over globalization. It can be a whirlwind of trade and investment that builds economies and spurs development in even the world’s poorest nations. But it can also bring economies low overnight.

Globalization’s effects have been overwhelmingly good. Spurred by unprecedented liberalization, world trade continues to expand faster than overall global economic output, inducing a wave of productivity and efficiency and creating millions of jobs. Even more impressive is the stunning increase in international investment that is building roads, airports and factories in poorer countries. In the 1990s alone, foreign investors have poured $1 trillion into developing economies. This trade and investment is raising living standards in some countries faster than many thought possible. Until recently, it took at least two generations for living standards to double, but in China, living standards now double every 10 years.

But while globalization has raised living standards for many, it has made life more difficult for those dislocated by change and it threatens to leave part of the world behind. It is no coincidence that the disappointing economic performance in much of Sub-Saharan Africa reflects a failure to integrate into the world economy and, thus, to trade successfully and attract investment.

The foremost challenge of globalization is to ensure that its fruits extend to all countries. Most forecasts say that economic growth in the developed world will continue to slow, and that expanding markets in developing countries are needed to ensure that living standards continue to rise.

The second challenge of globalization is to allay the fear that the growth it brings is inherently destabilizing. The Asian crisis, threatening some of the most formidable economic competitors in the world, amplifies these fears. Nevertheless, the costs of being left behind by globalization are usually much greater than the losses caused by instability.

The third challenge of globalization is to address the concern in wealthier nations that international competition will harm living standards. There is ample evidence that stagnant wages in the United States and unemployment in Europe have other causes — technological change, poor education, Europe’s inflexible labor markets, high taxes and an aging workforce. But polls show more and more people believe the causes lie in worldwide trade and investinent. This undermines the kind of leadership needed to respond to the Asian financial crisis and deal with other global pioblems.

The fourth challenge of globalization is to tackle the problems complicated by expanded trade and investment-environmental degradation, disease, migration, crime and terrorism. Our ability to confront this set of new, post-Cold War challenges will require greater global cooperation.

There is no doubt that globalization of trade and investment has in some ways weakened the independence of national governments and made life less predictable for many individuals. But those who would erect barriers to trade and investment to try to recapture an earlier era of independence confuse the cause and effect of globalization. In pursuit of higher living standards, we have created this new world of global markets and instant communication to deliver gains in efficiency and competition that are beyond the powers of national governments. The goal is not.to disenfran-disenfranchise the individual, but to lower costs, broaden choices, deliver more capital and open more markets, giving the individual more power to control his or her destiny.

The challenges raised by globalization yield no easy answers. They strain the abilities of national governments to confront them independently.

VOCABULARY

1. to stoke debate	вызывать бурные споры
2. whirlwind of trade and investment	высокая степень активизации мировой торговли и инвестиций
3. challenges of globalisation	1) движущие силы глобализации; 2) цели (задачи), возникающие в условиях глобализации (обеспечить, достичь, преодолеть и т.д. в зависимости от контекста)
4. to address the concern ...	зд. решить проблемы, которые вызывают беспокойство (заняться проблемами...)
5. to tackle the problems	решить проблемы
6. post Cold — War challenges	зд. проблемы и тенденции в период после холодной войны
7. disenfranchise	лишить гражданских прав зд. Лишить национальных различий.
8. overall global economic output	общемировой ВВП

2. Напищите аннотацию к данному тексту.

Text C.

1. Прочитайте и найдите ключевые слова и предложения в следующем тексте:

GLOBAL CAPITALISM, R.I.P.?

Much of the world simply does not have the values needed for free markets. We pretended otherwise. Now comes the reckoning.

Tumbling world stock markets contained a large, though muffled, message: global capitalism — whose triumph once seemed inevitable — is now in full retreat, perhaps for many years.

Who would have guessed this? After the cold war, global capitalism offered a powerful vision of world prosperity and, ultimately, democracy. Multinational companies and investors would pour technology and capital into poorer regions, creating a transnational mass market of middle-class consumers who would drive Toyotas, watch CNN, eat Big Macs — and, incidentally, demand more freedom. World trade and investment did indeed surge, but not with the expected consequences. Global capitalism is now destabilizing the economies of poor countries and inflicting large losses on investors in rich countries. Worse are the collapses of economies around the world.

The only good news is that most American economists think-perhaps naively — that the United States will avoid a recession. The Blue Chip Economic Indictors survey of 49 economists finds only one predicting a slump. “Demand is strong, inflation is low and employment is high,” says Joel Prakken of Macroeconomic Advisers. But dangers are rising. Exports could disappoint, because economies in Latin America and Canada are weakening. With Asia, these areas buy nearly three quarters of U.S. exports.

And economists may underestimate how much the dropping stock market demoralizes consumers and cuts their spending. David Wyss of Standard & Poor’s DRI says that the total value of U.S. stocks (the market’s “capitalization”) has dropped about $2 trillion since the market’s peak. Wyss figures that consumers reduce current spending by 2.5 cents for each dollar of stock losses. The math: 2.5 percent of $2 trillion is $50 billion. That’s less than I percent of GDP. What might undo such estimates? Perhaps this: because more Americans own stocks than ever, the adverse effect could be larger than ever.

But however the U.S. economy fares, global capitalism is under siege. The idea was to open up markets to trade and foreign investment. But some markets were being shut.

What went wrong?

On one level, the answer is simple. Countries became overdependent on foreign capital, which, having entered in huge amounts, is trying to leave the same way. What initially triggered the reversal was the recognition that much foreign money had been squandered through «crony capitalism» or misguided industrial policies. Asia was dotted with empty office buildings and surplus factories. Overseas banks refused to renew their loans; mutual-fund investors sold shares and converted their funds back into dollars.

But now the fear of capital flight is feeding on itself — and spreading to Latin America. If people fear the Mexican peso will be devalued, they may convert pesos into dollars. The frightened include locals, not just foreign investors. But countries need hard currencies to pay for imports; and they can’t afford a depositor run on their banks. High interest rates are one way to halt the process by rewarding people for keeping funds in local currencies. The trouble, of course, is that punitive interest rates also crush local economies.

If a few economies face this squeeze, it’s their problem; if many economies do, it’s everyone’s problem. This is happening. The threat of capital flight has shoved so many countries toward austerity that it’s inducing a worldwide slump. And, again, the process feeds on itself. Feeble economic growth has depressed prices of raw-material exports.

Earning less abroad, the raw-material exporters must slow their economies to cut imports. This depresses U.S. exports and the profits of multinational companies operating in these countries.

Thus does the Third World’s distress threaten the First World’s stock markets and prosperity. But global capitalism’s failure demands a deeper explanation. After all, capitalism is supposed to excel at allocating investment funds efficiently. In this case, it didn’t. The deeper explanation is that market capitalism is not just an economic system. It is also a set of cultural values that emphasizes the virtue of competition, the legitimacy of profit and the value of freedom. These values are not universally shared. Other countries have organized economic systems around different values and politics.

As a result, spreading capitalism is not simply an exercise in economic engineering. It is an assault on other nations’ culture and politics that almost guarantees a collision. Even when countries adopt some trappings of capitalism, they may not embrace the basic values that make the system work. This is what happened. Led by the U.S., global agencies (the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund) sought to persuade poorer countries to become more open to trade and global capital. These countries tried to maximize the benefits of the process while minimizing changes to their politics and commerce.

Mutual deception flourished. Countries like Korea and Russia pretended that they were changing more than they had. American, European and Japanese bankers, executives and government officials pretended the claims were true—or might become true. Loans were made on the basis of incomplete or faulty financial statements. Or they were made on the faith that, if a loan went sour, someone (the government, the IMF) would cover the losses.

Global capitalism became a dangerous hybrid. On the one hand, investors committed huge sums and expected high returns. On the other, the money often went — through bank loans, bond issues and stock offerings — to borrowers who were not operating by strict rules of efficiency or profit and loss. “Crony” capitalism often meant corruption: contracts won with bribes; favoritism for the well-connected.

But capital flowed freely while optimism and self-deception prevailed. Banks collected interest on loans. “Emerging market” mutual funds rose, because local stocks were buoyed by new investment money. While everyone enjoyed profits, there was a suspension of disbelief. Now comes the reckoning. Capital flight has forced most developing countries to scramble to conserve scarce foreign exchange.

All their choices are bad. Still, some U.S. economists see currency controls as a temporary way of avoiding high-interest rate austerity. A gentler way to achieve the same result would be debt relief: global bankers would write down loans, easing the repayment burden. But so far, banks have shown little interest. A third approach is to attract new long-term capital to replace old short-term capital. But developing countries are reluctant to sell too much of their economic bases to foreigners at fire-sale prices.

Countries cannot expand their economies unless they replenish their foreign-exchange reserves of hard currencies. The IMF- which provides temporary hard-currency loans — has focused only on “reforms” that would enable countries to attract new capital. It might also usefully emphasize debt relief so that the burden of bad lending would be shared between creditors and debtors. But preventing an American or European slump is no less important; either one would deepen the world economy’s downturn. The danger might ease if the Federal Reserve and Germany’s Bundesbank lowered interest rates. As yet, they show no signs of doing so.

Even if the worst doesn’t occur, the world will never be the same. Global capitalism won’t soon regain its aura of infallibility. There was nothing wrong with the theory. Free trade and the free movement of capital would, in a world where everyone worshiped efficiency and profits, enrich all nations. The trouble is that we do not live in such a world.

VOCABULARY

1. R.I.P. (requiescat in pace = rest in peace)	покойся в мире (надгробная надпись)
2. transnational mass market	транснациональный широкий рынок
3. destabilizing	дестабилизирующий, нарушающий стабильность
4 .inflicting large losses	приводящий к значительным убыткам
5. collapses of economies	зд. резкое ухудшение экономических показателей в странах
6. Blue Chip Economic Indictors	обзор (анализ) деятельности ведущих компаний (США)
7. total value of U.S. stocks	общая стоимость акций компаний США
8. capitalization	капитализация
9. «crony capitalism»	зд. капитализм, основанный на личных связях
10. surplus factories	зд. Неиспользованные производственные мощности
11. mutual fund	взаимные (паевые) фонды
12. to convert	конвертировать (валюту)
13. capital flight	зд. отток капитала
14. … «a depositor run on their banks»	зд.… «изъятие вкладов из их банков»
15. interest rate	ссудный процент
16. austerity	жесткие меры
17. economic engineering	зд. управление экономикой; проведение определенной экономической политики
18. finacial statements	финансовые отчеты
19. sour loan (bad loan)	непогашенный займ
20. to cover losses	покрывать (компенсировать) убытки
21. return (s)	доход (ы)
22. bond issue (s)	выпуск облигаций
23. stock offering (s)	выпуск новых акций
24 .corruption	коррупция
25. debt relief	списание или отсрочка долговых обязательств
26 .long-term capital	долгосрочные инвестиции (капитал)
27. short-term capital	краткосрочные инвестиции (капитал)
28. fire-sale prices	«бросовые» цены; заниженные цены
29. foreign-exchange reserves	валютные резервы; резервы иностранной валюты
30 .hard currency	твердая валюта

2. Переведите текст.

3. Напишите реферат и аннотацию к данному тексту.

« Globalisation »

Topics for discussion

1. The growing integration of national economies is said to have changed the way the world works.

2. The extent of globalisation is exaggerated.

3. Today’s international economic integration is not unprecedented.

4. New technology creates distribution channels that protectionist governments will find it hard to block.

5. Free trade is built upon firmer multilateral institutional foundations (ex. WTO).

6. An attemp to shield economies in face of another crisis would also shield them from powerful sources of growth.

7. Tumbling world stock markets have sent a message: global capitalism is now in full retreat.

1. Дайте ответы на следующие 1.What is world trade?

вопросы без предварительного 2. Is international trade the most obvious

чтения текста : manifistation of a globalising world

economy ?

2. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. Why does it make sense for

вопросы после беглого просмотра countries to trade goods and services ?

текста : 2. How much trade do they do ?

3. And why are there obstacles to

freer trade ?

3. Прочитайте и найдите ключевые слова и предложения в следующем тексте:

TRADE WINDS.

Time was when trade flows were of interest mainly economic to experts and executives of big corporations. But over the past few years, the movement goods and services across national boundaries has become the subject of intense public attention all over the world. To the public at large, trade is the most obvious manifestation of a globalising world economy.

Measured by the volume of imports and exports, the world economy has become increasingly integrated in the years since the second world war. A fall in barriers to trade has helped stimulate this growth. The volume of world merchandise trade is now about 16 times what it was in 1950, while the world’s total output is only five-and-a-half times as big. The ratio of world exports to GDP has climbed from 7% to 15%.

Virtually all economists, and most politicians, would agree that freer trade has been a blessing. However, the economists and politicians would probably give quite different reasons for thinking so.

Politicians, by and large, praise greater trade because it means more exports. This, in turn, purportesly means more jobs — and, if the exports involve sophisticated products such as cars or jet engines, more “good” jobs. The American government, zealous to promote exports, has even produced estimates that try to show how many new jobs are created by each $1 billion of American sales abroad.

This is misleading. A big export order may well cause an individual company to add workers, but it will have no effect on a country’s total employment, which is determined mainly by how fast the economy can expand without risking inflation and by microeconomic obstacles, such as taxes that deter employers from hiring or workers from seeking jobs. America, where exports are a relatively small fraction of GDP, has fuller employment than Germany, where exports loom larger.

Gains from trade

To economists, the real benefits of trade lie in importing rather than in exporting. Politicians frequently urge consumers to favour domestically made goods, and portray a widening trade deficit as a Bad Thing. But economists know that the only reason for exporting is to earn the wherewithal to import. As James Mill, one of the first trade theorists, explained in 1821:

The benefit which is derived from exchanging one commodity for another, arises, in all cases, from the commodity received, not the commodity given.

This benefit arises even if one country can make everything more cheaply than all others. The basic theory that explains this, the principle of comparative advantage, has existed since Mill’s day. His contemporary, David Ricardo, usually gets the credit for expounding it.

To see how this theory works, think about why two countries — call them East and West — might gain from trading with one another. Suppose, for simplicity, that each has 1,000 workers, and each makes two goods: computers and bicycles.

West’s economy is far more productive than East’s. To make a bicycle, West needs the labour of two workers; East needs four. To make a computer, West uses ten workers while East uses 100. Suppose that there is no trade, and that in each country half the workers are in each industry. West produces 250 bicycles and 50 computers. East makes 125 bikes and five computers.

Now suppose that the two countries specialise. Although West makes both bikes and computers more efficiently than East, it has a bigger edge in computer-making. It now devotes most of its resources to that industry, employing 700 workers to make computers and only 300 to make bikes. This raises computer output to 70 and cuts bike production to 150. East switches entirely to bicycles, turning out 250. World output of both goods has risen. Both countries can consume more of both if they trade.

At what price? Neither will want to import what it could make more cheaply at home. So West will want at least five bikes per computer; and East will not give up mpre than 25 bikes per computer. Suppose the terms of trade are fixed at 12 bicycles per computer and that 120 bikes are exchanged for ten computers. Then West ends up with 270 bikes and 60 computers, and East with 130 bicycles and ten computers. Both are better off than they would be if they did not trade.

This is true even though West has an “absolute advantage” in making both computers and bikes. The reason is that each country has a different “comparative advantage”. West’s edge is greater in computers than in bicycles. East, although a costlier producer in both industries, is a relatively less-expensive maker of bikes. So long as each country specialises in products in which it has a comparative advantage, both will gain from trade.

Fair deal

Some critics of trade say that this theory misses the point. They argue that trade with developing countries, where wages tend to be lower and work hours longer than in Europe and North America, is “unfair”, and will wipe out jobs in high-wage countries.

It is generally accepted that trade with poor countries has been one of the factors reducing the wages of unskilled workers, relative to skilled ones, in the United States. That said, the threat to rich-country workers from developing-country competition is often overstated.

For a start, it is important not to confuse absolute and comparative advantage. Even if developing countries were cheaper producers of everything under the sun, they could not have a comparative advantage in everything. There would still be work for people in high-wage countries to do.

Moreover, it is not true that countries with cheap labour always have lower costs. Wage differences generally reflect differences in productivity; companies in low-wage countries often need far more labour to produce a given amount of output, and must deal with less efficient communications and transportation systems. In most cases hourly wages are not decisive in determining where a product is made.

Suppose that the “fair traders” succeed in eradicating international differences in production costs, so that a given product cost precisely the same to make in different countries. In that case, no country would have a comparative advantage, and hence there would be no trade. Rich-country workers, who are also consumers, would lose.

At first blush, real-world trade patterns would seem to challenge the theory of comparative advantage. Most trade occurs between countries which do not have huge cost differences. America’s biggest trading partner, for instance, is Canada. Well over half the exports from France, Germany and Italy go to other European Union countries. Moreover, these countries sell similar things to each other: cars made in France are exported to Germany, while German cars go to France, dependent largely upon consumers’ differing tastes rather than differences in costs.

The importance of geography and the role of similar but different products appealing to diverse tastes expand our understanding of why trade occurs. But they do not overturn the fundamental insight of the theory of comparative advantage. The agricultural exports of Australia, say, or Saudi Arabia’s reliance on oil, clearly stem from their natural resources. Poorer countries tend to have relatively more unskilled labour, so they tend to export simple manufactures, such as clothing. So long as relative production costs differ between countries, there are gains to be had from trade.

Enter the state

What is confusing, perhaps, is that comparative advantage is often the product of history and chance, not of differences in natural resources or workers’ skills. A stark example is America’s civil-aircraft industry. There is no God-given reason why the production costs of jumbo jets, relative to other goods and services, should be lower in America than in Japan. But they are: America’s early embrace of airmail, its large purchases of military aircraft and the great public demand for air travel in a large country all helped American plane makers get big early on, allowing them to achieve per-plane costs lower than those of foreign competitors.

A logical question follows: if comparative advantage can be created, why should governments not help create it? The idea is that through subsidies, such as those given by several European nations to finance the European-made Airbus passenger jets, governments can promote their own national champions and hobble foreign rivals. Since the late 1970 S. a stream of theoretical research has shown that governments can use such “strategic trade policy”, in principle, to make their own citizens better off.

The theoretical work, however, has shed little light on how, in practice, governments can select which industries to subsidise — and which to tax in order to finance the subsidy — so that, in the end, the country’s welfare is improved. And then there is the matter of politics: once the government has agreed to support “strategic” industries, every industry will assert its strategic importance in order to share in the pie. Under real-world political pressures, the allure of strategic trade policy fades quickly.

Governments’ intervention in trade is not limited to fine calculations of strategy. There is plenty of aid to politically sensitive industries, such as agriculture. And governments often rush to obstruct “unfair” competition from abroad.

Anti-dumping duties are a case in point. In theory, these are intended to keep foreign producers from “dumping” goods abroad at less than their cost of production, by subjecting the goods to extra import duties. In practice, they are a politically neat method of protecting a particular industry. Once the favoured weapon of rich-world governments, anti-dumping duties have been been taken up eagerly by developing countries .

Despite such machinations, world trade flows more freely than it used to. This is due mainly to international agreements under which governments agree to forswear trade barriers — most notably, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). All told, there have been eight rounds of gatt talks since 1947, in which countries have cut their import tariffs. Tariffs on manufactured goods are now down to around 4% in industrial countries.

The most recent gatt round, the Uruguay round, ended in 1993. The Uruguay round did much more than cut tariffs on goods. It heralded a big institutional change, creating the World Trade Organisation (WTO), which now boasts 132 members, as a successor to GATT.

It also made three big changes to the rules of world trade. First, it began the process of opening up the most heavily protected industries, agriculture and textiles.

Second, the Uruguay round vastly extended the scope of international trade rules. The rules were extended to cover services, as well as goods. New issues, such as the use of spurious technical barriers to keep out imports and the protection of foreigners’ “intellectual property”, such as patents and copyrights, were addressed for the first time.

Of these new agreements, the one in services is especially interesting. A lot of trade no longer involves putting things into a crate and sending them abroad on ships. Many services, can be traded internationally: a British construction firm can build an airport in Japan, and an American insurance company can sell its products in Germany.

Lots to talk about

The WTO EStimates that commercial-service trade was worth $1.2 trillion in 1996, around one-quarter of the value of trade in goods. The services agreement, plus a recent deal on telecommunications trade, should ease the barriers that limit such trade.

The third change wrought by the Uruguay round was the creation of a new system for settling disputes. In the past, countries could (and sometimes did) break GATT rules with impunity. Under the new system, decisions can be blocked only by a consensus of wto members. Once found guilty of breaking the rules (and after appeal) countries are supposed to mend their ways. This system so far seems to be working better than the old one, and is helping to build up the new institution’s credibility.

Despite these recent advances, there are plenty of difficulties ahead. China, the world’s second-biggest economy, and its 11th -biggest exporter, is not yet a member of the WTO, and talks on its accession have been difficult. Some countries, such as America and France, would like to see the wto address itself to the relationships between trade, labour standards and the environment. Others, notably India and Malaysia, are opposed. In 1996 the WTO’S members agreed to study the issues, but there is no agreement about whether the wto should go further.

VOCABULARY

1. trade flows	товарные потоки
2. imports	импортные товары (сравн. Import- импорт)
3. exports	экспортные товары (срав. export — экспорт)
4. merchandise trade	торговля товарами (в отличие от услуг)
5. total output	общий объем выпуска продукции
6. the ratio of world exports to GDP	отношение объема мирового экспорта к валовому внутреннему продукту
7. sophisticated products	высокотехнологические товары
8. sales	объем продаж
9. microeconomic	на микроэкономическом уровне
10. the real benefits of trade	реальные выгоды (преимущества), которые приносит торговля
11. domestically made goods	товары отечественного производства
12. trade deficit	дефицит торгового баланса
13. commodity	товар (главным образом сырьевые товары)
14. the principle of comparative advantage	принцип сравнительного преимущества
15. it has a bigger edge in computer making	имеет большее преимущество в производстве компьютеров
16. terms of trade	условия торговли
17. absolute advantage	абсолютное преимущество
18. skilled (unskilled) workers	квалифицированные/ неквалифицированные) рабочие
19. manufactures	готовые товары
20. natural resources	природные ресурсы
21. costs	издержки производства
22. subsidies	субсидии
23. government intervention	вмешательство государства
24. politically sensitive industries	отрасли важные с политической точки зрения
25. anti-dumping duties	анти-демпинговые пошлины
26. dumping	демпинг, продажа товаров за границей по заниженным ценам
27. cost of production	себестоимость
28. by subjecting the goods to extra import duties	облагая товары дополнительной импортной пошлиной
29. spurious technical barriers	зд. Искусственные (скрытые) технические барьеры
30. intellectual property	интеллектуальная собственность
31. patents and copyrights	патенты и авторские права
32. putting things into a crate	зд. Упаковать товары
33. commercial-service trade	торговля коммерческими услугами

4. Переведите отрывок «Enter the state».

5. Напишите реферат и аннотацию к данному тексту.

Text B.

1. Прочтите и переведите следующий текст:

THE RACE FOR THE BOTTOM

Cast your eye over a list of the bitterest trade rows of the past few years. Many concern not the traditional tools of protection, such as tariffs, import quotas and export subsidies, but differences in domestic regulations. For example, rules supposedly intended to protect consumers from dangerous products are sometimes seen by foreigners as trade barriers. Plenty of America’s frequent spats with Japan stem from American companies’ inability to break down the ties between Japanese manufacturers, distributors and retailers; Japan’s antitrust authorities, the Americans say, are slack.

Such disputes are likely to occur more often in future. One reason is the growth of international trade: as national economies become more integrated, firms will complain more often about the rising cost of having to adapt to different rules in different markets.

More serious is the growing worry, especially in America, that countries in which the regulation of labour standards tends to be weak, and protection of the environment scanty, will have an “unfair” advantage in trade and in attracting direct inviestment. Some attribute the fall in the wages of unskilled American males, at a time when rich workers’ earnings have risen, to competition from countries with slacker regulations. Thus fear of regulatory protection on the one hand, and cheap imports on the other, is making some politicians, businessmen and labour leaders argue that more harmonisation of national standards would be a good thing.

But would it? In some respects, perhaps. In a recent book Alan Sykes, a law professor at the University of Chicago, shows how national product standards and regulations can act as trade barriers. Frequently, he argues, there is no need for governments to intervene at all. The market can be relied upon to ensure, say, that software and computers are compatible, or that goods are of sufficient quality; if they are not, consumers will not buy them. In such instances, differences in national regulations that are unnecessary in the first place are likely to hobble trade.

Where regulation can be justified — for example, in ensuring that food is safe to eat or that children’s nightclothes are not inflammable — so might differences between countries’ rules. The reason, says Mr Sykes, is that consumers’ preferences and incomes vary from one country to the next: just as the market might produce goods of lower quality in poorer countries, or with differences tailored to national tastes, so governments should respond in the same way.

Yet such diversity has costs as well as benefits: firms find it expensive to ensure that their products comply with regulations in every country in which their wares are sold. Much of the time, reckons Mr Sykes, it is impossible to decide whether international differences are justified. Sometimes, though, they clearly are not. Too often, they are designed to coddle local producers at the expense of foreigners and the local consumers they are supposed to protect. In one celebrated example, the Thai government once used an anti-smoking campaign to justify taxes and restrictions on imported cigarettes — but not on locally made ones.

A new paper by Jagdish Bhagwati, an economist at Columbia University in New York, examines the demands for reducing other forms of diversity: structural differences between economies, notably Japan’s keiretsu system of closely related companies; labour standards; and environmental rules. Not surprisingly to anyone familiar with Mr Bhagwati’s work, he finds them less than compelling.

In part, he attributes America’s attacks on the structure of the Japanese economy, and its demands for stricter labour and green laws in poorer countries, to America’s diminishing share of world output. This makes it more reluctant to play by the rules of free trade.

Green is good, but

However, Mr Bhagwati also considers several more respectable motives for wanting harmonisation. Some Americans might argue that Mexico, say, should have higher standards of environmental protection, or tougher labour laws, because they believe that Mexicans have a right to the same air quality, or wages, as Americans. Or they might believe, out of concern for humanity as a whole, that Mexicans should do their bit to protect the global environment. Either way, some advocate the threat of trade sanctions to force Mexico to mend its ways.

Mr Bhagwati says this is wrong. It is fine, he says, for lobbyists to ask their own governments to cough up for good causes. But in this instance, they are asking them to make foreigners do the coughing. That makes it likely that those who would benefit from such trade protection will try to put more demands on poorer countries. Moreover, sanctions may not lead to less pollution or better working conditions: if Mexico spends more on clean air than it can afford, or raises its labour standards, its ability to grow and improve its record later will be damaged.

A further reason for wanting less diversity is a fear of a «race to the bottom» in environmental and labour standards. Multinational companies, the argument runs, will be attracted to countries with slack rules; countries where standards are high now will have to relax them or see factories close. The result? Miserably paid workers everywhere, and a ruined planet.

Maybe. Mr Bhagwati points out that the «bottom» is just one of several theoretically possible outcomes, and that the evidence of such a race is far from conclusive. If the American government wants to protect the environment and workers’ rights, he suggests, that rather than force poor countries to adopt higher standards, it would be better to require American firms operating abroad to adopt the same employment and environmental practices as they would at home. (Indeed, plenty already do.) If the idea is to make the planet greener and workers less poor, surely they would not object ?

VOCABULARY

1. harmonisation of national standards	гармонизация (выравнивание) национальных стандартов
2. to hobble trade	препятствовать, мешать торговле
3. wares	товары
4. to coddle local produces	зд. защищать местных производителей
5. diversity	зд. различия
6. keiretsu system = (cross-shareholding system)	система взаимного владения акциями
7. green laws	законы, регулирующие защиту окружающей среды

2. Напишите реферат и аннотацию по данной статье.

Text C.

1. Прочтите и переведите следующий текст:

SPOILLING WORLD TRADE.

Ây the sorry standards of much of this century, world trade looks in rude health. In the 1930 S, protectionism helped poison the world economy. After the second world war, tariffs and other trade barriers fell too slowly. However, over the past decade, many of the restrictions that stifle international commerce have been relaxed — thanks in large part to the lengthy Uruguay round of GATT talks, completed in 1993. Since 1990 world trade has grown by 6% a year, compared with less than 4% a year in the 1980s. As if to confirm the importance that governments now attach to the subject, there is now a World Trade Organisation (WTO), with 126 members, to police the new regime and to take the cause of free trade further into areas where there are still far too many restrictions, such as agriculture, services and investment. However, the greatest damage to free trads will be done by what is left often unmentioned: the threat “regionalism” poses to global trade.

Thanks to the recent explosion of regional trade arrangements, whose members agree to liberalise trade among themselves, the WTO is just one cook among many stirring the free-trade broth. Only a handful of the WTO’s members are not already part of some other local club. The European Union has 25 members and could soon have more. Some Americans are already looking for ways to meld together the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was formed with Mexico and Canada, with Mercosur, a customs union formed by four South American countries. Free-trade areas are planned in both South-East Asia and South Asia. And the 19-strong Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) forum has a grand plan for “free trade in the Pacific” by 2020.

Put this way, it sounds like something to applaud.What is it about their cumulative effect that should give pause for thought?

Most governments and many free traders believe that regional free-trade areas are a step in the right direction. Their defence is usually a mixture of economic principle, practical diplomacy and visionary politics. First, they ask, how can it be possible for countries to agree to scrap tariffs among themselves and not make trade freer? Then they argue that it is often easier to make a deal in a small group than in the unwieldy WTO. And, finally, trade agreements, they say, are politically valuable: if countries are tied by commerce, they are less likely to start shooting at each other.

The first of these arguments, plausible as it seems, is simply false. Regional “free-trade areas” need not make trade freer. By liberalising trade only with their neighbours, countries are by definition discriminating against those not lucky enough to be in the local club. Some goods will be imported from other members of the free-trade area at the expense of producers elsewhere; and members will begin to specialise in industries in which they lack comparative advantage.

Thus, the EU has a bloated farming industry while many producers in poorer countries suffer from not being able to serve its markets; and NAFTA has complicated “rules of origin” requirements, stipulating how much of a car needs to be made in Mexico to qualify as “NAFTAN”, and so enter America tariff-free. It is always better to liberalise without discrimination than to open up only to neighbours; sometimes, selective opening is worse than doing nothing at all.

The argument that, despite this danger, regional free trade areas represent a speedier, more practical way to proceed than does the WTO, is also open to question. True, the Uruguay round lasted more than seven years, and even now governments are struggling to finish off some outstanding negotiations, but slow progress bedevils regional arrangements, too. Despite much talk about expansion, the membership of NAFTA is stuck at three. APEC is moving at a glacial pace. Similarly, although the local clubs sometimes broach subjects long before the WTO (for instance, NAFTA has a treaty on foreign direct investment), they can also introduce possible bugbears (NAFTA also contains worrying agreements on standards for labour and environmental protection).

Moreover, the standard against which each regional trade pact needs to be measured has, mercifully, been raised. Back in the 1950s, the idea of a customs union in Europe (even if it was linked to an idea as awful as the common agricultural policy) was attractive because the alternative (no customs union at all) was plainly worse. Now, the emergence of the WTO has raised the hurdle: the architects of regional agreements know they will have to defend their plans against the charge of setting back liberal trade, and adjust their plans accordingly. That is fine, but it raises a question: would it not be simpler, after all, to make these deals at the WTO?

That leaves the last “political” argument — that bodies such as APEC and Mercosur have brought old enemies together. So they have. Again, however, would this be any less true of broader multilateral agreements? And there are limits to how far the goal of international amity, worthy as it is, should be used to justify economic lunacy. Invoking France’s post-war friendship with Germany seems an odd way to defend the EU’s limits on imports of Argentine chocolate.

If governments paid more attention to the threat of regionalism, that would be an exellent start. One excuse for their not doing so is that the WTO’s own system for policing regional trade agreements is a mess. At present, each new free-trade area or customs union is appraised by a committee, open to all members and with extremely vague terms of reference. Unsurprisingly, only six of the 70-odd committees formed since GATT began have ever reached a firm conclusion. It would be much better if agreements were examined by a smaller team of independent scrutineers with a precise mandate to assess the effect on world trade — and, in particular, the way that the new agreement treats outsiders.

It can be hard to say whether any free-trade area is so restrictive that its costs outweigh its benefits — though Mercosur, by some calculations, fails the test, and the case for the new ASEAN agreements also looks weak. Most agreements are a mixture of good and bad. The long-term challenge for the ministers about to meet in Singapore is thus twofold: to change the worst details in their own regional deals; and, even more important, to press ahead with multilateral trade liberalisation in the WTO. Governments now have a chance to make this new institution the strong catalyst for liberal trade which they have long said they wanted. They should seize the opportunity.

VOCABULARY

1. to liberalise trade	либерализировать торговлю; устранить ограничения
2. North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)	Североамериканское соглашение о свободной торговле (НАФТА)
3. Mercosur	таможенный союз 4-х южноамериканских стран (Меркосур)
4. Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)	Азиатскотихоокеанское экономическое сотрудничество
5. «rules of origin»	правила происхождения (товара)
6. outstanding negotiations	зд. незавершенные переговоры
7. multilateral agreements	многосторонние соглашения
8. ASEAN Association of South East Asia nations	Ассщциация государств Юго-Восточной Азии

2. Напишите реферат и аннотаацию данного текста..

«World Trade»

Topics for discussion

1. International trade is the most obvious manifistation of a globalising world.

2. Free trade is a blessing.

3. So long as each country specialises in products in which it has a comparative advantage, it will gain from trade.

4. Comparative advantage can be created through subsidies and «strategic trade policy».

5. International differences in market regulation, enviromental protection and competition policy are often said to make trade «unfair».

6. «Regionalism» poses the greatest threat to free trade.

UNIT III. ECONOMIC AND MONETARY POLICY.

THE FUTURE OF THE STATE ECONOMIC POLICY

Text A.

BEARING THE WEIGHT OF THE MARKET ?

1. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. Have the growing international flows

вопросы без предварительного of goods, services and money

чтения текста : diminished the power of the state ?

2. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. Does the growing world integration

вопросы после беглого просмотра reduce the freedom of governments

текста : to act ?

2. What are the instruments of

government involvement in the

economy ?

3. Прочитайте следующий текст и найдите ключевые слова и предложения в каждом абзаце:

BEARING THE WEIGHT OF THE MARKET ?

Most people in the advanced economies seem willing to accept, most of the time, that economic integration through international flows of trade and finance is a good thing. They acknowledge, for instance, that foreign investment can help poor economies to modernise, and that international competition helps to raise productivity and, at least in the aggregate, incomes as well.

Yet people also recognise the costs, such as unemployment or lower wages, that integration may force on particular groups at certain times. When weighing these costs of globalisation against the benefits, economists typically point to the role of government. Through taxes and public spending, they say, societies can use some of the extra income created by globalisation to cushion the losers. In principle, governments could go further, ensuring that everybody ended up better off. Which is very reassuring — unless it turns out that integration itself reduces the freedom of governments to act.

The view that globalisation makes it harder for governments to govern has come to be widely accepted. The basic idea is simple enough. Globalisation adds to the reach and power of the market: now even governments, not just firms and people, must bow down before the new master of worldwide competition.

A government might want to prohibit dangerous or undesirable working practices, for instance. But if it did, the affected industries might move abroad or shut down, because the new regulation could put domestic firms at a disadvantage in competition with foreign producers. Or suppose the government wants to raise taxes and spending. However popular more public spending may be with voters, the market might well forbid it. In the new global economy, people and firms can flee to other tax jurisdictions rather than paying an onerous tax.

Governments do not even have their former freedom to design their own social policies, the argument continues. The financial markets now sit as judge; if they deem that a new national health-care scheme or a massive education reform will prove too costly, they will punish the country with higher interest rates or a collapsing currency. In this way global market forces not only rule out the kind of compensation to losers that would make globalisation easier to live with, they also seem to challenge democracy itself.

If this thinking were correct, there would be good reason to oppose further globalisation, or to regret that the process has gone as far as it has. But it is not correct. In part it is muddled and in part it is simply wrong.

New thinking

During the 1980s, and especially since the collapse of the Soviet empire at the end of the decade, governments have changed the way they think about the role of the state. The failure of communism rattled faith even in far milder forms of socialism.

Governments had also learned from experience: evidence down the years suggested that ambitious economic intervention was often unsuccessful. Politicians in rich and poor countries alike, regardless of whether they were of “the left” or “the right”, began calling for lower taxes and public spending, for lighter regulation of industry, for privatisation of state-owned enterprises, and in general for their economies to be given greater “flexibility”.

In other words, governments have freely chosen to give market forces more sway, in the hope that this will raise living standards. It is odd therefore to say that the global economy has seized power from the state — and it is plain wrong to say that democratic rights have been trampled on.

Many would argue, however, that things are not so simple. Having started to liberalise their economies, governments were left with less power than they had expected. And having surrendered more control than they meant to, politicians found they could not go back. As a result, according to this view, globalisation is running out of control.

Governments themselves have done a lot to foster this idea. Nowadays no statement on economic policy is complete, it seems, without a declaration of impotence which says, in effect, “Our plans reflect not what we would like to do, but what the global market requires us to do.” Advancing technology adds to the sense of helplessness. Things that governments could once forbid or restrict -foreign borrowing; imports of computer software; pornography; political ideas — are now far harder to control because moderm communications have eroded the boundaries between nations.

It is true that when technology and liberalisation come together,governments can be taken by surprise. Anomalies appear, sometimes requiring further deregulation, at other times quiring new forms of regulation that previously mattered little. It is also true that governments have sometimes done the right things in the wrong order; liberalising cross-border flows of capital without updating regulation of the banking industry, for example, is one of the factors behind the recent series of financial crises in Asia.

One of the clearest examples of an apparently small measure of deregulation having larger consequences was Britain’s abolition of exchange controls in 1979. This let banks combine foreign capital and new financial technology, and thus compete more vigorously both with each other and with non-bank lenders, such as building societies. Soon, to enable these other lenders to fight back on equal terms, more rules had to be scrapped. This caused new problems — and so the process went on, until the rules that separated banks and building societies had been entirely removed. This inadvertently radical deregulation, and the financial competition it engendered, was instrumental in Britain’s boom and bust of the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Even so, the view that governments today stand helpless before the gale of international market forces is a gross exaggeration. Certainly, it is often a useful idea for governments to take up — what more powerful argument could there be against those opposing any given change of policy than to say “we have no choice”? But, useful as the claim may be, the evidence shows that it is not in fact true.

Like Topsy

The best and simplest measure of a government’s involvement in the economy is public spending. In rich industrial countries this has followed a persistently upward trend since the latter part of the 19th century.

Public spending increased as a share of national income in the 40 years before the first world war, a time when the world economy was arguably more open to trade and international flows of capital than it is today. Between 1918 and 1939, when barriers to trade and capital flows were high, spending as a share of national income rose further. Since the second world war, as economies have once more been opened to the outside world, the trend of rising expenditure has continued. The increase in the economic role of the state has been especially rapid since 1960.

True, many governments have tried hard to cut their outlays and their budget deficits of late. By and large, however, they have succeeded only in slowing, not reversing, the rate of growth of spending. Where budget deficits have been reduced, this has been done more by raising taxes than by curbing expenditure. On average, public spending in the advanced economies is bigger in relation to national income than it was in 1990. Even in the unusual case of Britain, after nearly 20 years of strenuous efforts to roll back the state, public spending accounts for about the same share of the national income as it did in 1980.

On the face of it, this is puzzling. Over the long term, a government’s ability to spend is limited by its ability to raise taxes. In the past 20 years, better international communications and freer movement of capital should have made it easier for taxpayers to avoid high-tax jurisdictions, putting downward pressure on public spending. Why does this appear not to have happened in a significant way?

The answer is partly that taxpayers remain less mobile than one might think. Financial capital, to be sure, now moves instantly from country to country. But once capital has been turned into physical assets such as buildings or equipment, moving it is costly. Governments may grant tax preferences to attract new capital to their countries, but they can continue to tax the profits from physical capital that is already in place.

Labour, in any case, remains far less mobile than capital -rooted by ties of family, culture and language. In recent years, therefore, many governments have reduced their rates of company taxation (as well as granting special concessions for new investment), and have shifted the burden on to people instead. Taxes on wages and salaries have risen. This has more than made up for the fall in revenues due to lower company taxes.

Extremely high rates of personal taxation in many countries, notably in Europe, confirm that people cannot readily escape the clutches of high-spending governments. It is true that competition among governments has changed the structure of personal taxes in many countries, as the extremely high rates paid by the highest-income taxpayers have been cut. So far, however, this has failed to reduce the overall tax burden. Only in the most extreme cases — such as Sweden, where public spending reached 71% of national income in 1993 — has emigration of high-income taxpayers forced a retrenchment (and even then only a comparatively modest one) on the government.

Free to borrow

So much for taxes and spending. What about public borrowing and monetary policy? It is often argued that today’s global market for capital applies a particularly severe discipline in these areas. Again, this is misleading. In the first instance, greater mobility of capital gives governments more freedom of manoeuvre in fiscal policy, not less. By borrowing from abroad, they are able to let their spending exceed their revenues by more and for longer than would be possible if their economies were closed to international finance.

Of course, if they abuse this freedom, capital markets will turn against them, and raise the offenders’ cost of borrowing. But this is only like saying that people who run up too big a bank overdraft will be offered poor terms for further loans. The fact remains that an overdraft facility increases financial freedom, it does not reduce it.

Admittedly, living with financial freedom can be more complicated than living without it. In particular, the extreme mobility of modern financial capital makes monetary policy more difficult to conduct For instance, it has become difficult for governments to peg their exchange rates indefinitely in the face of adverse circumstances. Numerous crises, from the collapse of Europe’s exchange-rate mechanism in 1992-93 to the trauma in East Asia, make this clear.

The risk of “contagion”, when a crisis in one country leads the market to change its view of prospects in others, is a further complication, as recent events in Asia have emphasised. Nonetheless it remains entirely possible for a government to use monetary policy to steer the domestic economy, provided that it is willing to let its currency float. Today’s global capital market only rules out sooner what has always been impossible in the longer term — namely, treating interest rates and the value of the currency as entirely separate instruments matters. Globalisation has not altered the basic limits: monetary policy can be used to regulate the domestic economy or to regulate the exchange rate, but it cannot successfully accomplish both goals at once.

Finally, what of the argument that the new global economy makes it impossible for governments to mandate social protection, such as minimum-wage laws, rules on working hours, health-and-safety standards in the workplace, and so forth. According to this popular view, if governments grant such protection, they will make their firms uncompetitive and put workers on the dole. Globalisation is thus blamed for a “race to the bottom” in economic regulation.

There is no reason why this should be true. Certainly, social protection does carry economic costs, reducing the amount of output that can be squeezed from any given amount of capital, labour and other resources. This is not to say that social protection is wrong. Citizens may well decide the cost is worth paying. But the cost must be borne. The only question is how.

In an economy closed to flows of trade and finance, the cost will take the form of lower incomes. In an open economy, the same must ultimately be true. This basic logic is the same whether the economy is closed, partially open or globalised. The only difference is that open economies with floating currencies may experience that fall in incomes through currency depreciation — and thus higher prices for consumer goods-while a closed economy will suffer a decline in wages as expressed in the local currency.

The important thing to remember about social-protection. Rules is simply that, in economics, you rarely get something for nothing. That is the bad news. The good news is that social-protection rules are as feasible, and in the end no more costly, in a globalised economy than they are in a closed economy.

Much the same goes for financial regulation, public spending and macroeconomic policy. Governments, always eager to deflect political pressure, may prefer to justify unpopular decisions by pretending that their hands are tied. In truth, despite all the changes in global markets, they have about as much, or as little, control of their economies as they ever had.

VOCABULARY

1. in the aggregate	в совокупности, в целом
2. income (s)	доходы (ы)
3. benefit (s)	выгоды, преимущества
4. public spending	государственные расходы
5. to cushion	зд.оказывать финансовую помощь; перераспреде-лять средства в пользу...;
6 .working practices	организация труда
7. collapsing currency	валюта, курс который неуклонно снижается
8. lighter regulation	смягчение регулирования (контроля)
9. health-care system	система здравоохранения
10. education reform	реформа в сфере образования
11. privatization of state-owned enterprises	приватизация государственных предприятий
12. «flexibility»	«гибкость»
13. foreign borrowing	займы (заимствование) за границей
14. deregulation	отмена государственного регулирования
15. banking industry	банковская система
16. abolition of exchange controls	отмена валютного контроля
17. non-bank lenders	небанковские кредиты
18. building societies	строительное кооперативное сообщество с функциями ипотечного банка
19. boom	«бум», бурный рост (экономики)
20. bust	резкий спад (экономики)
21. upward trend	повышенная тенденция; тенденция к повышению
22. share of national income	доля национального дохода
23. physical assets	материальные активы
24. to grant tax prefere-nces (concessions)	предоставить налоговые льготы
25. revenues	поступления, доход
26. personal tax	налог на личную собственность
27. public borrowing	государственное заимствование
28. monetary policy	денежно-кредитная политика
29. fiscal policy	фискальная политика; бюджетная политика; налогово-кредитная политика
30. a bank overdraft	банковский овердрафт (кредитование суммы превышающей остаток средств на счете)
31. to peg exchange rate	«привязать» курс национальной валюты к движению курса другой твердой валюты (например, доллара)

4. Переведите отрывок «Free to Borrow».

5. Напишите реферат и аннотацию данного текста.

Text B.

1. Переведите следующий текст:

ARE THE POOR DIFFERENT ?

Developing countries have their own branch of economics. It is far from obvious that they need it.

Michel Camdessus, the managing director of the IMF, calls it the “silent revolution”. Wall Street financiers talk of the “emerging market era”. Other commentators refer more sourly to the “triumph of free-market economics”. They are all describing the same phenomenon: the dramatic shift in economic policy that has swept the developing world in the past few years.

The individual prescriptions are, by now, familiar: dismantle trade barriers, tighten fiscal policy, privatise state-owned firms, attack inflation, and so forth. Underlying them all, however, is an implicit assumption that the basic premises of prudent economic management are the same whether you are in Brazil, Benin or Belgium.

But is this assumption right? Three decades ago most economists would have answered, No. Spawned by the end of the colonial era in the 1950s and 1960s, a whole branch of economic theory grew up around the question of how to promote economic development in poor countries. The proposition on which “development economics” was built was that poor countries were intrinsically different from rich ones, and so needed their own set of economic models.

Some development economists argued, for instance, that the self-interested, rational individual (the basic actor in most economists’ models since Adam Smith’s time), did not exist in “traditional” tribal societies. And they claimed that because many poor countries had large agricultural populations and were often dependent on a few commodity exports for foreign-exchange earnings, economic policies that suited rich nations would not be appropriate for them.

With hindsight, much of this was misguided, and policies based on it had disastrous effects. Development economists believed that the state had to play a big role in fostering modernisation. But this led to huge, corrupt and inefficient bureaucracies, massive budget deficits and, indirectly, to rampant inflation. Much of the “silent revolution” of the past decade has consisted of correcting these mistakes.

So what, if anything, is left of development economics? Pierre-Richard Agenor, an economist at the IMF, argues that while the basic microeconomic assumptions about how people behave are similar for all countries, developing economies still differ “structurally” from rich ones, and therefore demand different models.

To support their case, the author lists the traits that he reckons “typical” developing countries still share. They tend to be more open than richer ones (that is to say, trade contributes a bigger fraction of national income), and to depend more on foreign capital. They tend to have fixed exchange rates and, often, exchange controls. Their financial markets are rudimentary and often distorted by heavy government regulation. The public sector plays a bigger role than in rich countries, particularly in directing the pattern of investment.

One obvious difficulty with this approach is that there is, in fact, no such thing as a “typical” developing country. Remember that the official “developing world” includes the fast-growing Asian tigers, the volatile economies of Latin America and the poorest nations in Africa. While some countries may share a number of the traits that the authors outline, few share them all.

A second objection is that many of the “structural differences” are, in fact, the relics of old policies inspired bydevelopment economics. Exchange controls are an example. As countries begin their reform process, these have been quickly lifted. Ditto for some of the restrictions on local financial markets.

Moreover, other apparent differences such as the importance of trade and capital flows in emerging markets — are nothing of the sort. They apply equally to many industrialised countries. This does have an implication for macroeconomics, but for the field in general, not just for the poor world. For simplicity’s sake, most traditional mainstream macroeconomic models assumed that an economy was closed (ie, that it had no relations with the rest of the world). In an increasingly integrated global economy, this assumption makes little sense. Macroeconomics, in rich and poor countries alike, must take the rest of the world into account.

That said, certain specific policy issues do seem to matter more in developing countries than in rich ones. Few developed countries, for example, have to contend with inflation rates of 20-30% a year; none has to worry about taming hyperinflation. In poorer countries, this problem is still high on the economic-policy agenda. In less developed economies, policymakers have a smaller range of financial tools at their disposal. Conducting monetary policy in an African country where domestic bond markets barely exist is clearly different from influencing interest rates in, say, France.

Behind the times

In the early 1990’s stabilising high inflation and the aftermath of the 1980s debt crisis preoccupied many goverments.

Nowadays, the problems of coping with rapid swings in capital flows are more pressing — a fact that was highlighted by Mexico’s financial crisis, 1998. As poor countries continue to free their markets and to curb the role of the state, many of the remaining “structural differences” with rich ones will disappear. Sooner rather than later, there will only be two types of macroeconomic policy: good and bad.

VOCABULARY

1. emerging markets	развивающиеся рынки
2. emerging countries	страны с развивающимися рыночными отношениями (часто новые индустриальные страны)
3 .development economics	экономическая теория развития
4. a fraction of national income	доля (часть) национального дохода
5 .trait(s)	характерные черты
6 .macroeconomics	макроэкономическая теория
7. taming hyperinflation	обуздание гиперинфляции

2. Напишите аннотацию данного текста.

Text C.

THE JOYS OF LIVING IN SYNE.

For the first time since 1985, according to the OECD, all of its 29 member countries will enjoy growth. Better still, developing countries and the transition economies of Russia and Eastern Europe are also expected to join in the fun. If (a big if) such forecasts prove correct, the next few years could see the most broadly-based period of economic growth since much earlier this century.

Even the fiercest sceptics will be cheered by the news that the average world inflation rate is tipped to fall to its lowest level for almost 30 years. Even Brazil, which is as famous for its hyperinflation as its coffee and carnivals, had a single-digit annual inflation rate in December for the first time since the 1950s.

The good news is almost universal. Growth is becoming more evenly spread across the rich industrial nations, with continental Europe and Japan starting to perk up at last. The OECD expects Europe’s GDP to grow by around 2,5%. After a painfully long recession, Japan’s GDP’s is expected to increase by 2.8%. The American economy, which has led the pack over the past five years, is forecast to cruise along at around 2%. Many other economists reckon that America will grow a bit faster than this. All told, the rich industrial economies, which account for about half of the world’s total output, look set to grow around 2,5% this year.

But that performance will be overshadowed by that in the emerging economics, where economic reforms and sounder monetary and fiscal policies arc bearing fruit. Latin America, where output slumped sharply in the wake of the Mexican debacle, is enjoying a strong bounce back. Over the past 12 months, Mexico’s industrial production has jumped by 16%, Argentina’s by 13%. The IMF is forecasting average GDP growth of 4% for Latin America.

The IMF also brushes aside fears that the Asian economic miracle is starting to fade. Growth slowed sharply in some Asian economies as exports stumbled. But most economists reckon this mainly reflected a cyclical downturn. The cycle is turning back up, according to the IMF. Optimistically, it has pencilled in growth of 7,5% in Asian developing countries.

Most dramatic of all is the expected turnaround in Russia and Eastern Europe. The region could see its first proper growth for a dicade. After falling by more than 50% since the late 1980s, Russia’s output is tipped by both the OECD and the IMF to start expanding again contributing to a region-wide growth rate of 4%.

Totting it all up, world GDP could grow by more than 4%, its fastest rate for a decade. Peering deeper into its crystal ball, the IMF forecasts global growth for at 4,4% — well above the aveerage of 3,2% over the past 20 years.

David Hale, the chief economist at Zurich Kemper Investments, reckons that such a broad upturn is unprecedented in modern times. Not since before the first world war have virtually all rich and poor countries simultaneously enjoyed strong sustained growth. It all sounds like excellent news. Add in the fact that growth is almost certainly being understated by an increasing margin because a growing chunk of output in services is tricky to measure, and it is possible that the world could be on the brink of one of its strongest booms ever.

One might conclude from this cheery news that the exuberant financial markets are not quite so irrational after all. But the picture is not cloudless. The fact that the world’s big, rich econommies have been unusually out of kilter in recent years may go a long way to explain why inflation has stayed low. America’s strength has been offset by weaker demand elsewhere, which has held down the prices of raw materials, helping to tame inflation. When growth in different countries is synchronised, inflationary pressures build as strong demand in one country spills over into others. Policymakers then need to act more swiftly to raise interest rates.

The question now is thether more synchronised growth will make it harder to keep inflation under control. The popular thesis that “inflation is dead” — thanks to new technology and increased global competition — is about to face its first real test.

VOCABULARY

1. sync = syncronization	синхронизация, выравнивание (уровней развития)
2. OECD = Organization of Economic Cooperation Development	Организация экономического сотрудничества и развития
3. transition economies	страны с переходной экономикой
4 .single digit inflation rate	темпы инфляции ниже десяти процентов (выраженные однозначным числом)
5. … being understated by an increasing margin ...	занижаются со все большей степенью допустимой погрешности

2. Напишите аннотацию данного текста .

UNIT IV Europe: Economic And Monetary Union.

Text A.

THE «EURO».

1. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. What exactly is the EU for now ?

вопросы без предварительного 2. What are the benefits of the single

чтения текста : market and the single currency ?

3. Will full economic and monetary

union spell the end of a country’s

right to determine its own economic

policy ?

2. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. When will people actually have

вопросы после беглого просмотра Euro notes and coins in their

текста : pockets ?

2. What are the necessary economic

conditions for taking part in the

single currency ?

3. What are the advantages of a single

currency ?

3. Прочитайте следующий текст и найдите ключевые слова и предложения в каждом абзаце:

THE “EURO”

The EU means many things to many people. For some it has been at the core of efforts to help maintain peace over the past 50 years in a continent which in the past has been riven by rivalry and suspicion. Others, however, talk of its political impotency.

For many the EU is primarily about the single market and the opportunities and benefits this presents to busineses, students, pensioners and holidaymakers.

A number of people feel that it is becoming increasingly difficult to see the wood through the trees. They look back and ask whether the EU’s current responsibilities really are fulfilling the visions of its founders, or whether those visions have themselves become lost in the ambiguities of post cold-war Europe? A fair question would be: What exactly is the EU for now?

Likewise you may want to know how the EU benefits people directly, in practical terms.

Ultimately, the EU is more than just the sum of its parts. Its Member States created it to help solve problems that cannot now be effectively tackled by countries acting alone. The point is that the EU offers opportunities, not restrictions.

The decision to adopt the single currency forms an integral part of the Treaty on European Union signed by the Member States in Maastricht in February 1992. Protocols attached to the Treaty will allow two countries, the United Kindom and Denmark, to stay out of the single currency when the time comes, should they prefer.

At the European Council meeting in Madrid on the 15 and 16 December 1995 the Heads of State or Government of the Fifteen decided to call the single currency the “Euro” and adopted a definitive scenario for introducing it. The changeover to the Euro will therefore begin on 1 January 1999 for those countries which meet the necessary conditions laid down in the Maastricht Treaty.

If they are to join the Euro, the Member States must bring their economies closer together (this is known as achieving “convergence”). Four convergence criteria have been established for that purpose:

* Member States must avoid excessive government deficits. Their perfomance is measured against two reference ratios: 3% of GDP for the annual deficit and 60% of GDP for the stock of government debt;

* inflation should not exceed by more than 1,5 percentage points that of the three best performing member States in terms of price stability in the previus year;

* the country’s currency must have remained within the normal fluctuation margins of the European Monetary System (EMS) for at least two years;

* long-term interest rates should not exceed by more than 2 percentage points the average of the three Member States with the lowest rates in the Union.

Member States have made real progress towards economic convergence, but government deficits are still running to high. Deficit reduction is the only possible option if we are to lay the foundations for healthy economic growth, which is the necessary precondition for creating jobs and fighting uneployment in Europe.

Economists agree that, given the globalisation of the economy, allowing government deficits to grow is no longer a valid way of boosting economic activity.

Conversely, unemprloyment worsens when countries go more deeply into the red. The 15 Member States of the Union have clearly understood this lesson: the European employment strategy agreed at the Madrid European Council ranks the reduction of excessive deficits as a top priority.

The situation as regards the other convergence criteria has improved considerably in recent years, expecially for inflation, which has hit record lows and for long-term interest rates.

Will full economic and monetary union spell the end of a country’s right to determine its own economic policies? Yes and no. Yes, because in a very real sense national governments have seen fit to hand over some control of their own economies in order that other benefits may be accrued. This is the point. The benefits of full EMU to the consumer and to businesses are evident; the benefits to national governments and their central banks or current equivalents are equally wide-ranging.

A move to a common currency will allow Member States to have greater influence over each others’ economic policies, and therefore over each others’ interest rate changes. Smaller countries will have a far greater say over the economies of larger countries in this way, as each country will have a single vote on decisions on monetary policy taken by the European Central Bank.

A single currency will also be able to withstand, far more confidently the pressures brought to bear on separate national currencies by speculators. Sudden devaluations would become a thing of the past. This would also discourage uncertainty about interest rates. Furthermore, by resisting membership of the single currency, a national government would be effectively denying itself the right to have a say in how the European Central Bank is run, and thus, in some ways, in how the Community itself progresses.

The advantages of a single currency are numerous. For one, a single currency means that travellers across the Community no longer have to change money, while losing money on every transcation, as is currently the case. Exchange margins and commission fees paid to banks will simply disappear. Small businesses in particular will benefit as payments and tranfers between Member States end up being quicker and more reliable, as well as cheaper.

For business and consumers, a single currency will also take away the uncertainty about the price for which goods are sold. As has been seen sudden exchange rate movements can wipe out profit margins in a matter of hours.

Furthermore, if goods and services are priced in one and the same currency the competitive effect of the single market will be strentthened considerably, much to the Community’s benefit as a whole. In this way, the single currency will also help stimulate growth and employment.

A single currency will be able to withstand, far more confidently, the pressures which have been put very visibly on separate national currencies by speculators.This would also discourage uncertainty about interest rates.

The Madrid European Council called for an examination of the relationship between the Member States adopting the Euro from the outset (the ‘ins’) and those joining the Euro area at a later stage (the ‘pre-ins’). There was full consensus on the need for monetary stability in the interests of smooth functioning of the single market. Ministers also unanimously approved the Commission’s prooposals for strengthening multilateral surveillance.

However, a very large majority of Member States agreed that such strengthening was not sufficient in itself to ensure monetary stability, since the markets sometimes acted on factors other than the economic fundamentals. An exchange-rate mechanism was therefore necessary; no Member States opposed the creation of such a mechanism.

VOCABULARY

1 . single market	единый рынок
2. single currency	единая валюта
3. changeover to the «Euro»	переход к «Евро»
4. to meet the necessary conditions	отвечать соответствующим требованиям
5. convergence	конвергенция, сближение (уровней экономи-ческого развития)
6. criteria (pl)	критерии
7. reference ratio	эталонное соотношение (показатель, норма и т.д.)
8. best performing Member States	Страны-члены с наилучшими показателями
9. in terms of price stability	с точки зрения стабильности цен (в отношении ...)
10. flactuation margins	пределы колебаний
11. the European Monetary System (EMS)	Европейская валютная система
12. to go into (to be in) the red	иметь дефицит, быть должником
13. current equivalents	зд. аналогичные учреждения
14. exchange margins	зд. различия в уровнях обменных курсов
15. commission fee(s)	комиссионный сбор (ы)
16. transfer	денежный перевод
17. multilateral surveillance	инспекция (наблюдение) на многосторонней основе
18. economic fundamentals	основные экономические показатели

4. Переведите отрывок :

«Will full economic and monetary union spell the end of a counter’s right to determine its own economic policies ?»

5. Напишите реферат и аннотацию данного текста.

Text B.

1. Переведите следующий текст:

ASKING FOR TROUBLE.

The single currency will lead to regional conflict, not economic efficiency.

The European nations hurtling toward Economic and Monetary Union are heading for trouble. emu is likely to bring higher unemployment and higher inflation. Pursuit of a common policy will cause conflicts among participating governments that will intensits as the monetary union evolves into a more wide-ranging political union responsible for foreign, military and domestic policies.

Joblessness will rise because interest and exchange rates will no longer automatically counter cyclical unemployment. Today, for example, if a recession in Latin America causes Spanish exports to decline, the peseta weakens and Spanish interest rates fall. That causes Spain’s other exports to rise and domestic interest-sensitive spending to increase. The net effect is a smaller rise in unemployment. But once the peseta is replaced by the euro, Spain cannot be helped by a currency adjustment or by a fall in interest rates (since these must be uniform throughout the monetary Union). EMU membership would also deny Spain the option of easing monetary policy to stimulate growth and employment. And, because of the misnamed stability pact, the Spanish government will not be able to cut taxes or raise spending to offset a fall in demand.

Some Europeans reject such pessimism, citing the example of the U.S., which avoids persistent high regional unemployment despite its single currency and single central bank. Unfortunately, three basic differences between the U.S. and Europe mean that America’s success with a single currency is not relevant to Europe.

First, Americans are very mobile — moving from high unemployment regions to places where there are jobs. In Europe, linguistic barriers prevent similar mobility. Second, U.S. wages are much more flexible. Wages fall in regions where demand declines, offsetting increases in production employment. And, finally, when income declines, individual and business taxes paid to the federal government decline sharply, implying a strong net transfer to that region. For these reasons, unemployment rates are far less sensitive to U.S. regional demand fluctuations than they would be in a single-currency Europe.

Europe’s current double-digit unemployment rates are not cyclical but are caused by bad structural policies — misguided regulations, high minimum wages, and generous unemployment benefits. A few countries have made progress by changing these counterproductive rules. Their experience shows what can be done and provides competitive pressures to force reform elsewhere. But the increased centralization of policy that accompanies EMU will make it harder for individual countries to experiment with reforms. The European Commission’s recent pronouncement that it will force countries to respect maximum working hours is an indication of things to come.

Inflation in Europe has fallen sharply during the past decade as individual central banks emulated Germany’s fiercely anti-inflationary Bundesbank. Although other countries do not share the Germans’ fervid opposition to inflation, they have been forced to follow Germany’s lead to avoid devaluing their currencies. This monetary discipline will end when EMU gives every country an equal vote at the European Central Bank. Without Germany’s leadership, European inflation will be higher in the next decades than it has been in recent years.

These adverse effects on unemployment and inflation far outweigh the commercial benefits that will flow from EMU. the elimination of tariffs and other barriers by the 1992 Single Market agreement was far more important for stimulating trade and investment.

Despite these shortcomings, EMU looks likely to begin on schedule because economic issues are secondary to political aspirations. For Germany and France EMU offers the possibility of dominating European policy-making. Countries like Italy and Spain will join to show that they are economically and politically worthy of membership. And the smaller countries are joining to have a seat at the table where European policies are determined. The Maastricht Treaty that created the EMU calls for a European political union with broad domestic and international responsibilities. Moreover, since no significant country exists — or has ever existed — without its own currency, the shift to a single currency for the EMU members is a giant step toward such a European state.

Ever since the end of World War II a single European government has been advocated as a way of keeping the peace. But a European political union is more likely to be a source of conflict than a foundation for European harmony. There will be quarrels over monetary policy, over taxation, and over the shaping of common foreign policies. There will be disputes between Germany and France about their relative power and influence. There will be conflicts that flow from the frustrations of other E.U. countries — including Britain if it decides to enter — when they find that they are marginalized in the decision process. A European political union with 300 million people and the ability to project military force around the world could be the source of broader international instability in the decades ahead.

VOCABULARY

1. joblessness	безработица
2. cyclical unemployment	циклическая безработица
3. interest-sensitive	зависящий от (подверженный воздействию изменений) уровня ссудного процента
4. currency adjustment	корректировка валютного курса
5. an equal vote	равное число голосов
6. the European Central Bank	Европейский центральный банк
7. to be marginalized	зд. остаться в стороне от
8. EMU	Economic and monetary Fund

2. Напишите аннотацию данного текста.

Text C.

1. Прочитайте и переведите следующий текст.

WHY NON-EUROPEANS SHOULD CARE ABOUT EMU.

If you live in Europe, economic and monetary union is an impossible subject to avoid. Debates about its timing, membership and prospects make headlines almost daily. Yet outside Europe EMU is scarcely mentioned. That is a pity. For EMU, if and when it goes ahead, will have global economic implications.

The creation of the euro will be the biggest change in the world’s monetary arrangements since the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates broke down in the early 1970s. How EMU will affect the rest of the world depends largely on two related questions. First, will the euro challenge the American dollar as the world’s main reserve currency? And second, is EMU likely to make the global monetary system more or less stable?

Most economists and policymakers agree that the euro, if backed by a credible monetary policy, will eventually play a more important global role than its constituent European currencies do today. Central banks will want to hold some of their reserves in euros, and financial markets will conduct more transactions in the new currency. Both changes will occur mainly at the expense of the dollar. But pundits disagree about how fast they will happen, and whether the euro will ever topple the dollar.

Fred Bergsten, director of the Institute for International Economics, a Washington think-tank, says that at a minimum the euro will quickly become the world’s second key currency. The reason, he says, is that the principal influences on a currency’s potential as an international currency are the relative size of the underlying economy and that economy’s share of global trade. On both counts, EMU’s likely members score well.

The European Union accounts for just over 30% of world output, slightly more than America’s 27%. Even when intra-European trade flows are excluded, the EU exports more than the United States. The “core” European countries that are most likely to join EMU at the outset account for a slightly bigger share of global trade than America. All this suggests that the euro should become an important international currency.

However, other arguments point strongly in the dollar’s favour. Part of the dollar’s international attraction is the size, depth and liquidity of America’s capital markets. America’s market for domestic securities, for instance, is twice as large as the combined markets of EU countries. Even with rapidly increasing European financial integration, America’s supremacy in capital markets is unlikely to be challenged. The dollar is also the incumbent: investors’ inertia may slow change.

Even so, economists expect that between зо% and 40% of global financial assets will end up denominated in euros (with between 40% and 50% in dollars, and the rest in yen and a few other currencies). This would imply a shift of between $500 billion and $1 trillion into euros, primarily out of dollars, as investors and central banks reshuffled their portfolios.

How much currency instability such a portfolio shift may cause depends on how quickly it takes place.A sudden surge in demand for the euro would cause it to appreciate rapidly. George Alogoskoufis, an economist at the Athens School of Economics, and Richard Portes, of the London Business School, argue that shifts in portfolios could push the euro temporarily above its long-run equilibrium level. Eventually this “overshooting” would be corrected as the EU’s current-account deficit widened, real interest rates fell and the euro depreciated.

Policy decisions within Europe could make the euro more volatile still. Mr Bergsten believes that EMU governments, having given up monetary policy, might pursue an expansionary fiscal policy — in spite of their “stability pact”, which is intended to prevent such laxity. Meanwhile the European Central Bank will be determined to establish its credibility with a tight monetary policy. The combination of the two, he argues, could mirror the impact of Reaganomics on the dollar in the early 1980s. The euro would soar. Its global role would increase as assets were shifted into euros, but global exchange-rate volatility would rise.

It is true that other factors may dampen the effect of the shift into euros. For instance, much of the demand for euros would come from central banks adjusting their reserves. To avoid exchange-rate instability, central bankers might do this gradually. Nonetheless, some temporary rise in volatility is probable.

Monetary union might even make currencies more volatile permanently. Because trade among EMU members will be transacted in a common currency, and “international” trade will be smaller, European policymakers might pay less attention to exchange rates than they now do. More instability might result.

One popular idea for minimising such instability is a more formal system of currency co-operation between the world’s major economies. The problem, however, is that policymakers may not want to make their domestic monetary policies subject to formal exchange-rate targets for the sake of global currency-market stability. For instance, having tied their national currencies together for all time, Europeans may not want to fix the euro against the dollar and the yen.

An additional concern within Europe will be the uncertainty of who should cooperate. At its start, EMU will not include all EU members. The relationship between the “ins” and “outs” will affect the potential for broader co-ordination, as well as currency stability within Europe.

Moreover, the technicalities of policy co-operation will not be simple. The European Central Bank will control monetary policy; EMU’s finance ministers will have a say on exchange-rate policy; and fiscal policy will (within limits) stay in the hands of individual European governments. Policy coordination, at least initially, will be far from straightforward. That alone may make the international monetary system less stable.

VOCABULARY

1. reserve currency	резервная валюта
2. think-tank	«мозговой трест» (группа экспертов, приглашенная для решения определенных задач)
3. domestic securities	национальные ценные бумаги
4. portfolio	портфель инвестиций
5. equilibrium level	уровень равновесия
6. «overshooting»	зд. нарушение равновесия; расхождение с уровнем равновесия
7. current-account deficit	дефицит платежного баланса по текущим операциям
8. volatile	неустойчивый
9. Reaganomics	«Рейгономика» — экономическая политика во времена президента Рейгана «экономика предложения»
10. monetary policy	денежно-кредитная политика

2. Напишите реферат и аннотацию данного текста.

«Europe. Economic and Monetary Union».

Topics for discussion

1. The EU: benefits of the single market and the single currency.

2. Four convergence criteria as means of bringing the European economies closer together.

3. Full economic and monetary union spells the end of a country’s right to determine its own economic policy.

4. The single currency may lead to regional conflict, not economic efficiency.

5. The creation of the euro will be the biggest change, in the world’s monetary arrangements.

UNIT V. Inflation.

Text A.

MURDER, THEY WROTE.

1. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. What is the effect of inflation

вопросы без предварительного on economic growth ?

чтения текста : 2. Do to-day’s low rates of inflation

in major economies defy pessimistic

forecasts of the recent years ?

2. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. What is the harmful cost of

вопросы после беглого просмотра inflation ?

текста : 2. Why has inflation proved so

benign in many countries ?

3. Is inflation burying premature ?

3. Прочитайте следующий текст и найдите ключевые слова и предложения:

MURDER, THEY WROTE.

Economists have spent a lot of effort trying to measure the effect of inflation on economic growth. Many governments would be grateful for clear evidence that it slows growth a lot: this would make it easier for them to justify the usually painful policies that are needed to bring inflation down. But the evidence, such as it is, is none too clear.

Theory points confidently to the view that inflation (especially the unanticipated kind)hampers growth. It inevitably causes uncertainty about future prices; this in turn will affect decisions about spending, saving and investment, causing resources to be misallocated. Inflation has other costs too. It may cause substantial redistributions of income and wealth — notably from savers to borrowers. And if it discourages saving in this way too, then investment and growth are likely to suffer all the more.

However over the past few years inflation has turned out lower than most observers expected. The average inflation rate, of 2.2%, in the seven biggest industrial economies is at its lowest level for 30 years. Most people alive today have been brought up to believe that it is normal for prices to rise every year. Yet countries have experienced continuous inflation only since the end of the second world war; before then, prices rose in some years, but fell in others, leaving the average price level unchanged over long periods. Economists reckon that we are about to return to such a world.

The prediction is based on powerful structural changes in the world economy. Labour-saving technology, weaker trade unions, and stronger competition at home (thanks to privatisation and deregulation) and abroad (imports from low-wage economies) have made it harder for workers to push up wages and for firms to raise prices.

Most economists would agree that technology and globalisation may well allow economies to grow faster than in the past before inflation takes off. But there are claims which are much more controversial than that. The argument is that these structural changes will make a resurrection of inflation almost impossible for the foreseeable future.

Some economists reject the orthodox economic view that inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon — ie,the result of too much money chasing too few goods. Crude monetarism — the notion that a rise in the money supply is automatically followed by a rise in prices — has long been discredited, in part because different measures of “money” behave differently. But,even if it is not the

sole yardstick, monetary growth still matters. If lax monetary policies allow economies to grow too rapidly, inflation will eventually start to rise.

Indeed, it must be accepted that even in the new world of price stability, governments will still need some form of nominal anchor — a target for, say, inflation or the exchange rate — to keep inflationary pressures in check.

The death-of-inflation thesis is flawed in several other ways. For a start, rich countries’ imports from emerging economies are supposed to constrain price rises. But these imports today are not much bigger as a share of rich nations’ gdp than they were in the late 1980s, when inflation last took off.

Another objection to the thesis is that competition from emerging economies should affect only relative prices, not overall inflation. It will hold down the prices of basic manufactured goods in rich countries. But with a given stock of money, these lower prices will increase the real money supply. This, in turn, will boost spending on other goods and services, raising their prices. Moreover, emerging economies will spend their export earnings on imports from rich countries, again pushing prices up. Likewise, foreign competition should swell.

Finally, there are two big differences between past eras of price stability and today. The gold standard, which was abandoned in the 1930s, played a crucial role in keeping the value of money stable, by tying currencies to gold. Another big difference with the past is that governments now provide extensive social safety nets, which put a floor under wages. This makes it hard to see how wages (and hence prices) will fall in recessions, as some predict.

Not quite a zero era

The least controversial, and most useful is the analysis of how firms, workers, investors, pensioners and governments need to adapt their behaviour to zero inflation. Much of this is still valid even if inflation persists, albeit at lower levels than in the recent past.

For instance, in a period of low inflation, a home becomes simply a place to live, rather than a speculative investment. Workers can no longer expect annual pay rises. Companies and savers must also get used to lower nominal annual returns on their investments. The snag is that people suffer from what economists call “money illusion”: price stability makes them feel worse off. Indeed, their very fondness for inflation will make it harder to kill off.

Financial markets, by contrast, hate inflation. And their behaviour does support the thesis: investors now swiftly penalise inflationary policies by charging governments higher interest rates on their debt. This should help keep policy-makers on their toes. They need to be alert. A big reason why inflation has remained subdued in most countries is that there is still considerable spare industrial capacity. The real test will come as economic recovery builds up steam.

Perhaps it would have been better if, instead of (prematurely) burying inflation, the economists had focused more on what governments can do to ensure that it remains low. One way of doing so would be to entrench price stability as the principal formal goal of monetary policy. That could prove to be a particularly effective murder weapon.

VOCABULARY

1. to hamper (growth)	мешать, препятствовать росту
2. redistribution (s)	перераспределение
3. saver(s)	банковские вкладчики
4. borrower(s)	заёмщики
5. average inflation rate	средний уровень (темп) инфляции
6. labour-saving technology	трудосберегающая технология
7. low-wage economies	страны с дешевой рабочей силой (низким уровнем зарплаты)
8. measure (s) of «money»	зд. показатель (и) денежной массы в обращении; денежный (е) агрегат (ы)
9. speculative investment	зд. инвестиции с целью получения прибыли; выгодное капиталовложение
10. spare industrial capacity	свободные (незагруженные) производственные мощности

4. Переведите отрывок: «Not quite a zero era».

5. Напишите реферат и аннотацию данного текста.

Text B.

1. Переведите следующий текст:

INFLATION IS DEAD

In 1968 (a few years, as chance would have it, before a big leap in inflation), Germany’s economics minister, Karl Schiller, announced that “inflation is dead, as dead as a rusty nail”. More than a quarter of a century later, the “inflation is dead” school is making another bid for posterity. Some economists even declared that inflation is “an extinct volcano”, dangerous only because some foolish central bankers refuse to see that it has vanished.

What to make of claims of these sort? It is, for a start, worth noting that even if inflation is indeed dead, nobody has managed to persuade financial markets of the fact. This week, in the wake of news that the United States had created more jobs than expected in March, bond prices plunged on fears that a stronger economy might reignite inflation. Conventional wisdom is often wrong. But in the case of inflation there is a better answer than the gamblers’ one: it is to wait and see.

Another point to note about these claims is that they form part of a trend among some economists to rewrite some of the core assumptions of their own discipline. They are doing so, they say, in order to accommodate the big changes that are sweeping the world economy, and in particular its growing integration. In the face of “globalisation”, these economists have begun to challenge not just the persistence of inflation but also the theory of comparative advantage and the proposition that new technology creates more jobs than it destroys.

As Keynes said, a discipline that changes its mind as the facts change is more admirable than one that clings to obsolete dogma. The trouble with letting the paradigm-busters have their fun is that each of their new “insights” implies a policy reversal that politicians will favour even if they do not. Inflation is dead? Then relax monetary discipline. No such thing as comparative advantage? Time for protectionism. Technology destroys jobs? Make it harder for firms to hire and fire. By their zeal to proclaim a new era, these economists are in danger of lending respectability to dreadful policies.

And on thin grounds. Consider the alleged death of inflation. It may well be true, that sharper competition at home and abroad, new technology and weaker trade unions have made it harder for firms and workers to raise prices and wages. But even if structural changes of this sort increase the rate at which economies grow before inflation takes off, monetary discipline remains crucial. Does anyone seriously believe that Germany’s inflation rate is lower than Italy’s because its economy is more open, not because it has followed stricter monetary policies?

The claim that globalisation has wiped out comparative advantage is just as extravagant, and based on equally thin reasoning. It is true that free trade and new technology make it easier for the rich world’s firms to shift production to where labour is cheapest. And it is true that some low-skilled jobs in the rich world will be lost. But the fear that China, say, will be able to make everything more cheaply than America, stems from an old economic fallacy: confusing comparative with absolute advantage. The basic principle that all countries are better off if they specialise in industries and services in which they have a comparative advantage still holds; and it is free trade that enables them to specialise.

Pollyanna, and the absence of a free lunch

Some of those who argue that globalisation has changed some of the core assumptions of economics accuse those who disagree with them of complacency. On the one hand, they imply, stands the vanguard of a new economic paradigm, ready courageously to acknowledge and adapt to big historical changes; on the other are the Pollyannaish defenders of the status quo. Nothing could be further from the truth.

To believe in the threat of inflation and in the continuing benefits of free trade is not to argue smugly for inaction. It is to stress the need for some familiar but painful choices. It means tempering growth with monetary discipline, and finding ways to help those workers who will indeed suffer from foreign competition without panicking into the wealth-destroying option of protectionism. The striking point about globalisation is not how economics has changed, but how durable, and demanding, the discipline’s main ideas remain.

VOCABULARY

1. economic fallacy	ошибочная экономическая посылка
2. absolute advantage	абсолютное преимущество
3. economic paradigm	экономическая система понятия (парадигма)
4. Pollyanna	неисправимый оптимист
5 .tempering growth	зд. регулировать темпы роста

2. Напишите аннотацию данного текста.

«Inflation»

Topics for discussion

1. The effect of inflation on economic growth.

2. The popular thesis that «inflation is dead» — thanks to new technology and increased global competition — is about to face its first real test.

3. When growth in different countries is synchronised, inflationary pressures build as strong demand in one country spills over into others.

4. Financial markets hate inflation.

5. Price stability as the principal formal goal of monetary policy could he an effective weapon to kill inflation.

UNIT VI. BUSINESS AND BUSINESSES.

Text A.

WORLDBEATER, INC.

1. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. What rove do multinational

вопросы без предварительного corporations play in integrating the

чтения текста : world’s economies ?

2. Where does the economic logic of

multinationals lie ?

2. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. What are ways and reasons for

вопросы после беглого просмотра companies to become multinational ?

текста : 2. Could globalisation make multinational

companies less necessary ?

3. What is common criticism of

multinational companies ?

4. Why are multinationals more prominent

in developing economies than in richer

ones ?

3. Прочитайте следующий текст и найдите ключевые слова и предложения:

WORLDBEATER, INC.

Multinational corporations stand at the heart of the debate over the merits of global economic integration. Their critics portray them as bullies, using their heft to exploit workers and natural resources with no regard for the economic well-being of any country or community. Their advocates see multinationals as a triumph for global capitalism, bringing advanced technology to poorer countries and low-cost products to the wealthier ones.

Both of these stereotypes have some truth to them. But it would be wrong to portray the multinational corporation as either good or evil. Companies become multinational in many different ways and for many different reasons. Their impact on the global economy is far from simple to determine.

There is no doubting that multinationals matter. They are one of the main conduits through which globalisation takes place.Multinational firms’ sales outside their home countries are growing 20-30% faster than exports.

Multinationals also play an important role in global investment. The total stock of foreign direct investment — plants, equipment and property owned by businesses outside their home countries — stands at trillions. World-wide, foreign direct investment has been growing three times as fast as total investment, although it still accounts for only 6% of the annual investment of rich industrial economies. In addition, the UN’s World Investment Report estimates that 70% of all international royalties on technology involve payments between parent firms and their foreign affiliates, showing that multinationals play a key role in disseminating technology around the globe.

Few companies, even the most familiar household names, are truly global. The average multinational produces more than two-thirds of its output and locates two-thirds of its employees in its home country. Although both operate worldwide, the culture of General Motors is distinctively American, that of Volkswagen identifiably German. Yet there is no denying that multinationals are the main force behind worldwide flows of capital, goods and services.

Scale and scope

In the public mind, globalisation and multinational corporations are closely related. The stereotype has giant companies shifting production from one country to another in search of the cheapest sources of labour, without regard for the well-being of either the high-wage workers who stand to lose their jobs or I the low-paid ones who will be hired. Yet globalisation could just as easily make multinational companies less necessary.

Why? As transport costs and trade barriers fall, it becomes easier to serve foreign markets by exporting, rather than establishing factories and research centres around the world. And as capital markets become more integrated and liquid, it is easier for single-country firms to raise money by selling bonds or shares. Big American, Japanese or European firms, which have benefited from their ready access to capital, should therefore be losing one of their main advantages.

This suggests that the economic logic of the multinational company lies elsewhere. Some explanations appear more valid than others, but none fully clarifies why multinationals have become so prominent at the end of the 20th century.

The most common explanation for multinationals’ growth is economies of scale. In certain industries, the argument goes, firms can become more efficient by becoming bigger and producing more. What better way to accomplish this than by serving a global market?

Upon further inspection, however, the notion that economies of scale force companies to become multinationals does not holdup. Consider aircraft manufacturing, an industry in which a big producer has enormous cost advantages over a small one. This industry is dominated by two firms, Boeing and Airbus Industrie. Boeing assembles almost all of its aircraft in the United States, although it buys components from subcontractors around the world. Airbus, which is made up of four separate firms in four different European countries, manufactures only in those countries and relies on exports to sell its aircraft elsewhere. The mere existence of significant scale economies has not forced either to become a true multinational.

Firms may, however, find economies of scale at a level other than that of the factory floor. Coca-Cola is a case in point. Scale is not a huge advantage on the manufacturing side of its business, which involves blending water, gas and a special syrup. Scale economies come into play in other areas, such as reinforcing its brand by making a global marketing effort and helping its bottlers, most of whom are independent, learn from the experiences of their counterparts in other countries. These scale effects have driven Coca-Cola to become a highly multinational company.

Another explanation for the growth in multinationalism is vertical integration. In some industries, the interdependence of suppliers and users of a particular resource makes it difficult for such firms to cooperate at arm’s length, since there is always the risk that one will try to undermine the other. This is the reason many firms integrate vertically, buying up their suppliers or their customers. Sometimes, those suppliers or customers will be abroad, turning the acquiring firms into a multinational.

A third reason for the spread of multinationals is that they tend to be successful. In any business, inefficient firms will eventually fold, giving way to those that can earn higher profits. As the world economy becomes more integrated, it is to be expected that the companies most adept at crossing borders are those that prosper. It should come as no surprise that firms from richer countries do this best. As a rule, they have been exposed to more competition in their home markets and are therefore well equipped for international competitive battles.

There is yet one other reason for firms to operate as multinationals: because everyone else is doing it. Many companies exist to serve other companies, rather than household consumers. If multinational car manufacturers want to use the same headlights in cars assembled in different countries, then headlight manufacturers must become multinational, too. This is why consulting firms and accountancies have been falling over one another to build seamless global networks. Although deregulation and privatisation have had a big effect on the telecoms industry, the demands of corporate customers are helping propel the globalisation of that industry.

Credit the critics

The reasoning above suggests that the growth of multinational companies is

fairly benign. But that is not always the case.

For one thing, multinationals’ size and scale can make it possible for them to exert power in an exploitative way. A company whose facilities are located in a single country has no alternative but to comply with that country’s laws and social norms, unless it wishes to import products made by others rather than making them itself. A multinational, however, can move production: if America’s worker-safety law is too restrictive, the company can move its factory to Mexico. It can also lower its tax bill by using internal pricing to shift profits from high-tax countries to low-tax ones.

This flexibility may make it harder for governments to raise revenue, protect the environment and promote worker safety. Critics fear an undesirable “race to the bottom”, with governments reducing desirable social protections to attract investment by multinationals.

Others point out that the race can be healthy insofar as it forces governments to be careful before imposing costly regulations and taxes. Certainly, many developing countries are eager to be “exploited” by as many multinationals as possible.

Another common criticism is that multinationals are exporting jobs to low-wage countries. This may be true in some industries, such as textiles and electronics. But in most cases it is exaggerated. Labour costs now make up only 5-10% of production costs in OECD countries, down from 25% in the 1970s. Multinationals tend to be motivated more by the other considerations that have been mentioned, rather than simple wage-cutting exercises.

Although the social impacts are often misstated, some multinational expansions are indeed unequivocally bad, with no offsetting benefits. Since most company bosses gain esteem (and, studies show, more pay) from operating a bigger outfit, it is no surprise that they expand at every opportunity, whether it is through a merger or a direct foray into a new market. As globalisation takes hold, these adventures are increasingly of a multinational nature. In some cases they represent a wasteful use of shareholders’ capital.

Today, as for many years, roughly three-fifths of all foreign direct investment goes into wealthy countries and two-fifths into «developing» countries.

In those days, a large share of direct investment in developing countries went into the extraction of natural resources, especially oil, for shipment abroad. Now, however, a much bigger share of it aims to tap local markets. As they become wealthier, people are able to buy more cars, computers and other consumer products. This is why car makers are racing to build plants in countries such as Thailand and Brazil: not to export to Japan and America, but to meet rising demand within South-East Asia and South America. Multinationals are more prominent in these developing economies than in richer ones .

Size isn’t eveeything

Around half of all foreign direct investment involves mergers and acquisitions. These deals help companies to achieve economies of scale in marketing and distribution, for example, and they allow well-managed firms to take over poorly managed ones. Many of those mergers have also been between firms which supply other multinationals with professional services, telecommunications and air travel, in an effort to develop global networks. For all of these reasons, such cross-border m&a activity occurs disproportionately among firms based in rich countries. This is why, for all the interest in developing countries, the United States was the world’s biggest recipient of foreign direct investment.

In certain industries and for certain products, the importance of multinational companies is increasing quickly. But the trend is easy to overstate. Most economic activity — cutting hair, driving taxi cabs, renovating houses — is still performed on a small scale. Most industries operate, if not at the level of the town or neighbourhood, then on a national basis. Even in manufacturing, speed, innovation and proximity to customers can matter more than sheer size. Being multinational is no guarantee of success.

VOCABULARY

1. multinational corporations (multinationals)	транснациональные компании
2 .direct investment	прямые инвестиции
3. royalties on technology	платежи (роялти) за использование технологий
4. parent firm	материнская компания
5 .affiliate	дочерняя компания
6. liquid	ликвидный
7. to raise money	мобилизовать, привлечь капитал (деньги)
8. components	комплектующие части, детали
9. subcontractors	субподрядчики
10. brand	фирменный знак, торговая марка
11. vertical integration	вертикальная интеграция
12. acquiring company	приобретающая, поглощающая компания (при слиянии)
13. consulting firms	консалтинговые фирмы
14. accountancies	зд. бухгалтерские (аудиторские) фирмы
15. facilities	зд. Мощности
16. worker-safety law	закон (нормы) по технике безопасности
17. merger	слияние (компаний)
18. shareholder’s capital	акционерный капитал
19. to take over	поглотить (компанию)
20. M&A (mergers and acquisitions	слияние и поглощение компаний

4. Переведите отрывок «Credit the Critics».

5. Напишите реферат и аннотацию данного текста.

Text B.

1. Переведите следующий текст:

BEHIND AMERICA’S SMALL BUSINESS SUCCESS STORY.

The OECD became latest organisation to hail America as the rich world’s most entrepreneurial economy. Businesses with fewer than 100 people are credited with creating two out of every three of America’s net new jobs. Last year 37% of its venture-capital investments went to start-ups, compared with l2%in Europe. The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) boasts that America’s small businesses count as the world’s third-biggest economy in their own right.

But is America winning these plaudits by default? To be deemed a better breeding ground for small businesses than, say, Germany (which does not even have a precise word for venture capital) is hardly difficult. It says nothing about how much better America could be; nor about the growing suspicion that American entrepreneurs face an increasingly inhospitable legal and regulatory structure.

Most people’s idea of a successful small American business is a fast-growing Internet company, backed by venture capital. Kent Bowen of the Harvard Business School argues that reality is more mundane: a small family firm in an established industry, growing at around 15% a year, with that growth financed internally. Many of its bugbears, such as big companies that settle their bills late, are familiar to its peers in Kyoto or Cannes. But not all of them. Small American companies have to deal with litigiousness on a scale that their European and Japanese peers can only laugh about.

Most people assume that big firms an more vulnerable to the excesses of America’s tort system because they are fatter targets for lawyers. But big firms also have the money — and the time — to fight back. Small firms have no such resources. Over half the own ers of small businesses take home less than $50,000 a year in pay: the average court case costs more than $l00.000. No wonder, the boss usually tries to deal with the complaint himself, and will often settle quickly.

Employment-practices liability insurance is already a $l00m-a-year business — even though insurers often cover only legal costs and the rates are extortionate. Law suits are also restricting the freedom of small American firms to hire and fire employees, long one of their chief advantages. Many small firms no longer give references for fear of subsequent lawsuits; many more do not fire anyone without consulting their lawyer first. Hopes for reform look slim. In any case, according to one British-born businessman in New York, most Americans “have no idea that this sort of hassle does not happen anywhere else”.

Small businesses the world over complain about bureaucracy, but the red tape spinning out of Washington is copious and the country’s small businesses, handicapped by a lack of resources, find it disproportionately restrictive.

One particular irritation for small businesses is the tax code, which is riddled with loopholes and exemptions, many of them created by large businesses. In a recent series of Senate hearings, various Internal Revenue Service officials admitted that small businesses such as mom-and-pop shops were easy “audit hits”, because they lack the resources to defend themselves.

Given all this, why are American small businesses optimistic about their future? Why are new firms still sprouting across the country? And why is it virtu ally impossible to find an entrepreneur anywhere in America who would rather set up shop anywhere else?

Some of this is due to the country’s booming economy, but there are two other reasons as well. The first is structural. Despite all the lawyers, the HMOs, the increased regulation and so on, America still provides more of the things entrepreneurs want than anywhere else: access to capital to start businesses (California and Massachusetts alone have bigger venture-capital industries than the whole of Europe); a relatively flexible labour market that allows, you to hire and fire workers more easily than elsewhere; a legal system that does not stigmatise you if you fail; and a tax system that allows you to keep most of the spoils if the business succeeds.

The second reason is that American entrepreneurialism seems more rooted in culture than structures. As Paul Morin of the Wharton School of Business points out there is no obvious shortage of capital in Europe or Japan: it just does not go into the same sort of risky endeavours.

VOCABULARY

1. entrepreneurial	предпринимательский
2. venture-capital investment	«рискованные» («венчурные») инвестиции, т.е. инвестиции с высокой степенью риска в основном в новые компании или наукоемкие отрасли
3. start-up (s)	новая (ые) компания (ии)
4. bugbears (s)	те, кто представляют собой угрозу; являются причиной опасений и трудностей
5. to settle bills	оплатить по счетам
6. litigiousness	споры или дела, подлежащие судебному разбирательству
7. tort	гражданское правонарушение, деликт
8. employment-practices liability insurance	страхование обязательств по трудовым отношениям (контрактами)
9. insurer	страховщик
10. extortionate	зд. Очень высокие «грабительские»
11. law suit (s)	судебный процесс (разбирательство)
12. reference (s)	рекомендательное письмо, характеристика
13. hassle	зд. Трудность, препятствие
14. red tape	бюрократический механизм
15 .tax code	налоговый кодекс
16. loophole (s)	«лазейки» (доход от уплаты налогов)
17. exemption (s)	налоговые льготы
18. mom-and-pop shop (s)	зд. Семейный бизнес (магазин)
19. HMO	Health Maintenance Organisation (амер.) Организация Медицинского Обеспечения

2. Напишите аннотацию данного текста .

Text C.

1. Переведите следующий текст :

THOROUGHLY MODERN MONOPOLY

Are the barons of high-technology industries a threat to free markets? Some of the world’s antitrust authorities fear that they are. In both America and Europe they look warily at new ventures by giant telecoms firms. In Europe, there are worries that a handful of companies could eventually dominate digital television, once it starts to develop. And America’s Department of Justice frets most about the best-known computer baron of them all: Bill Gates.

Simple statistics can make the case against Microsoft, the computer-software firm of which Mr Gates is the chairman. Over 80% of the world’s personal computers contain Microsoft’s MS-DOS or Windows operating systems; and Microsoft is by far the biggest supplier of desktop software applications.

But these facts mean little. Trustbusters’ fears should be based not merely on the idea that Big is Bad, but on the economics of the industry in question. Moreover, as in any other business where they are worried that consumers might be fleeced, regulators should step in only if they can do better than market forces at keeping powerful companies in check. In nearly all industries (the notable exceptions include utilities, such as gas and water supply), they cannot.

So why might antitrust authorities be especially nervous about high-technology markets? Economic theory suggests several good reasons:

Networks. One possible cause of market failure is that many information-age industries serve their customers via different kinds of networks. These links may be physical — eg, telecommunications systems or computer networks — or they may be more loosely defined, consisting of the users of, say, a particular piece of computer software. Networks bias industries towards monopoly, or at least oligopoly, because on the demand side they are subject to economies of scale: the value placed on membership by a consumer rises with the number of other people on the network.

Systems. Computer software, television decoders and other products of the information age are not used in isolation. They are bits of “systems”, in which one particular component cannot be used without another. There is little point in buying a personal computer without an operating system; and operating systems are useless without applications, such as word-processing programs, databases and spreadsheets.

This may mean that if a firm controls one part of the system, it can lever its way into others — so spreading its monopoly. Microsoft’s critics say that it could, for instance, use profits from the operating-system market to subsidise applications programs. And by embedding programs for free in its operating system, it could remove any incentive for customers to pay extra for rivals’ programs.

Standards. Networks and systems need common standards: without them, network users cannot communicate with one another, and one part of a system might not be compatible with the next. But while standards make industries run more efficiently, they may also have drawbacks of their own.

One is that if a firm creates an industry standard, it can wield enormous market power. Since individual consumers and other firms need to invest time and money in acquiring skills specific to the industry standard (eg, learning how to use Microsoft Windows), they get “locked in”. As switching systems means learning new skills, would-be entrants face a considerable entry barrier.

Another potential drawback, say some economists, is that big companies can use their market power to ensure that their way of doing things becomes the standard — and, in consequence, make themselves more powerful still. There is no guarantee that the standard they impose will be the most efficient.

Innovation. Computing, telecoms and the media have all seen rapid technological change. A stream of new ideas and products has sustained vigorous competition in most areas of these industries, driving costs and prices down. Thus, even if the product market were monopolised, trustbusters could afford to be sanguine if producers of new ideas were still able to make their way to market, or at least to force dominant companies to keep innovating and cutting prices themselves. But if such innovations also became monopolised, antitrust authorities would be right to worry.

Even if any of these worries are justified, there may still not be a good case for antitrust authorities to wade in. The existence of economies of scale in networks, for example, does not mean that monopoly is inevitable: several networks can coexist. If costs are cut in the process, and if the threat of new competition is maintained, consumers will enjoy lower prices.

Jumpy antitrust authorities may try to pre-empt anti-competitive behaviour by framing rules of entry into infant markets. That is more likely to work in mature monopolistic industries, such as utilities, where technological change is slow and trends fairly predictable. The speed of change in high-tech industries has consistently wrong-footed trustbusters. For the time being at least, it may be more sensible to trust the market.

VOCABULARY

1. antitrust	антитрастовый
2. venture	рискованное начинание, коммерческое предложение, предприятие высокотехнологической отрасли
3. telecoms firm	фирмы телекоммуникационной связи
4. trustbuster (s)	сторонники антитрастовых мер
5. utilities	коммунальные службы (услуги)
6. oligopoly	олигополия (доминирование на рынке небольшого числа крупных фирм)
7 .innovations	новшества; новые изобретения; инновации
8. infant markets	зарождающиеся, новые рынки

2. Напишите аннотацию данного текста.

«Business and Businesses»

Topics for discussion

1. Multinational corporations are at the heart of the debate over the merits and faults of global economic integration.

2. Multinationals and global investment.

3. Multinationals and developing countries.

4. Vertical integration as a factor for the growth in multinationals.

5. Small business — the core of national economies.

6. The leaders of high-technology industries pose a threat to free markets.

UNIT VII. MANAGEMENT. MARKETING.

Text A.

INSTANT COFFEE.

1. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. What is management ?

вопросы без предварительного 2. Are there any ready-made techniques

чтения текста : for perfect management ?

2. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. What are management fads ?

вопросы после после беглого 2. What is called «instant coffee»

просмотра текста : management ?

3. What is «critical thinking» ?

3. Прочитайте следующий текст и найдите ключевые слова и предложения в каждом абзаце:

INSTANT COFFEE AS MANAGEMENT THEORY.

For success in the $20-billion-a-year management-consultancy business, find a fad. In recent years total quality, culture change, core competences, organisational flattening, benchmarking, outsourcing and downsizing have all been touted as the sole path to corporate salvation. For a taste, take Michael Hammer and James Champy in their best-selling book, “Re-engineering the Corporation” (HarperBusiness, 1994): corporate America’s alternative to re-engineering, they say, is “to close its doors and go out of business. The choice is that simple and that stark.” Is management really so easy?

For all the hype, fad-based management usually fails to deliver. Quality programmes are launched with great fanfare, then fade away: Florida Power & Light, an electricity company, at one time boasted an 85-person quality department and 1,900 quality teams, but saw little improvement in its services. Cutting management layers often disrupts internal communications, as firms such as Nynex and Sears, Roebuck have discovered. Many companies — among them Compaq and Harley-Davidson — have found outsourcing so hard to manage that some previously subcontracted production is now back in-house. And, according to the American Management Association, fewer than half of the firms that have downsized since 1990 have seen long-term improvements in quality, profitability or productivity.

Some economists argue that every fad leads managers down one or more of several “false trails”. These include believing that ready-made techniques can solve any problem; taking action, any action (the “ready, fire, aim” stance); flattening every structure in sight; and constructing corporate cultures based on happy families, not hierarchies.

They concede that these trails lead to some useful ideas. The snag, however, is that managers tend to take their usefulness on trust. This has spawned what is called “instant coffee” management: just open the jar and add water, no effort required. Worse, any manager who fails to follow the latest fad — regardless of its relevance — risks being thought unprofessional. Faddishly following the false trails is damaging to “the sophisticated formal organisation and decision systems that corporations have evolved and which make management effective.” Companies are damaged in other ways, too. Management gurus encourage firms to believe that all fixes are not just easy to implement but quick to take effect: quality programmes will produce rapid declines in defect rates; re-engineering will swiftly revitalise paralysed processes; making use of subcontractors will instantly clear clogged production lines. So managers take on too many fads at once, causing “an overdose of instant remedies” When the promised benefits fail to appear, managers lose heart — which is why most re-engineering and quality initiatives eventually break down.

The allure of fads undermines rational management and thinking at every level of the corporation. In the early 1990s Chrysler’s Jeep division found that sun visors on some of its vehicles were splitting after sale. The team behind the visors took a fashionable tack: they set about re-engineering the entire product, along with the processes used to make it. Robert Lutz, Chrysler’s president, suggested that the team instead try to discover the specific cause of the defect. Only then did they find that a supplier’s worn tool was to blame — a glitch that was easily fixed without extensive re-engineering.

As with sun visors, so with entire firms. A better approach is a return to what is called “professional management” But it is less clear about what this entails, apart from years of experience, lofty ideals and ethics, and the ability to use “sound reasoning” to assess the ideas behind the fads.

The trouble with ready-made one-size-fits-all management techniques is that they encourage “the outsourcing of critical thought”. Fads lead managers to believe that simple initiatives offer simple answers to the problems of the complex, inter-related system at the heart of the modern company. In reality, such an approach will probably have an unexpected — and often unwelcome — impact on many different aspects of the company’s operetions. Since firms also exist as part of a network of suppliers, patners and customers, the potential for chaos is vast.

What clever managers have in common is their ability to think about their companies in the way Mr Lutz thought about sun visors: appraise every situation individually, indentify the problems involved and the decisions that must be taken, then analyse the potential drawbacks or opportunities.

Thinking management, is the approach of some of the most successful companies of recent decades, such as Wal-Mart, Sony, Hewlett-Packard and Johnson & Johnson. These firms understand that there is no competitive advantage to be gained simply by adopting the same fad or strategy as your competitors. Instead, they have consistently outclassed the “critical thinking skills” of their rivals in everything from product development to distribution and marketing — all with barely a fad in sight. It has to be asked: could fadless management be the next management fad?

VOCABULARY

1. total quality (TQM-total quality Management)	общее управление качеством
2. fad	зд. новомодная идея, способная с наибольшей эффективностью усовершенствовать управление деятельностью компании; готовый «рецепт»; «стандартный рецепт» по улучшению деятельности компании
3. management-consultancy business	бизнес по предоставлению консультационных услуг в области менеджмента
4. culture change	зд. изменение корпоративной «культуры» (подхода к ведению бизнеса)
5. core-competences	основной вид деятельности производства
6. organisational flatenning	компактность управленческой структуры
7. benchmarking	1.определение исходных (основных) ориентиров, конъюнктурные обзоры 2. копирование известных тогровых марок; «следование за лидером»; выбор товарных эталонов
8. outsourcing	привлечение субпоставщиков
9. downsizing	достижение оптимального числа (сокращении) управленческого персонала
10. re-engineering	реорганизация и совершенствование процесса деятельности
11 .in-house production	собственное производство (без привлечения субпоставщиков)
12. American Management Association	Американская ассоциация менеджмента
13. ready-made techniques	готовые средства (методы, приемы)
14. quality programmes	программы по повышению качества
15. defect rate(s)	уровень брака в производстве
16. «the outsourcing of critical thought»	зд. использовать чужие идеи по изменению (улучшению) корпоративной деятельности
17. to outclass	оставить далеко позади, превзойти
18. product development	разработка, совершенствование изделий
19. distribution	распределение, сбыт
20. marketing	маркетинг

4. Переведите данный текст.

5. Напишите реферат и аннотацию данного текста.

Text B.

1. Переведите следующий текст:

WHY TOO MANY MERGERS MISS THE MARK.

Does one plus one equal three? Many American firms seem to think so.

Yet most corporate couplings are unhappy ones. A servey of more than 300 big mergers over the past ten years by Mercer Management Consulting, a consultancy based in New York, found that, in the three years following the transactions, 57% of the merged firms lagged behind their industries in terms of total returns to shareholders. The long-run failure rate appears to be even higher. Why do so many usually sensible strategists make so many bad bets?

Successful acquirers already know what they want to do with companies they hope to buy before bidding for them and identify three neat, but oversimplified, combinations: an “absorption” approach, which takes away the acquired firm’s independence; a “presentation” approach, which keeps (the acquired firm at arms length; and a “symbiotic” acquisition in which the two firms initially co-exist, and then gradually become interdependent.

After each botched deal, a number of usual suspects get the blame: “there was no synergy between the two firms’ businesses”, or “it was a hostile takeover” or even “the deal was simply too expensive”. All these things can indeed wreck a corporate marriage, but disaster is not inevitable. For instance, one recent study by McKinsey, another consultancy, found that 80% of takeovers by leveraged-buyout companies over the past ten years — which mostly have no synergies with their targets — earned their cost of capital. Similarly, there is no consistent link between the size of the premium paid for a firm (even if it is a bid’s hostility that raised the price) and a merger’s long-term ability to create value.

What does seem to link most mergers that fail is the acquirer’s obsession with the deal itself, coupled with too little attention to what happens next — particularly the complex business of blending all the systems, informal processes and cultures that make the merging firms tick. In the 1980s, this “soft stuff” often did not matter: anybody could make a merger pay off if enough jobs and capacity were cut. But now most of those surplus workers and factories are gone. “Top managers often don’t value the qualities of a firm they are buying,” says Rosabeth Moss Kanter of Harvard Business School. As a result, they destroy much of its existing value.

How that destruction takes place — and how to stop it — is starting to trouble management thinkers because they bear some of the blame for the phenomenon. Having urged bosses to re-engineer, downsize and thin out their management ranks, they have left those top executives still more isolated from what goes on in their firms. Managers of business units, who are rarely at the table when a takeover is negotiated, are now even further removed from strategic decisions. Yet it is these demoralised souls who are expected to put into practice a firm’s post-merger “integration strategy”. So the destruction of much of a merger’s potential value takes place out of sight of the bosses who championed it.

The most obvious signs of damage tend to be in all the formal systems and processes that, before the deal, helped each firm to function: everything from its chain-of-command to its internal mail. Merging these creates a logarithmic increase in complexity and inefficiency. Following the (ultimately profitable) merger of Chemical Bank and Manufacturers Hanover in 1991, the duo spent six months trying to integrate their computer systems. They finally settled on a fudge that left Chemical’s computers in charge of cheque processing and Manufacturers’ system — then still under development-running consumer banking. The chaos took 18 months to sort out.

Fusing formal systems and processes is a complicated business. But informal systems, processes and networks (essentially, “the way we do things around here”) can be even more obstructive, so after a merger — especially one that costs jobs or results in a disruptive restructuring — “you get a disconnect in the hidden structure of the organisation.” And when this happens, employees — usually those at the firm that is being bought — frequently lose their mental map of how the company really works.

VOCABULARY

1. merger	слияние
2. to lag behind	отставать, оставаться позади
3. acquirer	компания приобретающая контрольный пакет акций другой компании
4. «absorption» acquisition	полное «поглощение» одной компанией другой
5. «presentation» acquisition	«представительское» приобретение (одной компанией другой)
6. «symbiotic» acquisition	«симбиотическое» приобретение (одной компанией другой)
7. botched deal	плохопродуманная сделка
8 .synergy	синергия, полная интеграция деятельности двух компаний
9. hostile takeover	«враждебное» поглащение
10 .leveraged-buyout (LBO)	покупка контрольного пакета акций за счет заемных средств (финансируется выпуском новых акций или с помощью кредита)
11. «soft stuff»	зд. Неформальные аспекты деятельности компании
12. «integration strategy»	стратегия интеграции
13. chain-of-command	цепь инстанций, иерархическая система

2. Напишите аннотацию данного текста.

Text C.

1. Прочитайте следующий текст и дайте ответы на вопросы:

1. What were McDonald’s efforts to break into South Africa ?

2. Do they McDonald’s rely too heavily on their powerful brand ?

3. Do local brands and tastes matter in fast-food business ?

JOHANNESBURGERS AND FRIES.

If the managers of any food brand could be forgiven for arrogance, it would be those at McDonald’s. Last year, the burger-chain’s trademark was rated the world’s top brand by Interbrand, a consultancy, beating Coca-Cola into second place. McDonald’s operates over 21,000 fast-food restaurants in 104 countries. Its golden arches overlook piazzas and shopping malls from Moscow to Manila.

In recent years, faced with greater competition in the United States, the company has increasingly relied on overseas markets as a source of profits. Managers at McDonald’s pride themselves on knowing how to adapt the Big Mac to local markets, whilist promoting the same basic idea: good, fast food served in clean surroundings by a company with a strong family brand.

In 1995, as part of this overseas empire-building, McDonald’s made its first venture into sub-Saharan Africa, the last frontier of emerging markets. The company began its trek on the southern tip, in South Africa. But the journey across the country turned out to be more difficult than managers had expected. It even raises questions about the invincibility of the famed McDonald’s brand.

Like many American multinationals, McDonald’s had long had its eye on the South African market, but waited until the end of apartheid before it felt ready to enter. During the 1980s, the strong anti-apartheid lobby in America, combined with federal, state and local trade sanctions, made the prospect of investing in South Africa a big public-relations risk. Under such pressure, several American companies already trading there had left the country. Others, including McDonald’s, stayed well away.

But McDonald’s was only biding its time. It had registered its world-famous trademark in South Africa as early as 1968. In 1993, a year before South Africa’s first non-racial general election, McDonald’s finally decided to press ahead with an investment in the country.

However, by the time the first McDonald’s restaurant opened in 1995, it was clear that the American giant was entering a rather unusual market. Its forays into other emerging markets around the world had generally been successful. But South Africa did not fit the typical formula: it had already developed a first-world consumer industry in almost complete commercial isolation, behind the shelter of sanctions and its own protective tariffs. Thus cosseted, South Africa’s fast-food companies had built up several strong home-grown brands, specifically catering to South African tastes. Nobody at McDonald’s realised how difficult it would be to break in.

The first sign that South Africa might give McDonald’s some indigestion came in mid-1993, when the company discovered that a local trader had applied both to register the “McDonald’s” trademark for his own use, and to have the American company’s rights to the trademark withdrawn (its trademark registration had technically expired). McDonald’s instantly filed a case against the trader, and applied to re-register the trademark for itself.

At the time, the company’s managers did not expect the lawsuit to be too much of a bother. As one of the world’s leading brands, by then running fast-food restaurants in dozens of countries worldwide, McDonald’s was plainly associated with the trademark around the globe and could reasonably expect the South African courts to protect it from lookalikes. Although its trademark registration had expired in the country, there were good reasons for this. McDonald’s argued, under a clause in South African law, that “special circumstances” had prevented it entering the market: namely, trade sanctions against South Africa and pressure from the antiapartheid lobby in America.

When the case came to the Supreme Court, in October 1995, things did not turn out quite the way McDonald’s had expected. Three cases, in fact, were heard at the same time. Two were brought by South African traders, Joburgers Drive-Inn Restaurant and Dax Prop, each of which already ran a fast-food restaurant under the name “MacDonalds” and each of which wanted to deprive McDonald’s of the right to trade under that name. The third case was brought by McDonald’s, which was suing the other companies for using and imitating its brand.

The cases rested on two questions. The first was whether McDonald’s was a “well-known mark”. If it was, then the company would be instantly entitled to protection from imitation by local traders, and the impostors would have to pack up shop. The second was whether McDonald’s claim of “special circumstances” could be justified.

For McDonald’s managers, the answer to the first question was self-evident. Though they recognised that South Africa had a relatively sophisticated fast-food industry of its own, with many brands of beef- and chicken-burgers, the idea that such a famous global brand might not be well-known on the southern tip of Africa seemed preposterous.

As part of its defence, McDonald’s presented the results of two market-research surveys conducted in South Africa to show that the brand was well-known. Both confirmed that a large majority of those interviewed had at least heard of the name, and over half were both aware of the brand and could recognise the McDonald’s logo. Which was all very well, said the judge presiding in the Supreme Court case, but the surveys were conducted among whites living in posh suburbs and could “by no stretch of the imagination be regarded as representative of the entire South African population”, 76% of which is black. The judge took an equally dim view of other evidence presented by McDonald’s, and threw its case out.

What of the second question, concerning the firm’s claim that “special circumstances” had kept it out of South Africa’s market? McDonald’s had first registered its trademark in South Africa in 1968, and then renewed it at regular intervals until 1985. Under South African law as it stood at the time, a company lost its right to the trademark if it languished unused on the books for five years, unless there was a good reason.

Again, the judge was unconvinced. He did not believe that “special circumstances” — pressure from anti-apartheid groups and sanctions — were the real reasons that McDonald’s had left its trademarks unused for so long: “there is no explanation for the failure to commence business in South Africa,” he declared, “other than the fact that South Africa simply did not rank on McDonald’s list of priorities.”

These legal setbacks were embarrassing but temporary. McDonald’s was allowed to press ahead with opening restaurants whilst it prepared its case for the Appeal Court. In 1996 the American burger chain won this second battle: the Appeal Court, in essence, applied a less strict test of what it meant to be well-known in South Africa, and accepted the evidence in the two surveys because it thought that whites represented McDonald’s target market.

Although the direct financial effect of the first court decision was negligible, the case was a harbinger of the sort of trouble that McDonald’s was to encounter throughout South Africa. It was also the first inkling that South Africans might not regard the Big Mac with the same reverence that Americans do.

McDonald’s has made changes to its menu to cater to local tastes elsewhere in the world. Last year, it launched its first restaurants in India. To respect local custom, the menu there did not include beef. Instead, there was a novel item: the Maharaja Mac, made with mutton but served in the McDonald’s sesame-seed bun. In South Africa, however, the firm judged that the market was not different enough to merit introducing changes from the start; it would wait instead to see how well the standard McDonald’s menu went down.

McDonald’s experience in South Africa shows how even the strongest brands from developed countries cannot expect to trample all before them in developing ones — particularly when consumers can choose established local alternatives. McDonald’s has also run into trouble in the Philippines, where a popular local fast-food firm, called Jollibee, has so far trounced it with a distinctively Asian menu that includes burgers and rice.

Many observers would bet that, through the sheer power of its marketing, McDonald’s will eventually barge into South Africa and other emerging markets. But given that the owner of “the world’s leading brand” has had such trouble, western companies with a less recognisable trademark might think twice before following its example.

VOCABULARY

1 .trademark	торговая марка
2. brand	фирменный знак (марка)
3. fast food chain	сеть службы «быстрого питания» (закусочных)
4. logo	эмблема, фирменный знак или товарный знак

2. Напишите реферат и аннотацию данного текста.

«Management. Marketing».

Topics for discussion

1. Many management fads merely trivialise the business of management. It is time managers went back to basics.

2. Thinking management instead of ready-made one-sise-fit-all management techniques.

3. Many mergers fail to create value for shareholders.

4. A firm’s post-merger integration strategy must be clearly identified.

5. Breaking into new markets multinationals can rely on their powerful brands. Local brands, and tastes, matter too.

UNIT VIII. FINANCIAL MARKETS.

Text A.

A SMOOTHER RIDE, BUT LESS FUN.

1. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. Do the world’s financial markets grow more

вопросы без предварительного integrated ?

чтения текста: 2. Does closer integration bring huge benefits

to borrowers and lenders?

2. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. Is volatility and diversity of financial

вопросы после беглого просмотра markets good for traders ?

текста: 2. Why do more fund managers invest

in a combination of domestic and

emerging-market equities ?

3. Why are financial intermediaries

going to be under increasing

preassure ?

3. Прочитайте следующий текст и найдите ключевые слова и предложения (фрагменты):

A SMOOTHER RIDE, BUT LESS FUN.

To many, the global capital market is a truly wonderful thing. To firms, it offers access to a greatly expanded pool of international capital; to investors, a chance to earn higher returns. And to those in the middle — the dealers and brokers who make these trades happen — the global market, and the frenetic trading activity it generates, seems to promise a handsome living.

As individual financial markets become more closely linked, however, they will increasingly move together. Volatility and diversity are good for traders, whether of currencies or securities. So could closer integration, while bringing huge benefits to borrowers and lenders, hurt the profits of those in the middle — the traders?

Currency traders seem to have the most to fear. Quite apart from any increase in market correlation, some markets could be wiped out altogether, by European economic and monetary union (EMU). Although the world’s heaviest-trading takes place between the dollar and the D-mark, and between the dollar and the yen, eliminating a handful of EMU currencies would still take a huge bite out of the market. Steven Bell, chief economist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, has estimated, for several financial centres, the percentage of all foreign-exchange trades that occur between potential EMU currencies — in his phrase, “EMU crosses”. He concludes that, whereas New York and London would be little affected, Paris and Madrid, which derive half of their foreign-exchange turnover from emu crosses, would lose most of their trading.

Moreover, although some exchange rates can still swing wildly — witness the dollar and yen last year — currency fluctuations seem to have been generally weaker in the 1990s than in the 1980s. The heady growth in foreign-exchange turnover of the 1980s seems to have slowed too. As international flows of goods and capital increase, regional business cycles may become more synchronised, dampening exchange-rate movements. Less volatility is not inevitable, for day-to-day fluctuations may still increase; but it should still worry traders.

Many of those who profit from swings in rich-country exchange rates are taking precautions. Consider Reuters, a financial-information company that depends on the foreign-exchange market for a big slice of its revenues. Not only does the firm provide most of the price and news information on which currency traders depend; it also earns juicy commissions from Dealing 2000, a screen-based trading system on which about 40% of the world’s spot foreign-exchange transactions take place. Rosalyn Wilton, managing director of the division that sells Dealing 2000, believes that increased rich-country correlation is a strong reason for the firm to push into emerging markets.

Swings and roundabouts

Although currency traders are aware of the perils ahead, securities dealers have yet to wake up to them, perhaps because it is trickier to gauge how far world stockmarkets arc becoming more correlated. At some times they have seemed closely synchronised — as in October 1987 when most went into a tailspin. But at others they refuse to fly in formation: last year, the French stockmarket found it hard to get airborne, even as New York and London soared.

Many equity strategists believe that national stockmarkets will move closer together. As an example, they point to the experience of the European Union (EU). In a forthcoming study, a group of economists at BARRA International, a consultancy, looked at the correlation among 19 rich-country stockmarkets. After eliminating the effects of swings in the global economy and in individual industries, they found that nine eu stockmarkets have become more correlated since the early 1980s.

When they applied similar analysis to world stockmarkets, they found less evidence of increasing correlation. Yet many believe that world markets will undergo the same experience. One reason is that national economies are becoming more integrated. The main causes of this are increases in international capital flows and falling trade barriers. These factors will make national economies — and hence stock-markets — more dependent on supply and demand in other economies.

A stronger argument still may be that direct barriers to integration are continuing to fall, as capital controls are rolled back and better technology slashes transaction costs. As this happens, argues Robert Merton, a financial economist at Harvard Business School, national markets may be more exposed to world economic trends. This should make equity markets more closely correlated, threatening the profits of those who depend on diversity.

If you ask most equity analysts — even those who believe that more correlated markets lie just over the horizon — what all this might mean for trading profits, you are more than likely to be greeted with an earful of fluff. One analyst who has given it serious thought, however, is Mark Cliffe, an economist at HSBC Markets, a British securities firm. He argues that increasing integration will diminish the gains from diversification among rich-country markets dramatically. As a result, he claims, more fund managers will imitate the strategy of some American funds by “leapfrogging” part of the international diversification process: they will ignore many developed markets altogether, and invest in a combination of domestic and emerging-market equities since these are likely to remain less correlated for longer. This could cut the profits of mid-sized securities firms in America and Europe, which depend on the eagerness of rich-country investors to pile into each other’s markets.

Nor will securities firms in emerging markets automatically benefit. For a start, if rich-country investors come rushing in, it will probably be because barriers, both economic and regulatory, fall. But it is these barriers that have given local firms an advantage in the first place. Integrated global markets would also put local players at a disadvantage for another reason: the kind of information that is valuable would change dramatically, becoming more international and less local.

The big squeeze

Ultimately, even big firms in rich countries may be at risk. This is because the thing that they are promoting, and that is tying stock-markets closer together — bigger flows of portfolio capital — is going to pose a more direct threat to their livelihood. So will computer technology and increased awareness of costs among borrowers.

The main force behind increased portfolio flows is the expanding global reach of fund managers, who are slashing execution costs in several ways, none of them good for traders. Technology and deregulation are uncovering restrictive practices that have protected traders for years. And users of capital are questioning why they should pay bankers and brokers at all, rather than dealing direct with the fund managers. All this means that financial intermediaries are going to be under increasing pressure, from all sides. Some may relish the notion that increased integration means a smoother ride; but they may soon start to yearn for the old rollercoaster.

VOCABULARY

1. trade (s)	операции, сделки на бирже
2. volatility	неустойчивость конъюнктуры (например, изменение валютных курсов)
3. diversity	распределение капитала (инвестиций) между разными финансовыми инструментами и другими активами для снижения риска
4. trader	член биржи, непосредственно участвую-щий в ее торгах за свой счет
5. macket correlation	корреляция рынков, взаимосвязь или взаимозависимость рынков
6. foreign-exchange turnover	объем сделок с иностранной валютой на бирже за определенный период времени
7. cross (es) (cross-rate)	кросс-курс(ы) зд. соотношение между двумя валютами определяемое на основании курса этих валют по отношению к третьей валюте
8. trading	торги на бирже
9. currency fluctuations	колебания курсов валют
10. business cycle	экономический цикл
11. swings	зд. колебания валютных курсов
12. screen-based trading system (over-the-counter)	система внебиржевых операций или сделок (по телефону, телексу или с помощью компьютерной сети)
13. sport foreign-exchange transaction (s)	валютная сделка «спот», т.е. с немедлен-ным расчетом (на второй рабочий день после заключения сделки)
14. roundabouts ( чаще swings and roundabouts)	непредсказуемые изменения рыночной конъюнктуры
15. securities dealers	дилеры, специализирующиеся на опера-циях с ценными бумагами
16. tailspin	резкое падение; паника (на бирже)
17. equity market (s)	фондовый рынок
18. diversification	см. Diversity
19. fund (s)	зд. 1) инвестиционный(е) фонд(ы); средст-ва, собранные подобными фондами, 2) ценные бумаги, приносящие доход
20. fund manager	управляющий фондом
21. «leapfrogging»	зд. «увертываться», стремление избежать негативных последствий
22. player	игрок на фондовой бирже
23. portfolio capital	портфельный капитал
24. execution costs	зд. расходы, связанные с использованием биржевой сделки или приказа биржевому брокеру
25. financial intermediaries	финансовые посредники (т.е. лица, уполно-моченные на совершение операций за счет клиента)

4. Переведите отрывок «Swings and roundabouts».

5. Напишите реферат и аннотацию данного текста.

Text B.

1. Прочитайте и переведите следующий текст:

INVESTORS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIAN EQUITIES.

There is nothing like sitting on a fat, unrealised profit to make an investor nervous, and a fat paper profit is precisely what you should have if you put your money into south-east Asian equities at the start of the year and kept it there.

The phenomenon of soaring stock prices has not been confined to the biggest markets in the region. Trading volumes have swollen too.

Investors, who are understandably considering selling their south-east Asian shares to realise profits, are faced with a familiar dilemma: they cannot think of anything they would rather buy, but they fear a regional stock-market crash or at least a sharp correction in the weeks ahead.

Indeed, this week has seen reverses in many of the region’s markets as investors have decided to book some of the profits rollowing the recent strong advances.

Most of the stockbrokers analysing such risks start by looking at the reasons for this extraordinarily robust performance by south-east Asian equities. Some of them are obvious. Except in the Philippines, the region’s economies have shrugged off recessions in the Japanese, US and European markets and are typically growing by 8 per cent a year.

Some of the causes are peculiar to particular markets. In Malaysia, stock market activity has been fuelled by political manoeuvring and the distribution of financial favours. In Singapore, the government has launched a campaign to promote share ownership.

Such special factors, however, are only part of the story. Stock market analysts agree that south-east Asian markets, like equity markets elsewhere, are “liquidity-driven”. In other words they are beneficiaries of the worldwide fall in interest rates which has tempted large sums of money out of bank deposits and into equities.

Previous rallies in south-east Asia have often been prompted by local speculators driving up the price of secondary stocks, with foreign investors tagging along behind saying: “We know this company is fundamentally unsound, but we’re going to buy it anyway because we know local shareramping will increase the value of the shares.”

This time, the situation is different. Foreign investors, particularly US mutual funds increasing their exposure to the economies of south-east Asia, have led the charge, buying blue chip shares.

The new money makes a profound impact. Although the capitalisation of south-east Asian markets is growing fast — and some of them can now absorb the $ lm plus buy orders demanded by big international investors — their small size means that a rush of foreign buying can have a disproportionate effect on share prices and market indices.

Stock market analysts say the principal risk of a sharp fall in the value of south-east Asian stocks will come from abroad. If world interest rates rise, foreign money may try to get out of Asian stocks as quickly as it is now trying to get in; just as demand for relatively illiquid stocks forces prices to rise exceptionally sharply, so selling pressure forces prices sharply down.

A further problem in south-east Asia, with the notable exception of Singapore, is that several markets are poorly regulated. Foreign investors are partly shielded from this by the preponderance of blue chips in their portfolios, and both Thailand and Malaysia have recently established securities commissions in an attempt to improve company disclosure and control insider dealing.

No-one would be surprised if a sharp fall in regional equity values revealed a few companies with difficulties that they were able to hide in a bull market.

Price/earnings ratios are not excessive on south-east Asia markets in comparison with the industrialised world and price levels can be justified by strong corporate earnings growth.

Any fall in Asian stock markets prompted by an outflow of foreign funds is likely to be limited by the fact that Asians are becoming increasingly wealthy and active in thier own markets. Even during the recent surge of foreign buying, foreign investors in the Thai market were accounting for only about a fifth of turnover.

Only a rash investor, however, would rule out the possibility of a sustained sharp downward correction in equity values across the region after such a bull market.

Indeed, the recent Asia’s financial crisis has swept up some of the world’s best managed companies. So no one would fault you if you steered clear of Asia until the ruckus dies down.

VOCABULARY

1. unrealized profit	нереализованная прибыль
2. paper profit	см. unrealized profit
3. to realize profit	зд. получить реальную прибыль
4. stock-market crash	кризис на фондовом рынке; резкое падение цен на акции
5. correction	обратное движение цен (обычно снижение)
6 .to book profits	зд. реализовать прибыль
7. advances	зд. рост цен на акции
8. to promote share ownership	содействовать расширению числа держателей акций
9. «liquidity-driven»	ориентированый на высоколиквидные инструменты
10. beneficiary	извлекающий прибыль, выгодоприобретатель; зд. быть более привлекательным для инвесторов
11. bank deposit	банковский депозит (вклад)
12. rally ( ies )	значительное повышение курсов ценных бумаг
13. secondary stocks (secondaries)	«второстепенные» акции, т.е. акции небольших компаний, инвестиции в которые связаны со значительным риском
14. share-ramping	искусственное взвинчивание цен
15. mutual funds	совместные фонды
16. blue chip	популярные акции крупных и надежных компаний
17. capitalisation	капитализация, т.е. суммарная рыночная стоимость выпушенных акций компаний, а также стоимость всех акций на данной бирже.
18. market indices	биржевые индексы
19. company disclosure	отчетность компаний, предоставление сведений о своей деятельности
20. insider-dealing	незаконные операции с ценными бумагами на основе полученной закрытой («внутренней») информации о деятельности компании-эмитета.
21. bull market	конъюнктура рынка, характеризующаяся ростом котировок.
22. Price/earnings ratio (s) (P/E ratio; PER)	индекс доходности, т.е. отношение рыночной цены акции компании к ее чистой прибыли в расчете на одну акцию
23. corporate earnings	корпоративные доходы
24. ruckus	зд. биржевой кризис, паника

2. Напишите аннотацию данного текста.

Text C.

1. Прочитайте следующий текст и найдите ключевые слова и предложения (фрагменты):

FIXED AND FLOATING VOTERS.

Every time one of the world’s currencies plunges, policy-makers start to wonder aloud whether anything can be done to prevent a repeat performance. The recent fall in the dollar has proved no exception. The president of the European Commission, and various French politicians are among those who have called for a revival of international exchange-rate agreements. Such calls have rekindled a long-running debate among economists about the relative merits of fixed and floating exchange-rate systems.

The beauty of a floating-rate system is that it allows a country to adjust monetary policy without worrying about the exchange rate. Provided that domestic wages and prices do not immediately adjust to offset any exchange-rate move, it also allows them to respond to an external shock, such as an oil-price rise, through a change in the exchange rate rather than a more painful domestic adjustment.

There are two snags, however. Floating exchange rates can be highly volatile. This can cause price instability that harms prospects for trade and investment. Under a floating-rate system a government may also be tempted to pursue an excessively loose monetary policy, which results in higher inflation. Fixed-exchange regimes avoid botn of these problems; but at the cost of making it harder for countries to adjust to external shocks.

Ideally, governments would like the best of both worlds — currency stability, but also the ability to adjust exchange rates if absolutely necessary. Barry Eichengreen, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, suggests that the success of any managed exchange-rate regime that seeks to deliver this combination will depend on three tests. It must be flexible enough to cope with economic shocks. It must be robust enough to convince the markets that governments are committed to defending their pegged rates in all but the most exceptional circumstances. And it must be able to see off speculators who decide to put this commitment to the test.

Some previous managed exchange-rate systems have more or less done all this. Under the classic gold standard, for instance, countries suspended convertibility if their economies ran into serious trouble. Under the Bretton Woods system of fixed-but-adjustable exchange rates, winch ended in 1971, the International Monetary Fund provided liquidity to help countries maintain their exchange-rate peg. In circumstances or “rundamental disequilibrium”, however, they were allowed to devalue. The early years of the Uropean exchange-rate mechanism (ERM) also passed the tests.

But in future similar regimes will find it harder. Political pressure to use the exchange rate to cope with economic shocks will undermine a pegged system’s credibility, tempting speculators to attack it. And he suggests that greater capital mobility will make it increasingly difficult for countries to defend target parities against speculators.

That may not stop politicians from trying. Among other things, they can raise interest rates, reimpose capital controls or call for foreign support to prop up their currencies. But this will not be enough. Financial innovations such as derivatives and increased cross-border investment will make capital controls all but impossible to enforce. Raising interest rates to defend a currency is often politically unpopular — and, in debt-laden countries, may be counter-productive because it increases debt-interest costs. Nor can any country count on unlimited intervention by others to support its currency.

Any system based on explicit exchange-rate targeting is doomed. The only options are a floating-rate system or monetary unification. This does not mean that countries cannot manage their floating rates by intervening in currency markets; but it does mean that they should not target specific rates. There is evidence to support this view: fewer countries now peg their exchange rates than a decade ago and the ERM, having shed both the pound sterling and the Italian lira, has had to broaden its target ranges.

Do you want to be in my band?

Other economists disagree. They think that exchange-rate systems can be designed to cope with market pressures, and still provide more stability than floating rates. One much-discussed proposal has been put forward by John Williamson of the Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC. He suggests that countries could pre-announce bands for their real exchange rates, specifying a central rate with a 10% margin on either side. Governments would try to keep their nominal exchange rates within this zone. If necessary, rates could be realigned before the limits were reached. Faced with an “unwarranted” speculative attack, a country could temporarily suspend its commitment.

Such a system would retain some flexibilily, white being more stable than managed floating. However if the bands were always moved before they were tested, target zones would be little different from managed floating. If they were not, the system would suffer from the same problems as fixed-rate regimes. At the margin, the practical difference between the two systems may be small. But the success of either will depend, as any exchange-rate system must, on whether governments will allow the exchange rate to be a big factor in setting domestic policies.

VOCABULARY

1. to plunge	резко снижаться (о курсе валют)
2. floating exchange-rate-system	система плавающих валютных курсов
3. to adjust exchange-rates	корректировать, изменять валютные курсы
4. flexible	гибкий, способный изменяться (о валютном курсе)
5. robust	зд. Устойчивый
6. pegged rates	«привязанные» курсы, т.е. привязка курса валюты к какому-либо ориентиру (например, другой валюте)
7. managed exchange-rate-system	система управляемых валютных курсов
8. «fundamental disequilibrium»	валютный курс при отсутствии «фунда-ментального равновесия»
9. target parities	намеченный паритет валют
10. derivatives	производные финансовые инструменты (фьючерсы, опционы и т.д.)
11. debt-interest costs	расходы, связанные с погашением и обслуживанием долга
12. targeting	таргетирование, т.е. установление ориенти-ров (роста)
13. band (s)	предел(ы) колебаний валютных курсов
14. margin	зд. разница между курсами валют
15 .to realign (central rates)	пересмотреть (центральные курсы валют)
16. to be tested	зд. приближаться к предельному уровню (о валютном курсе)

2. Переведите отрывок «Do you want to be in my band ?».

3. Напишите реферат и аннотацию данного текста.

«Financial Markets».

Topics for discussion

1. The world’s financial markets grow more integrated.

2. Closer world integration may hurt profits of financial intermediaries.

3. South-East Asian markets have always been like a warrant to the world stock market: they go up more and they go down more.

4. International coordination over exchange rates may help to avoid the world’s currencies plunges.

5. Financial innovations and increased cross-border investment make capital controls all but impossible to enforce.

UNIT IX. BANKS AND BANKING SAVING.

Text A.

HOW SAFE IS YOUR BANK ?

1. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. Is banking a risky business ?

вопросы без предварительного 2. Are the consequences of a «systemic

чтения текста : collapse» of the world banks liable to

be bigger now than in the recent past ?

3. Do small savers prize safety above all

else ?

2. Дайте ответы на следующие 1. Why do most people assume that

вопросы без предварительного banking is nowadays under control ?

чтения текста: 2. Are banks taking greater risks than

they used to ?

3. What is «narrow» banking ?

4. Does «narrow» banking have its critics?

3. Прочитайте следующий текст и найдите ключевые слова и предложения в каждом абзаце:

HOW SAFE IS YOUR BANK ?

Banking is boring — except to its practitioners, and except when it goes wrong. Most people remember vaguely that a banking crisis helped tip the world into the Great Depression of the 1930s, with all its horrifying consequences for the second half of the century. But most people also assume that banking is nowadays under control, with the danger of failures, panics and runs abolished by careful regulation and the widespread system of deposit insurance. This assumption is, alas, wrong. If anything, the world’s banking system may be becoming even more dangerous than it used to be, and the need for a thorough reform even more urgent.

There has as yet been no other “systemic” collapse on the scale of the 1930s. But failures, panics and runs continue to haunt the world’s banks. They are common in the developing world, but not confined to it. It is, after all, not even a decade since rescuing their mortgage-lending “thrifts” cost America’s taxpayers a decidedly unboring $150 billion. In Japan, the fate of seven ailing mortgage lenders has put a cloud over the country’s banks — and the cost of rescuing the lenders has become one of the central issues in Japan’s politics. A systemic collapse, though maybe less likely than in the recent past, is by no means impossible. And if one did occur, its consequences, both for the world’s financial systems and the broader economy, are liable to be bigger.

Risky business

Why? One reason is that banks are taking greater risks than they used to. Having lost ground in their traditional business of taking deposits (many savers now prefer a mutual fund) and lending at interest (most big firms now go straight to the capital markets), they earn a larger proportion of their income from the volatile trading business. At the same time, they are becoming bigger. For example the formation of two vast new banking groups. In Japan, Mitsubishi Bank and Bank of Tokyo joined forces to become the world’s biggest bank, with ¥75 trillion ($700 billion) of assets. On the same day Chase Manhattan and Chemical Bank sealed America’s biggest-ever banking marriage.

In principle, bigger banks might be safer ones. With more capital, they should be better able to withstand financial shocks, and more willing to splash out on sophisticated risk-management systems. But neither size nor systems guarantee that banks will kick their habit of messing things up from time to time. Barings claimed to have a state-of-the-art system for managing risk. Nonetheless, this venerable British merchant bank was eviscerated by the unhedged bets of a single trader. Although Japan contains nine of the world’s ten biggest banks, its government has had to maintain confidence by promising that none of its top banks will be allowed to fail.

Barings was at least small enough for the Bank of England to stand aside and let it sink. It is doubtful whether banking regulators could confidently do the same with any of the new megabanks. It is at least possible that these would be considered “too big to fail”. Governments would rightly wonder whether the abrupt felling of any one of them might pose a general threat to the financial system, either by triggering a domino-like run on other banks, or by causing a sudden loss of liquidity in national payments systems. The potential damage that such a disaster could cause has risen dramatically in recent years, as banks’ exposure to one another has soared.

Although governments have not been supine in the face of this danger, they have fallen into a trap. Their cumulative efforts to avert trouble have had the perverse effect of adding significantly to the risk. This is because, in most countries, governments have tried to eliminate runs by insuring their citizens’ bank deposits, whether directly or by arranging in advance for sick banks to be rescued. Mostly, this has brought stability. But it has also created a vast moral hazard: a bank that is in trouble, but which knows that there is some form of public safety net slung underneath it, is more likely to take a reckless last gamble with its depositors’ cash.

To solve this problem, countries have relied on regulation. But some regulators are now at last admitting in public that it is increasingly hard for them to keep a close eye on banks whose activities reach far beyond conventional deposit-taking and lending, and which operate globally. To make matters worse, regulators can no longer count on the “Three Musketeers” principle to help them deal with ailing banks. When banking was essentially a cartelised business, bankers were often willing to help support sick rivals as a quid pro quo for protection. But this “one for all and all for one” ethos is being undermined by stiffer competition. These days, it is every bank for itself.

What is to be done? Regulators in America and elsewhere are putting less emphasis on rule-making and more on encouraging banks to buttress their internal controls. Laudable though this effort is, it will not solve the underlying problem: how to let more banks fail without triggering a systemic crisis.

To enable this to happen, governments need to think again about the bargain they have struck with the banks. In return for the safety net (and for the implicit subsidy it entails), they have insisted on close regulation of what the banks do. This solution, inadequate already because of the moral hazard it creates, makes no sense in a system of banking that has become too complex for the regulators to manage. It is time to take seriously the case for a far-reaching reform.

One idea, talked about for years but never adopted, is “narrow banking”. This would restrict deposit insurance to tightly supervised banks that would be allowed to invest only in safe, highly liquid assets, such as government bonds. Most of what is today considered “banking”, including lending, would be left to other, uninsured financial institutions.

Next year’s model?

The beauty of narrow banking is that it would continue to provide a haven for small savers and those who prize safety above all else, while allowing the more adventurous to take a punt on riskier firms. In return for giving up their safety net, these “broad” firms could be regulated far more lightly and so would find it easier to compete with securities houses and other non-bank rivals.

Narrow banking has its critics. One danger is that the new regime would have instabilities of its own. When the sun is shining, would not depositors pile into the “broad” institutions to profit from their higher returns, only to scamper abruptly to safety the moment the economy turned down? In that case, the broad institutions might collapse like ninepins, and governments might need to bail them out anyway. And might the system damage the real economy by making it more expensive for small and middling firms to borrow?

Neither objection is compelling. The first can be dealt with by preventing broad banks from offering deposits redeemable on demand, as narrow banks would. Deposits at broad institutions could have relatively lengthy maturities, giving the institutions time to prepare for outflows. They would also almost certainly have far more capital than today’s banks, and plenty of lines of credit that could be called on in an emergency. As for the cost of lending to small businesses, this would rise, but probably not by much. After all, unsubsidised finance companies already lend to such firms at rates that compete with those of banks.

Switching to narrow banking would be a dramatic and far-reaching change. It would shrink the banking system and redefine the very idea of a bank. That is why governments have so far preferred the ever-worsening muddle of insure-and-regulate. Is it too much to hope that, on this occasion, they will have the sense to fix the roof before the storm breaks?

VOCABULARY

1. banking	банковские операции; банковское дело
2. deposit insurance	страхование вкладов
3. «systemic» collapse	зд. кризис (крах) всей банковской системы
4. run (s) on the banks	зд. массовое изъятие денег из банков
5. mortgage-lending «thrifts»	ссудно-сберегательные учреждения, привлекающие частные сбережения и предоставляющие ипотечные кредиты; ипотечные учреждения
6. to take deposit (s)	принимать вклады (депозиты)
7. savers	вкладчики; частные инвесторы
8. lending at interest	предоставление ссуд под процент; креди-тование
9. trading business	зд. биржевые операции; сделки на фондовой бирже
10 .assets	активы
11. banking marriage (banking merger)	слияние банков
12. Barings	Бэрингз – старейший английский коммерческий банк (разорился в 1995 году)
13. risk-management system	система управления рисками
14. state-of-the-art	новейший, самый современный и передовой
15. merchant bank	коммерческий банк
16. unhedged bets	«незастрахованные» операции на бирже; игра (сделки) на фондовом рынке без хеджирования
17. banking regulators	органы (учреждения) контролирующие и регулирующие банковскую систему
18. loss of liquidity	потеря ликвидных средств
19. national paymen (s) systems	национальные платежные системы (систе-мы переводов платежей и между банками и другими кредитно-финансовыми учрежде-ниями)
20. banks’ exposure	зд. 1) взаимные (межбанковские) долговые обязательства (по кредитам); 2) риски потерь, связанные с межбанковским кредитованием
21. «Three Musketeers» principle = «one for all and all for one»	«один за всех и все за одного»
22. quid pro quo (лат.)	услуга за услугу, компенсация
23. subsidy	субсидия
24. «narrow banking»	«узкие» (надежные) банковские операции», т.е. система, при которой банкам разрешается инвестировать средства только в надежные высоколиквидные активы (при страховании депозитов)
25. «broad» firm (s)	зд. финансовые учреждения, осуществляющие «широкие» операции, с ликвидными активами включая рискованные операции
26. securities houses	инвестиционные компании, фирмы, осуществляющие распространение ценных бумаг и операции с ними
27. to bail out ( banks )	«спасение» банков, находящихся на грани банкротства
28. deposits redeemable on demand	депозиты с выплатой по требованию
29. maturity	зд. наступление срока платежа
30. line (s) of credit	кредитная линия, т.е. неформальное обязательство банка кредитовать клиента до установленного максимума
31. to call on	требовать уплаты
32. cost of lending	зд. ссудный процент

4. Переведите отрывок «Risky business».

5. Напишите реферат аннотацию данного текста

Text B.

1. Прочитайте следующий текст и найдите ключевые слова и предложения (фрагменты):

CENTRAL BANKS ON THE TRAIL OF THE MUTANT IFLATION MONSTER

Any central banker worth his salt knows what central banks are meant to do: aim for “price stability”. But stability of which prices? Are the ever higher prices being paid for “assets’ — most notably shares but also such things as Manhattan apartments, Beatles guitars and vintage wines — as damaging to economies as rapid increases in the average price of goods and services such as carrots, clothes and haircuts?

The question of whether central banks should worry about asset-price inflation as well as product-market inflation is currently the subject of a lively debate — and one of pressing importance. Rising prices for assets usually do not figure in the consumer-price indices by which inflation is conventionally measured. Yet while these indicators show that inflation renfains subdued in developed economies, the prices of financial assets such as shares have been soaring

Central bankers have good reason to hate inflation. By distorting prices, it reduces economic efficiency and therefore can harm growth. It is trickier to spot changes in relative prices if the general price level is rising rapidly. Businesses cannot tell whether rising copper prices, for example, reflect a scarcity of the metal or just a general inflationary trend. So resources are misallocated.

This argument is generally applied to the prices of goods and services for current consumption by households or businesses. But it surely also applies to the prices of claims on future goods and services, such as equities or property. Just as with product prices, rapid increases in asset prices can distort the allocation of resources. If a sharp rise in share prices reduces the cost of capital, for example, then firms will be tempted to overinvest. In addition, property-price booms lure in more investors, who are encouraged to borrow heavily in order to bet on further price gains — a course which eventually ends in tears.

Indeed, the consequences of large increases in asset prices can be much more serious for economies than consumer-price inflation. Soaring share and property prices in Japan in the second half of the 1980s caused massive overinvestment in factories and machinery, and property. The consequent bursting of that bubble has been painful for the economy.

Central banks already look at asset markets for advance signals about the strength of the economy, but there are two reasons why central banks might want to respond more directly to increases in asset prices.

* The wealth effect. Higher asset prices can feed through into the prices of goods and services. Higher share prices boost household wealth, which encourages consumers to spend more. A rise in share prices also makes it cheaper for firms to raise funds and so invest more. Meanwhile, the rise in the value of collateral, such as property, increases the willingness of banks to lend. All these things can swell domestic demand and so push up general price inflation. Likewise, a sharp fall in asset prices might push an economy into recession.

* Financial stability. If an unsustainable rise in asset prices goes into sharp reverse, this can trigger financial instability. Japan’s recent experience offers a painful example of how a collapse in share or property prices can harm a banking system.

Since pricking a financial bubble is a risky business, it is clearly better for central banks to step in early to prevent one developing. The tricky question is how to distinguish asset-price inflation — from a rise in share prices which reflects real future gains in company profits. It is unlikely that the doubling of American share prices over the past three years is fully justified by faster productivity growth and hence higher future profits.

Liquid refreshments

It is true that the growth of money in an individual economy has long ceased to be a reliable compass by which to steer interest rates, but many economists believe that global money-supply growth is still a useful indicator. They argue that global “excess money” (broad money growth minus nominal GDP growth) is a handy gauge of liquidity which is available to invest in financial assets. This measure of liquidity is currently growing at its fastest rate for ten years.

Just as too much money in the real economy chasing too few goods causes goods-price inflation, so too much money in the financial sector chasing too few assets causes asset-price inflation. This theory dates back to Irving Fisher, an early 20th -century economist. He believed that policy-makers should focus on a more broadly defined price index which includes asset prices. A rapid rise in this index would signal the need for tighter policy.

But even if share prices are rising too rapidly, the ability of central bankers to dampen speculative excesses is constrained. Central banks cannot pursue two goals — stable product prices and stable asset prices — with interest rates alone. If a central bank tries to cap asset prices by raising interest rates when there is little sign of inflation in the real economy, it could result in deflation in product markets.

History is instructive. There are two examples of central banks acting to burst share-price bubbles. Both ended in tears. In the late 1920’s, the Fed was at hrst reluctant to focus on the stockmarket as a target of policy; when it did raise interest rates, Wall Street crashed in 1929. Likewise, the Bank of Japan was slow to respond to soaring asset prices in the late 1980s, mainly because inflation remained below 2%; when it finally did, markets crashed.

There is an awkard asymmetry in how central banks can respond to stockmarkets. It is politically much easier for them to slash interest rates quickly to support the economy after share prices have collapsed than it is to raise rates early to let some air out of a financial bubble. Far from being dead, inflation has taken on a new and more dangerous guise.

VOCABULARY

1. consumer-price index (indices)	индекс (ы) потребительских цен
2. financial assets	финансовые активы
3. relative prices	относительные цены
4. household (s)	стат. — домашнее (ие) хозяйство (а)
5. claims on future goods	объекты спроса, стоимость которых возрастет в будущем
6. to bet on further price gains	играть на повышение
7. wealth effect	«эффект богатства», т.е. изменение стоимости активов в результате изменения уровня цен
8. «excess money»	избыточное количество денег в обращении
9. broad money	денежный агрегат М3

2. Переведите отрывок «Liquid refreshments».

3. Напишите реферат и аннотацию данного текста.

Text C.

1. Прочитайте следующий текст и найдите ключевые слова и предложения (фрагменты): :

THE LLOYDS MONEY MACHINE.

Globalisation is sweeping the world of finance. Ignoring that trend has turned an also-ran into the world’s biggest bank — Lloyds TSB. In Britain, Lloyds Bank is a familiar face on the high street. Elsewhere, it is all but unknown to the general public. But its emphasis on serving retail customers with extraordinary efficiency -along with its firm refusal to follow the financial industry’s drive for international diversification—has turned it into a money machine.

Measured by assets, Lloyds tsb is only the fourth-largest banking company in Britain and 33rd in the world. Take market value as the yardstick, however, and a different story emerges. With a stockmarket capitalisation of £42.1 billion ($68.7 billion), LloydsTSB has become the world’s most valuable bank. Its shares are changing hands at seven times book value, twice as much as its British competitors command. A £l,000 investment in Lloyds shares five years ago would now be worth nearly £4,000.

Not long ago, such giddy numbers seemed a pipedream. In the mid-1980s, Lloyds Bank almost went bust in the backwash from Latin America’s debt crisis. The bank had to write off £2.6 billion of dud loans, and its claim to be “a thoroughbred among banks” (its logo is a black horse) met with sniggers. Other British banks that had been hurt in Latin America went cap-in-hand to their shareholders, who patiently gave them new money. Lloyds was in far worse shape, and its shareholders were disinclined to buy a rights issue. Brian Pitman, who became chief executive in 1983, decided that the best way to advance was to retreat. He jettisoned loss-making foreign subsidiaries, wound down investment banking and international lending, and concentrated on the bank’s bread-and-butter business: selling financial services to British consumers.

This flew in the face of banking orthodoxy, which confused size with strength. Mr Pitman, who became Sir Brian in 1994, insisted that increasing the share price was more important than expanding the balance sheet. The bank’s”declared aim is to double the share price every three years. This is not just hot air: it has met this goal consistently for the past 15 years. «He was the first to realise that planting flags around the world was not always the best way to make money», says Fred Crawley, a former Lloyds executive.

Spot the trend

The attention to shareholders has been accompanied by a knack for sensing the direction in which banking was moving. Lloyds was the first big British bank to buy a life assurer, Abbey Life; the first to offer mortgages and to bid for a building society, Cheltenham & Gloucester; the first to close much of its branch network; and the first to bid (unsuccessfully) for another clearing bank, Midland, sparking much-needed banking consolidation in Britain.

The £ 1.8 billion purchase of Cheltenham & Gloucester in 1994 gave Lloyds a valuable brand through which to push its own mortgage business, which had been flagging. Lloyds now issues 16% of new mortgage loans in Britain. In 1995 Sir Brian went after tsb, an institution whose strategy was so obscure that wags had dubbed it “That Sorry Bank”. But TSB could help plug gaps—it had lots of branches in Scotland, where Lloyds had few—and offered plenty of scope to cut costs by eliminating overlaps. Not all the savings have come from tsb. Lloyds discovered that some of tsb’s businesses were better than its own. The telephone bank, which has 800,000 customers, is run by managers from tsb.

These acquisitions have given Lloyds tsb a retail-banking breadth that no other British bank can match. It is the market leader in cheque-writing accounts and personal loans, and the second-largest credit-card issuer. It pumps Lloyds, tsb and c&g products to 15m customers through a network of 2,700 branches, hundreds more than its nearest rival, NatWest.

Lloyds TSB, however, cannot trace its blessings to good management alone. Britain has offered an ideal banking environment in the mid-1990s: the economy has been buoyant, creating heavy demand for loans; long-term interest rates have dropped significantly, increasing the value of banks’ bond and loan portfolios; and rapid employment growth has reduced loan default rates. Under these conditions, the bank’s heavy exposure to Britain is a plus. But if the British economy sputters, rivals like to suggest, Lloyds TSB will sputter with it, far more than its more diversified competitors.

The stockmarket seems to think this an unlikely prospect. But it is clearly the biggest risk in Sir Brian’s strategy. The bank has sought to reduce its vulnerability to economic swings by broadening its consumer-related business. A fifth of its profit now comes from insurance, primarily life insurance, which moves in a different cycle from consumer banking.

In trying to broaden its business, however, Lloyds TSB runs head-on into a problem that most other banks would envy: it simply earns too much money. It would gladly use this for acquisitions. But short of buying another big British bank and closing down hundreds of branches, which would almost certainly be blocked on competition grounds, it is difficult to imagine an acquisition that would be as profitable as Lloyds TSB’S current business. The bank is considering a share buy-back as a way of returning that extra cash to shareholders.

The alternative lies in finding a second “home” market where Lloyds could work its magic. With a single currency looming, continental Europe has attractions. But few banks have a culture similar to Lloyds TSB’s — and few countries would allow the redundancies that would be necessary to meet stringent profit targets.

VOCABULARY

1 .retail customer	зд. Мелкий вкладчик
2. to go bust	обанкротиться
3. to write off	списать
4. dud loans (bad loans)	безнадежные долги, невозвратные долги
5. rights issue	дополнительный выпуск акций
6. foreign subsidiaries	филиалы за границей
7. investment banking	инвестиционная деятельность банков
8. international lending	кредитовых иностранных клиентов
9. balance sheet	балансовый отчет
10. life assurer	фирма, занимающаяся страхованием жизни
11. clearing bank	клиринговый банк
12. mortgage loans	ипотечные кредиты
13. overlaps	зд. Параллельные, дублирующиеся расходы
14. telephone bank	банк, осуществляющий обслуживание клиен-тов по телефону
15. cheque-writing accounts	чековые счета
16. personal loans	личные ссуды, т.е. ссуды частному лицу
17. loan default	несвоевременное погашение ссуды
18. buy-back	«обратная покупка» (акций)

2. Переведите отрывок «Spot the trend».

3. Напишите реферат и аннотацию данного текста.

Text D.

1. Прочитайте следующий текст и найдите ключевые слова и предложения (фрагменты):

RATTLING THE PIGGY BANK.

When bond yields rose sharply last year many economists got into a tizzy about the possibility that the world would start to run short of capital. This triggered an avalanche of studies, of which the latest, from the imf, finds some evidence for such fears. It is this savings shortfall, says the Fund, that is largely to blame for high real interest rates.

By saving rather than consuming current output, countries enjoy less jam today, but because these savings are invested they can look forward to higher income and consumption tomorrow. So if the total supply of savings (whether by individuals, firms or governments) falls, global investment and hence growth will be constrained. Some economists worry that the ageing populations of industrial countries are going to start running down their savings just when the investment appetite of emerging economies is growing. The resulting capital shortage would hit rich industrial economies harder than the developing countries, because they offer a more meagre return on investment.

The IMF finds three pieces of evidence that investment is already being choked off by a savings shortage. Real long-term interest rates are historically high, suggesting an imbalance between desired investment and the supply of capital. Savings and investment have both fallen as a share of GDP over the past decade or so. And the average rate of return on productive capital has almost doubled since the 1960s, suggesting that marginally profitable projects have been squeezed out by a scarcity of savings.

The rise in real interest rates has certainly been striking. And since real long-term interest rates are the price at which global investment demand matches the supply of savings, the rise clearly signals a shift in the balance between savings and investment. But has this been due to greater investment opportunities (due to technological advances, say) or to lower savings?

The former seems unlikely given that the ratio of investment to gdp has fallen since the 1960s. Lower savings seem to be the culprit.

Private savings rates have barely changed since the 1960s in rich countries as a whole (despite some notable exceptions, such as spendthrift America). Instead, the cause of the savings shortfall is that governments in these countries are saving less, i.e. they are borrowing (dissaving) more. The IMF calculates that, on average, each one percentage point rise in the world ratio of government debt to gdp adds 14 basis points (hundredths of a percent) to real long-term interest rates. Indeed, the imf suggests that higher government borrowing explains as much as four-fifths of the increase in real interest rates between the 1960s and now.

Supersavers

Will this savings shortfall increase? This depends upon two factors: how fast developing countries grow and what governments do about their borrowing.

Countries that save more tend to grow faster. Over the past ten years, 14 of the 20 fastest-growing economies had savings rates of more than 25% of GDP. In contrast, 14 of the 20 slowest-growing economies had savings rates below 15%. But which way does the causality run?

Higher savings clearly boost growth by spurring investment. But, intriguingly, the IMF argues that there is also evidence that faster growth itself causes savings rates to rise. Many East Asian economies, for example, enjoyed rapid growth before they began saving more. South Korea was one of the world’s least thrifty countries in the early 1960s; now it is one of its biggest savers. This suggests that a vicious circle connects growth and savings, with faster growth spurring higher savings and higher savings boosting growth. The reason this matters is that it implies that most of the savings needed to finance the investment of fast-growing developing countries will be self-generated.

Saving in developing countries should also rise because of their demographic structures. As more young people reach working age, more will become savers. The IMF estimates that this could boost developing countries’ savings rates by three percentage points of gdp o ver the next 20 years, roughly cancelling out the expected fall in private savings in industrial countries.

Whether a lack of savings will cramp future investment will in the end turn mainly on the fiscal policies of governments in developed countries. In that case, says the IMF, real interest rates could fall by up to two percentage points.

If, on the other hand, growth in developing countries is sluggish and industrial countries continue to run big budget deficits, global savings could drop by 2-3% of GDP, and real interest rates would increase. The IMF'S model suggests that a rise in real interest rates of one percentage point would, in the long run, lead to a 12% reduction in the world’s capital stock. This, in turn, would lower the sustainable level of consumption by 2%.

And the moral of the tale? Global capital markets may have weakened the ability of governments to steer their economies in many ways. But governments do still have the power to boost national savings, by eliminating budget deficits. Doing so will have a much bigger impact on future growth than any amount of fiscal or monetary fine-tuning.

VOCABULARY

1. to run short of capital	испытать нехватку капитала
2. savings shortfall	низкий уровень (нехватка) сбережений
3. total supply of savings	общий объем (сумма) сбережений
4. average rate of return on productive capital	средний уровень доходности производительного капитала (чаще инвестиций в производстве)
5. private savings	частные сбережения
6. dissaving	превышение расходов над доходами («проедание» доходов)
7 .percentage point	стат. — процентный пункт
8. ratio of government debt to GDP	доля государственного долга в ВВП (валовой внутренний продукт)
9 .basis point	базисный пункт
10. capital stock	основные фонды
11. level of consumption	уровень потребления

2. Переведите отрывок «Supersavers».

3. Напишите реферат и аннотацию данного текста .

«Banks and banking. Saving»

Topics for discussion

1. Banking goes global.

2. Banks are taking greater risks than they used to.

3. Central banks and price stability.

4. Lloyds Bank TSB: the best way to advance was to retreat (Lloyds vs. globalization).

5. The world needs to save more to sustain rapid rates of growth.

V .НАИБОЛЕЕ РАСПРАСТРАНЕННЫЕ ТРУДНОСТИ ПЕРЕВОДА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ ТЕКСТОВ С АНГЛИЙСКОГО ЯЗЫКА НА РУССКИЙ.

УПАРЖНЕНИЯ НА ЗАКРЕПЛЕНИЕ НАВЫКОВ ПЕРЕВОДА.

I РАЗДЕЛ

Модальные и вспомогательные глаголы

1. MAY (MIGHT)

В английском тексте глагол may часто означает вполне реальное предположение и переводится на русский язык словами может быть, возможно .

· In many Latin American countries productivity may rise sharply.

Возможно , производительность труда возрастет во многих латиноамериканских странах.

Форма might передает меньшую степень уверенности, а иногда указывает и на сомнение.

· Japan might open its market to foreign competition.

Япония может быть и откроет свой рынок для иностранной конкуренции. (допустит на свой рынок иностранных конкурентов).

Перфектные формы инфинитива после may ( might ) относят действия к прошлому.

· Two factors may temporarily have increased the prices.

Возможно , временное повышение цен было вызвано двумя факторами.

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	Oil *may get cheaper* again within the decade as new supplies are discovered.
2.	In addition, the cost of transportation *may* sharply *limit* the use of fossil fuels in the rural areas of many developing countries.
3.	Government spending on a new steel mill hundreds of miles away *may provide* *interest, speculation* , perhaps even — indirectly — higher taxes and a new village school.
4.	Finally, a new political balance in Europe, based on effective unity, *might turn out to* be the precondition of disengagement.
5.	Situations in which the USA *may have to choose* between rival policies advocated by her European partners are bound to arise.
6.	EU sources said France will favor protectionist measures in critical sectors, but because of German resistance this *may not be agreed to* at the Union level.
7.	*The depth of the recession* in general and the particular difficulties of the British industry *may persuade* the Government to lower interest rates.
8.	Old industries *may* sometimes *transform* and *modernise* themselves in the places where they started. But they often do it somewhere else.
9.	Technological innovations (TI) *may be considered* as the transformation of an idea into a new or improved saleable product or *operational process* .
10.	The massive inflow of Japanese goods into European market *may be seen* , obviously, as the result of a superior productivity and competitiveness.
11.	The challenges to the Fed. next year *may be much tougher* , because of the current recession and the Presidential elections in November.
12.	In considering forecasts for future unemployment *it may not be* worth while looking beyond the present decade.
13.	*It may be easy* to take a protectionist stance for immediate profits.
14.	*It may be* beneficial to ask the question why shipowners in general should like to build ships in Japan in preference to the EU countries.
15.	Since the beginning of the year, there have been indications that these problems *may be lessening* .
16.	Such a trend worries free trade advocators such as Germany and the Netherlands, because it is possible that clouds of protectionism *may be hovering* over the world.
17.	Although Energy Committee would not be empowered to discuss the question of oil prices, which remains the prerogative of OPEC, it seems that security of supplies, as well as energy sharing, and the search for alternative energy sources, *might be* valid subjects for discussion.
18.	The prospect that exports *might be boosted* means that the measures announced on Friday will be scrutinized closely in Europe and the United States.
19.	The aim is to see whether less Government intervention, not more, *might be the way* to revive economic black spots.
20.	This *might be an early and tentative sign* that the falling level *may have been arrested* and some recovery *may ensure* .
21.	This *might have motivated* the government to start supporting R & D projects.
22.	Ford of Germany has still to report in detail but the indications are that it *might* evenhave dropped into the red this year.

2. MUST

Значение глагола must — это долженствование, а также выражение предположения с высокой степенью уверенности. В последнем случае он чаще переводится словами должно быть, по всей вероятности и т.п.

· After a review of the state of national economies in the European Union, the ministers agreed that the fight against inflation must remain the first priority of the member states.

Проанализировав состояние национальной экономики стран-членов Европейского союза, министры пришли к выводу, что по-прежнему борьба с инфляцией должна быть их первоочередной задачей.

· The estimates have not been reported yet but the total cost of research must be about $ 2 million a year.

Оценочные данные пока еще не опубликованы, но общие расходы на эти исследования вероятнее всего составят 2 миллиона долларов в год.

Предложения с перфектной формой инфинитива после must относятся к прошедшему времени.

· It must have been hard for the OPEC countries to cut their production quotas.

По всей вероятности, странам-членам ОПЕК было нелегко пойти на снижение своих квот по производству нефти.

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	Complementary support *must come* from fiscal measures to provide acceptable results.
2.	The aim of the Bundesbank *must be* to increase confidence in the currency through tackling the factor which has most adversely affected the exchange rate — the deterioration of the trade balance.
3.	Projects *must be* commercially *viable* and *must result* in a significant improvement in performance.
4.	Car manufacturers *must be having* a hard time.
5.	South Africa, as a provider of over two thirds of the supply of Western newly-mined gold, *must be considered* first.
6.	Yet it *must* alsobe seen that the money borrowed abroad ostensibly to guarantee jobs at home leaves Austria as quickly as possible and helps to maintain jobs in Germany.
7.	*There must be a strong* possibility that the projects will be merged.
8.	*Thus many economists conclude that in the appliance-television market we have a saturated market with some signs of over-saturation and this must have created some unemployment.*
9.	*Traditional engineering skills and fairly low labor costs compared with those in other European countries must also have weighted heavily.*
10.	The U.S. government spends millions every year policing the economy against agreements among competitors to restrict supply and thereby raise prices. Such conspirators ordinarily *must meet* in darkest secrecy, and *can go* to jail if they get caught. Yet here is the administration pressuring Japanese automakers to do precisely what it ordinarily forbids.
11.	At the present level of population, in order to fuel its industrialization, the Japanese have become doubly dependent: they *must import* both vital raw materials for industrial production and the food they eat.
12.	It *must have been hard* for them to agree to this resolution, but at that time there was no alternative course open to them.
13.	Meanwhile it *must not have escaped* notice that some members (of EU) seem to be contemplating just that sort of un-European behaviour.

3. SHOULD

В функции модального глагола should выражает совет или пожелание и часто переводится: следовало бы, следует, нужно, должен (бы) и т.д.

· He said that the status of Greece in the EU should be viewed in the light of political and economic balance.

Он сказал, что статус Греции в Европейском Союзе следует рассматривать в свете политического и экономического равновесия.

Should может также выражать предположение и переводится на русский язык словами должно быть, вероятно и т.д.

· Experts have estimated that this figure should increase to 11 tonnes next year.

По оценкам специалистов в следующем году этот показатель вероятно вырастет до 11 тонн.

Кроме того, should выполняет эмоционально-усилительную функцию, главным образом в придаточных предложениях, после словосочетаний типа it is important that …, it is odd that …, it is natural that …, и т.д.

Поскольку в русском языке нет подобных грамматических форм, то точность перевода достигается лексическими средствами.

· It is good that the Government should have recognized the opportunity and the obligations so clearly.

Можно только приветствовать, что правительство так ясно осознало представившуюся возможность и свои обязательства.

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	Where the government can, they *should act* to give even more scope for industry and enterprise.
2.	On the other side of the Atlantic, interest rates have peaked and *should begin* to move downwards by the end of the summer.
3.	This *should also help* to strengthen the dollar and reduce its dependence on fluctuations in interest rates.
4.	Given the present yardstick used by the foreign exchange markets to measure a currency's worth, then we *should predict* a marginal strengthening in the U.S. dollar against the major West European currencies.
5.	In the period up to the end of the year the currency *should improve* modestly from its current trade-weighted level and over the next twelve months, as the current account starts to improve and other currencies' relative performances deteriorate, the mark *should improve* its position still further.
6.	The difficulty which a number of commentators who share this view have had is in explaining what *should be done* to edge the exchange rate down.
7.	British industry *should have made* this state of affairs a major philosophy.
8.	The British motor-cycle industry *should have had* a squad in Japan to research the Japanese product philosophy. The agricultural machinery makers *should not have so relied* on their tractor laurels.
9.	The group said that over the medium-term, interest rate policies *should be aimed at* increasing production and at domestic, rather than international considerations.
10.	If the Japanese in a resourceless land area no bigger than California can achieve such a high level of productivity and growth, emulating Japanese methods *should enable* others to achieve similar results, at least in some areas. So the argument goes.
11.	Irrational great leaps forward in economic development *should become* relics of the past as China strives «to disencumber itself from the age-old malady of trying to get quick results», Peking's chief economic planner said in a major policy speech.
12.	This news sums up the impact of inflation and economic crisis, aggravated by policies pursued by successive governments, particularly the present one. *It is* *odd* , therefore, that the Chancellor *should have chosen* yesterday to tell an audience of French government business figures that Britain was «always a politically stable country».
13.	The Premier admitted yesterday that *it was natural* that peopleshould be disturbed at food being thrown away when millions of people were undernourished.
14.	*It can hardly be fortuitous* that the Ministershould have taken the opportunity of the last meeting in Delhi to publicly summarize his plans for the future of the three fighting services.

4. TO BE

Глагол to be с инфинитивом имеет модальное значение. С его помощью часто передается долженствование, обусловленное оговоренными условиями, договоренностью или установлениями. На русский язык обычно переводится словом должен или глаголом в будущем времени.

· The projects for improving productivity are to start by the end of July.

Реализация проектов по повышению производительности труда должна начаться (начнется) до конца июля.

Глагол to be c инфинитивом также выражает возможность (чаще с пассивной формой инфинитива).

· Independence possessed by the Bundesbank is to be envied.

Можно позавидовать той степени независимости, которой обладает Бундесбанк.

Значительные трудности вызывает перевод глагола to be c инфинитивом в условных предложениях , где он означает намерение, желание или цель . На русский язык часто переводится если мы хотим…, если необходимо…, для того, чтобы… и т.д.

· The growth of export is vital if the chronic trade deficit is to be eliminated.

Рост экспорта крайне необходим, если мы хотим ликвидировать хронический дефицит торгового баланса.

Следует помнить и то, что сочетание to be с инфинитивом может быть составным сказуемым . В этом случае оно переводится на русский язык глаголами является, состоит в том, что… и т.д.

· The initial goal is to end the growth of budget deficits and inflation by the end of the year.

Первоначальная цель состоит в том, чтобы до конца года остановить рост дефицита бюджета и инфляции.

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	Regardless of what *is to blame* the reality is that a German economy is weakened, *with* its competitiveness diminished, *and* the currency has declined.
2.	The French government which is backing *the merger* *is to provide* low-interest loans totaling at least 400 million *francs* to finance modernization of the merged plants, authoritative sources said Friday.
3.	The official understanding here is that the Cabinet *was to have discussed* the proposal today and take it up again next Tuesday if no decision on it were reached.
4.	If one administration after another proved unable to deal with its own *household finances* , its incessantly proclaimed top priority, *was* its competence *to be trusted* in the less visible and *comprehensible* matters of defence, strategic arms, diplomacy or finance?
5.	Changes seem inevitable, but no one can say what. But changes *there must be if confidence* in the board *is to be restored* and it *is to function* properly.
6.	The main objective of the conference *is to try* to bridge the *ever-widening* gap between the developing countries and the industrial states.
7.	Pilot schemes for *improving productivity among the stevedores* *are to start* in about a month at six selected freight yards.
8.	Share prices soared on the London Stock Exchange yesterday in the hope that Bank rate *is to be cut* from the present 6,5 per sent to 6 per cent.
9.	Their initial goal *is to end* three years of budget deficits and inflation by the end of this year.
10.	That is essential, *if we are to keep* inflation on a downward trend without continuing increases in unemployment such as that announced earlier today.
11.	*If we are to create* the jobs and wealth the nation so desperately needs, it must be in an environment which is not actively hostile to us, as it has been to an increasing extent since the last war.
12.	The Japanese certainly need a European manufacturing base *if they are to avoid* the EU tariffs.
13.	Expansion of both exports and investments is urgently needed *if economic growth is to continue* at a satisfactory rate.

5. HAVE TO

Глагол to have с инфинитивом означает долженствование, вызванное необходимостью или иными обстоятельствами. Перевод осуществляется при помощи таких слов как: приходится, надо, быть вынужденным и др.

· The merger might fail. In that case the board would have to decide what to do.

Слияние может и не состояться. В этом случае совету директоровпришлось бы решать , что предпринять.

Оборот to have to , обычно со словом yet , может означать отрицание

* I have yet to see a single unemployed becoming suddenly a millionaire.

Я еще не видел ни одного безработного, который вдруг стал бы миллионером.

Оборот have to может также означать достаточность.

· We have only to contrast what has happened to living standards in West Germany and Japan.

Достаточно лишь провести сравнение с тем, как изменился уровень жизни в Западной Германии и Японии.

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	That can only mean one of two things or both. There *will have to be* savage cuts in the real value of unemployment and social security payments. Indeed, the government has already started on that road. There will *also have to be* savage cuts in the real wages of public sector workers. The government's *6 per cent limit* is the first installment of that.
2.	Another poor sign: once a rice exporting country, last year Madagascar *had to import* 170,000 tons.
3.	To meet the export *requirements* the domestic consumption *has had to be curtailed* .
4.	United Nations economists warn that something drastic *has to be done* , or developing countries will be forced to reduce their rate of social and economic expansion.
5.	We *have to live* with the situation and find other means of dealing with the unemployment problem.
6.	The Government *will have to take* further unpopular measures in the not too distant future if it wants to achieve real turnaround with regard to the external and budget deficits.
7.	German economic policy *has had to strike* *a fine balance* between the external and domestic sectors of the economy.
8.	In that context, let me assure you too that I know very well *how strongly* *you feel* about the high interest rates *we are having to endure* in the first phase of our battle against inflation.
9.	Their visits to the manufacturing plants and talks with *off-shore* *oil systems* *suppliers* had created confidence which would be of invaluable importance when decisions *have to be taken* about possible suppliers to the Norwegian off-shore oil supplies industry.

II РАЗДЕЛ

Инфинитив

1. Инфинитив в различных функциях

Инфинитив в различных функциях (определения, дополнения, подлежащего, обстоятельства следствия и цели и т.д.) переводится на русский язык в зависимости от контекста и нюансов его функций определительным придаточным предложением, причастием, прилагательным, существительным с предлогом и т.д .

Делая свой выбор, переводчик безусловно должен исходить из требований контекста, но нижеследующие примеры проиллюстрируют наиболее часто встречающиеся варианты употребления и перевода инфинитива.

* The question will be discussed at the conference shortly to open in London.

Вопрос будет обсуждаться на конференции, которая должна вскоре открыться в Лондоне.

* Our representative was the first to raise this question.

Наш представитель был первым, кто поднял этот вопрос.

* There was nothing to argue about .

Спорить было не о чем.

* The events to come are shown in the latest survey.

Предстоящие события описаны в последнем обзоре.

* The parties to the contract had no objections to make.

У сторон по контракту не было возражений.

* Modern technology is one of the ways to increase productivity.

Внедрение современных технологий — один из способов повысить производительность (повышения производительности).

· They claim to be cutting expenses.

Они утверждают, что (якобы) сокращают расходы.

· The company managed to cut the costs drastically only to find that their products were not competitive any more.

Компании удалось резко сократить издержки, но их продукциявсе равно оказалась неконкурентоспособной.

· The idea of a merger was abandoned never to be discussed again.

От идеи слияния отказались и никогда к ней не возвращались (ее не обсуждали) вновь.

· The talks were bound to fail .

Переговоры были обречены на провал (неизбежно должны были провалиться)

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	The plant *to be built* next to the existing one is to be completed next year, *with* a daily capacity *to convert* 10 tons of *lignite* into 2.5 tons of liquid fuel, or 18 barrels.
2.	The government policies are failing. That is the only conclusion *to be drawn* from the Bank of England quarterly review and the report of the Commons Treasury and Civil Service Committee.
3.	*French finance authorities* announced steps Friday *to bolster* the sagging German mark, which during the last ten days has been a major cause of tension within the European Monetary System.
4.	The council finds no single dominant reason *to account for* the whole range of rising imports.
5.	The said tax increases *to reduce* government borrowing would do little to help *recession hit industry* or reduce unemployment.
6.	If the present administration is ever unwise enoughto adopt quotas on imported cars, it will discover that, among other things, the quotas *set* the industry's wages.
7.	Japanese consumers have simply not been purchasing many of the *high-ticket* items — particularly automobiles and appliances — *in sufficient volume to keep* Japan's economy moving at the higher rate business would like to achieve.
8.	Trade barriers don't save jobs. The dollars that go abroad *to pay* for automobiles eventually come back *to purchase* U.S. goods. These *sales* create more new jobs than can be saved by restrictions on imports.
9.	They say ways and means must be found whereby developing countries can expand their exports and increase foreign exchanges earnings *to pay* for such internal programmes as power projects, transport services, exploration of natural resources and industrialization generally.
10.	The Chancellor, in fact, was quick *to warn* us against raising false hopes on the basis of the new international support given for the pound.
11.	Britons awoke this morning *to face the* prospect of the coldest winter and, hence, the largest energy bills.
12.	Still, Japan's economic success carries inevitable political consequences, and they *are bound to be recognized* sooner or later.

2. Инфинитивные конструкции.

Вышеупомянутая важность контекста верна и для перевода инфинитивных конструкций. Тем не менее обратите внимание на наиболее часто встречающийся перевод следующих конструкций:

( *he)*	*is reported to…*	— передают/сообщают (сообщается), что (он)…; утверждают, что (якобы)…
(" )	*is believed to…*	— полагают/считают, что (он)…
(" )	*is considered to…*	— считают/считается, что…
(" )	*is thought to…*	— считают/думают, что…
(" )	*is understood to…*	— по имеющимся сведениям (он)…; считают/считается, что…; по существующей договоренности/согласно договоренности…
(" )	*is expected to…*	— ожидается/предполагается, что (он)…
(" )	*is estimated to…*	— по оценкам…
(" )	*is alleged to…*	— говорят/считают, что (он) якобы…
(" )	*is heard to…*	— имеются сведения, что (он)…
(" )	*is seen to…*	— считается/рассматривается/рассматривают, что…
(" )	*is felt to…*	— считают, что…
(" )	*seems to…*	— кажется, что…
(" )	*appears to…*	— по-видимому (он)…
(" )	*is likely to…*	— по-видимому/похоже на то, что…; по всей вероятности/вероятно…
(" )	*is unlikely to…*	маловероятно, чтобы…; едва ли/вряд ли…
(" )	*happens (happened) to…*	— случайно (он)…; случилось так, что…
(" )	*is sure (certain) to…*	— (он) обязательно/наверняка/определенно…
(" )	*is forecast to…*	— по прогнозам…

Примечание: После слов likely ( unlikely ), sure , certain действие, выраженное инфинитивом, обычно относится к будущему времени.

· The economic problems facing France are certain to have strong repercussions.

Cтоящие перед Францией экономические трудности наверняка будут иметь серьезные последствия.

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	The company *is expected* to obtain *a full quotation for its shares* on the London Stock Exchange tomorrow.
2.	Discussions *were expected* *to continue* on the subject of growth, inflation and employment.
3.	This was the situation with most of the British exhibitors, the majority of whom displayed expensive, sophisticated machinery of original design and an advanced technical standard for which actual orders *are* rarely *expected* *to be placed* on the spot.
4.	In the first quarter output fell by about 1 per cent but this *is thought* *to be only* a temporary setback and further slow growth *is expected* for the rest of the year.
5.	U.S. officials *were said to consider* that uncertainty *was bound to continue* unless some drastic measures were taken.
6.	A whole range of economic factors *are said* *to influence* the resources.
7.	*Its* overall profitability *is said* *to be below* Philips' international average.
8.	Areas in which the UK engineering industry is especially strong *are said* *to include* power generation, oil projects, consultancy and project management.
9.	In Zurich there was a scramble to buy marks and the Federal Bank in Bonn *was believed to have bought up* to 500 million dollars to prevent the mark going through its official «dollar ceiling».
10.	The Department of Industry *is believed* *to have offered* Philips nearly $ 1 million last year to keep the plant open.
11.	The Bank of England has been examining the applications and *is believed* to *have considered* whether the award of banking licences in London should be matched by concessions for British banks operating in Japan.
12.	Ford *is understood* *to be close* to a decision to establish a car diesel engine manufacturing plant in Britain.
13.	All the leading companies *are understood* *to be anxious* to begin banking operations in London.
14.	Inflation *is forecast* *to fall* to 12 per cent by the end of the year.
15.	It is noteworthy that the Federal and State Parliaments *are considered* *to bear* no responsibility in this matter, probably in part because these institutions are little involved in environmental and energy questions.
16.	Benefits to the balance of payments *are estimated* *to reach* about $ 475 million per annum and the total investment generated will create about 11,500 jobs.
17.	The first effect was that British engineering and construction industries laid off a considerable number of men because the business outlook *appears to be of a no-growth nature* and thus there was no incentive *to invest to expand* .
18.	These increases in the inflow of orders after many months of poor demand *appear to represent* the *turning point* before the general recovery.
19.	Thus the increase in exports *appears to have flattened out* . Shipments to both North America and Europe *appear to have slowed down* .
20.	The long-established inverse link between the gold price and the value of the dollar *appeared to have been* finally *severed* .
21.	Recently these plans *seemed to have assumed* a new reality and *to have become* more aggressive.
22.	Whilst successful innovation *does seem to lead* to higher profits, it is far from clear that higher profits lead to more innovations.
23.	Home demand *seems likely to be* flat through the year after the rise in the first quarter.
24.	Even if the change had to be made slowly, the savings *seem to be* *worth* serious study.
25.	By this Mr. Healey said he meant the relationship between employment and output, which most countries had come to regard as given, *seemed to have gone wrong* in a number of countries, including the UK, in the last year.
26.	The sharp rises in U.S. and Euro-dollar interest rates during March and early April of this year *seem to have perturbed* the Fed.
27.	Furthermore, this favourable balance *is likely to increase* as North Sea Oil increases production.
28.	Nonetheless, one can at least identify some of the factors that *are likely to influence* the firm's activities in relation to industrial innovation.
29.	The time is fast approaching, however, to seek a substantial bank loan and, as the oil boom is gaining momentum, the company *is not likely* to have any difficulty in securing it.
30.	The Prime Minister made clear that he himself was opposed to any direct interference with the level of interest rates in the country as *likely to be «inefficient, inequitable and unworkable»* .
31.	The impact on sterling of this news *is likely to be sustaining* in the short term and depressing in the longer term.
32.	Such a policy *is most unlikely* , of itself, to cure the unemployment situation.
33.	The Bundesbank *is unlikely to* react to political pressure to ease its tight monetary policy in the run up to the election.
34.	In these circumstances the Bundesbank *is unlikely to reduce* current interest rate levels in the immediate future.
35.	Costs have reared up by so much that *it is unlikely* that any new small oil company could start up now in the North Sea.
36.	Because of these difficulties the relative accuracy of the estimates *is likely to have been reduced* in recent years.
37.	The report says that it appears that the building industry *is unlikely to be reformed* from within and that some form of compulsion will be necessary if reasonable standards of construction and finish are to be secured and jerry-building discouraged.

III РАЗДЕЛ

Герундий

1. Герундий в функции обстоятельства

1. В функции обстоятельства герундий всегда употребляется в сочетании с предлогом. Перевод предложений с герундием диктуется контекстом, но наиболее часто встречающиеся предлоги и варианты их перевода предлагаются ниже:

а) После предлогов on ( upon ); after герундий часто переводится деепричастием прошедшего времени или предлогом с существительным; после before и in — обычно придаточным предложением, деепричастием:

· After making the statement the Chancellor said that he was not going to reconsider his decision.

Сделав это заявление, министр финансов сказал, что он не намерен пересматривать свое решение.

· In trying to devise ways to improve the efficiency of production the company managers displayed real ingenuity.

Когда менеджеры компании пытались найти способы повышения эффективности производства, они проявили подлинную изобретательность (Пытаясь найти …)

· On arriving the Prime Minister announced he managed to secure new international loans.

По прибытии премьер-министр сообщил, что ему удалось добиться получения новых международных займов.

б) Аналогичным образом контекст определяет выбор средства перевода (инфинитив, придаточное предложение, деепричастие или сочетание предлога с существительным) герундия со следующими предлогами:

*besides*	— кроме того, что
*instead of*	— вместо того, чтобы
*apart from*	— кроме , не говоря уже
*in case of, in the event of*	— в случае если
*subject to*	— при условии
*by, in*	— путем, при помощи
*owing to*	— из-за, вследствие
*for fear of*	— из опасения
*without*	без, без того чтобы

Примечание:

Предлог without часто также переводится отрицательной формой деепричастия.

· They promised not to undertake any actions without consulting their partners.

Они пообещали не предпринимать никаких действий, не согласовав их со своими партнерами.

2. Герундий в функции определения, дополнения, подлежащего и составного сказуемого

Герундий в функции определения, дополнения, подлежащего и составного сказуемого не вызывает особых трудностей при переводе.

· The Foreign Secretary has been insisting on the importance of negotiating on limited practical questions.

Министр иностранных дел все время настаивает на необходимости ведения переговоров по ограниченному кругу практических вопросов.

· The Prime Minister avoided mentioning it for fear of being criticized .

Премьер-министр избегал упоминания об этом из опасения, что его подвергнут критике .

· Solving Britain's economic difficulties, said the Prime Minister, is a question not so much of political doctrine as practical judgement.

Разрешение экономических трудностей Великобритании, сказал премьер-министр, это вопрос не столько политической доктрины, сколько практической целесообразности.

Примечание .

а) Сочетание there is no c герундием часто переводится безличным предложением.

· There is no denying that future growth of inflation may be averted by this move.

Нельзя отрицать , что этот шаг может помочь избежать дальнейшего роста инфляции.

б) После выражения far from герундий переводится: не только не…; но…; вместо того чтобы (+инфинитив)…; отнюдь не (+деепричастие)…

· Far from averting the threat of inflation, this surrender will only bring about still tougher action later.

Отнюдь не устраняя самой угрозы инфляции, эта уступка (это отступление) лишь приведет к еще более жестким мерам в будущем.

3. Герундиальный комплекс

Герундиальный комплекс (сочетание герундия с существительными, притяжательными и личными местоимениями или группой слов) часто переводится с помощью вводных слов: то, что…; тот факт, что…; (с тем) чтобы…; после того как…; что… и др.

We look forward to much attention being given to this question.

Мы рассчитываем на то, что этомувопросу будет уделено большое внимание .

Примечание. Часто подобные формы герундиального комплекса путают с причастием, что ведет к искажению смысла. Только контекстуальный анализ поможет сделать верный выбор.

· Jobs and living standards depend on the industrial capacity of the nation being used to the full.

Занятость и уровень жизни зависят от того, насколько полно используются производственные мощности страны .

Если предположить, что being used является причастием в функции определения, то следовало бы перевести это предложение следующим образом: "…зависят от производственных мощностей страны, которые сейчас используются в полном объеме", что, очевидно, лишено смысла.

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	The Belgium Prime Minister offered his resignation to the King in Brussels yesterday *after failing* to reconcile a Cabinet split over tough new economic measures.
2.	*In proclaiming* its economic plan this autumn, the Government must convince the country that it has the will and the means to redeploy labour efficiently if industry will cooperate.
3.	Mr. N. in a comment last night said the Government was making «a grave mistake *in not taking* the opportunity *of explaining* their economic policy to the country and *submitting* *it to public criticism and comment* ».
4.	Britain put itself *firmly at odds* with the rest of the European Union Tuesday *by blocking* fishing agreements with third countries.
5.	The economists argued that «there is no basis in economic theory or supporting evidence for the government's belief that *by deflating* demand it will bring inflation permanently under control and thereby induce an automatic recovery in output and employment».
6.	Neither the federal government nor the nation as a whole needs to be reminded of the necessity of *saving and conserving energy* , especially *by finding* substitutes for oil. *The message has been forcefully driven* home by declining deliveries from Iran and Iraq.
7.	*By not losing* *sight* of the long-term objectives they made themselves masters and not servants or victims of economic forces operating in the world.
8.	White House official said in advance the President had decided for now to *encourage* Japan to limit exports on its own, but planned no specific request. Both sides said they hope to settle the issue *without resorting* to «protectionism».
9.	They argue that the oil incomes of such countries as Saudi Arabia, which is likely to earn more than $ 120 billion this year, are already far in excess of what they can channel into their economies *without risking* more inflation and *without aggravating* the social tensions resulting from modernization.
10.	They had established it *without waiting* for an international treaty to be concluded.
11.	The three-point program, *instead of preventing* decentralization of Canada, *instead of being* a means of uniting the country, was dividing it.
12.	Mexico City — After years *of taking* Latin America for granted, the United States is now finding that much of the region no longer shares its view of the world.
13.	The American program provided for a number of alternative sources of synthetic fuels, including not only coal-to-oil processes, but ways *of converting* coal to gas as well as *extracting* liquid fuel from oil shale.
14.	Oil companies are barred by agreement with the government *from making* any public statements of their revenues or the amount of oil they are exporting.
15.	There are countries who would be ready to sign agreements with the developing nations *for training* some of *their people* over the next five, ten years.
16.	It is nonsense for its supporters to claim that the present policy is a success. It has succeeded *in increasing* the number of out of work, and *in reducing* production.
17.	But his scenario lies far beyond *the limits of any past experience* in the United States or any other industrial country. *Getting* inflation down is necessary, but it is *harmful for politicians* to suggest that it will be *costless* .
18.	*Far from doing* anything to reduce the number of jobless, the Government is planning to throw more out of work with its rail and *pit* closures.
19.	The drive toward monopoly in the British Press is no different in essence from the same development in all other major industries. *Far from hindering* this development in all other major industries, the Government is actually encouraging it.
20.	Foreign exchange analysts, despite all the fanfare and pep talk *about the United States reasserting* its leading role as a bastion of free enterprise, remain extremely skeptical that the dollar's strength can be sustained without the support of high interest rates.
21.	«There is no question therefore *of the door being firmly closed* against any increase of pay for civil services before July 1 next», he declared.
22.	In and outside Parliament, using all means at their disposal, they intend to organize their considerable resources in an effort to preventthe dominant sector of the industry becoming State-owned.
23.	It is not the critics of the Minister of Economy who are *cynical* . That is a word which could be more accurately applied to a Minister who says he is for *prices being kept down* , and then supports a Budget which puts them up.
24.	They gathered to discuss the *injustices* of foreign trade as they affect the chances of *the poor countries ever becoming* less poor.
25.	*The whole system was nothing but an alarm system designed to* go off in case of *raw materials being illegally removed or utilized* .

IV РАЗДЕЛ

Причастие

1. Причастие в различных функциях

Причастие в различных функциях (определения, обстоятельства и т.д.) чаще переводится причастием настоящего и прошедшего времени, деепричастием или придаточным предложением в зависимости от контекста.

· The committee passed the resolution calling for free trade policies.

Комитет принял резолюцию, призывающую к проведению политики свободной торговли.

· The data obtained are being carefully analyzed and studied.

Полученные данные (данные, которые были получены ) тщательно анализируются и изучаются.

· Commenting last night on the deficit reduction program he stressed the necessity of cutting expenses.

Выступая вчера вечером с комментарием по поводу программы уменьшения дефицита бюджета, он подчеркнул необходимость сокращения расходов.

· Asked to comment on the plan he replied…

Когда его попросили высказаться по поводу этого плана, он ответил…

· The central bank, though forced to give way on some matters, will stick to the tough financial policy.

Центральный банк,которому хотя и пришлось пойти на уступки по некоторым вопросам, по-прежнему будет придерживаться жесткой финансовой политики.

· Imports from the U.S. declined about 14 per cent in value. Considering the increase in import prices the volume decrease was much greater.

Импорт из США сократился примерно на 14% в стоимостном выражении. Если учесть рост импортных цен, то очевидно снижение товарного объема импорта было еще большим.

Примечание. Стилистика русского языка не всегда допускает перевод с помощью причастий сочетаний существительного с причастием, столь распространенных в английском языке. Например, сочетания the letter stating (saying , writing и т.п.) чаще переводятся: письмо, в котором утверждается (говорится, требуется и т.п.).

2. Причастные конструкции

Причастные конструкции «имя + причастие» переводятся чаще придаточным предложением с союзами что, как или чтобы. Конструкция типа " have / get + имя + причастие" не имеет аналога в русском языке, представляя существенную трудность для перевода. Поэтому ее конкретное оформление при переводе зависит от контекста.

· The free traders want protectionism and trade barriers banned .

Сторонники свободной торговли хотят, чтобы протекционизм и торговые барьеры были запрещены .

· We must treat this as a national emergency issue and must get this decision reversed .

Мы должны рассматривать это как вопрос чрезвычайной важности для страны и должны добиваться, чтобы данное решение было пересмотрено .

Конструкция с причастием barred может иметь значение исключения какого-либо условия и переводится при помощи если не.... Это же причастие может иметь форму barring , но оно в этом случае стоит в начале причастной конструкции.

* Unforeseen circumstances barred , the currency will remain stable. (Ср.: Barring the unforeseen circumstances, the currency will remain stable.)

Валюта останется стабильной, если не возникнут непредвиденные обстоятельства.

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	This means examining not only the likely course of events within these countries and in the developing world but also the interactions between the two, the aim being to assess the importance of structural changes which will affect the economy of the world as a whole.
2.	The new service is being introduced because there is a growing amount of *European freight being directed* to the Middle East through Italian ports.
3.	Mr. Maclennan replied that the wholesale output index had increased by 20,75 per cent year-on-year since May, *showing no change* since April.
4.	At that time I noticed various *policies being developed and implemented* at the nation level.
5.	*Noting the price* inflation curve, we see *this* rising very sharply during the year (to 16.1 per cent) and reaching a peak in June (at 26.5 per cent).
6.	A grim new year of record-high unemployment, slow growth and *unnervingly* high inflation *stretching* into the next year *is in store* for the major industrialized countries, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development reports.
7.	Canadians have a government *committed* to free trade, no tariffs on U.S. imports, which means the U.S. companies are free to treat Canada *as open season* and Canada companies are free to compete. Some competition, some freedom!
8.	In another test of strength which is putting strain on the community, France and West Germany have refused *to make payments* *called for* by the European Parliament to finance social and regional projects in *poorer areas* . This has caused sharp resentment in Italy and Greece.
9.	*Barring* further sharp increases in the price of crude oil — a development which seems highly unlikely in the short run — there is room to believe that the Japanese economy will soon emerge from its current doldrums.
10.	All three governments, *pleading* national budget austerity, have refused to permit any rise in over-all EU spending above a *controversial* financial ceiling.
11.	The Chrysler Corporation tentatively won a loan guarantee of another $400 million from the Federal government, *bringing* to $ 1.2 billion the amount of funds given to the auto maker.
12.	*Considering* the complexity of the problem, the decision was reached at a rather early date.
13.	*Coupled with* his reluctance to discuss this question this presents a major obstacle to any kind of agreement.
14.	Decisions have been taken at Brussels, which, *if carried out* , would lead straight to further controversies.
15.	President said in a message accompanying the document that it «will stop runaway inflation and revitalize the economy *if given a chance* ». He asked Congress *to join him in a quest* to «move America back toward economic sanity».
16.	During the work-to-rule campaign many saw *their efforts wasted* because some were induced to work extra hours.
17.	Over the controversial draft treaty, harmony is to be expected — and a powerful attempt *to get it signed* by many nations.
18.	The cargo was badly damaged by the fire, *the owners suffering great losses* .

3. Абсолютная причастная конструкция с предлогом with

Отдельно следует остановиться на особенностях абсолютной причастной конструкции с предлогом with , который в этих случаях на русский язык не переводится. Вариант перевода будет зависеть от контекста.

· With the prices going higher andwages frozen it is becoming increasingly difficult for the British home market to maintain stability.

Так как (поскольку) цены продолжают расти , азаработная плата заморожена , становится все труднее сохранять стабильность на внутреннем рынке Великобритании.

Примечание. Причастие being в данной конструкции часто опускается.

· With unemployment now a crisis issue… = With unemployment being now a crisis issue…

Теперь, когда вопрос о безработице стоит очень остро…

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	*With Phillips now having more than 15 production* *centres* *in Britain* , it seems unlikely that the British operation will go *unscathed* .
2.	*With United Kingdom wage levels rising* , the costs of production in Britain are now only marginally less than on the Continent.
3.	*With imports continuing to rise* , the *crude trade* deficit of $ 82 million in the first quarter was nearly at the level of a year previously, which was the worst deficit ever recorded.
4.	It was virtually the end of the four-year transitional period since the UK joined the EEC in 1973 and, *with the disappearance of customs on industrial goods traded at that time between the EEC and all the EFTA countries* , the world's biggest tariff-free area had come finally into existence.
5.	In the three months to May import volume fell by 2 1/2 per cent and, *with sluggish home demand expected* , may not rise much in the reminder of the year.
6.	*With more money about* , we tend to make an undue demand upon our own domestic products instead of exporting them, therefore creating a balance of payments problem.
7.	*With Britain gripped by recession and 2.5 million unemployed* , *intense competition for jobs tends to* leave black youths behind.
8.	*With U.S. exports still limited* by congestion in ports, it is possible that South Africa could become the leading supplier to Europe when it completes the current phase of expansion of its automated and computerized Indian Ocean coal port, Richards Bay.
9.	*With domestic demand slack* , the Japanese economy has had to depend on exports for much of its growth — particularly of such high-priced items as automobiles, which now provide 17 per cent of the country's total exports.
10.	This year, *with the threat of protectionist action in Europe and the United States in the background* , auto-makers are showing restraint in their shipments to familiar overseas customers.
11.	*With sales of automobiles of the domestic market sagging, and many dealers in deficit* , the pressure to export autos last year was acute.
12.	*With* theirprofits siphoned off by the central government bonds, some production units will undoubtedly have to curtail expansion plans, profit-sharing and other incentives to workers.
13.	*With West German industry pressing* for lower interest rates to stimulate investment, the Bundesbank's capacity to defend the mark by hiking rates is extremely limited.
14.	*With the Government doing its utmost* to keep wages down, and *with price increases* due to the EU membership coming on top of price increases arising from Government policy, the standard of living in this country would be given an extremely serious setback.
15.	Through the first nine months, Japanese shipyards reportedly won more than 80 per cent of all export ship orders *handled* within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), *with the 12-nation Association of Western European Shipbuilders (AWES) taking the remainder* .
16.	«Statistics Canada» announced another rise in the cost of living *with food prices leading the way.*
17.	As there is a natural limit to the capacity of consumption of necessities of life (food, etc.), particular attention must be paid to industrialization, *with consumption prospects in this sphere being particularly unlimited* for a long time to come.
18.	This is in essence a Honda car — the Ballade — built under licence in Britain *with Honda supplying key components.*
19.	Export demand has been buoyant, *with high quality products particularly* *benefiting from the devaluation of the pound* .
20.	Tens of thousands of interesting British patents are on display in the British Patents Office but the vast majority have been abandoned due to a combination of high patent costs and astronomically high model costs, perhaps *with the inventor going bankrupt in the process.*
21.	The agreement marks a major extension of the collaboration between the two companies, which began *with the car launched in Britain last year.*

4. Причастие в функции союзов и предлогов

Некоторые причастия в функции союзов и предлогов переводятся чаще на русский язык следующим образом:

*provided, granted (granting)*	— при условии, принимая во внимание
*supposing, assuming*	— если, допустим, предположим что
*seeing*	— поскольку, принимая во внимание, учитывая, ввиду того что
*given*	— при наличии, если учесть
*failing*	— при отсутствии
*regarding, respecting*	— относительно
*pending*	— до, в ожидании
*following*	— вслед за
*considering*	— учитывая

· Given good will on the part of other partners the project could be carried out without any further delay.

При наличии доброй воли со стороны других партнеров этот проект мог бы быть осуществлен без дальнейшего промедления.

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	*Given* the well-known complexities of the Japanese distribution system, the second part of this arrangement is particularly important.
2.	*Given* the highly capital intensive nature of such a project, new technologies are brought to the greatest number of people only when labour intensive projects and business are encouraged.
3.	*Given* a British expanding market the average increase in productive efficiency is 3 per cent a year.
4.	*Given* the output achieved in the first four months and the outlook for the UK economy published in the Financial Statement and Budget Report it seems unlikely that chemicals output will rise by as much as 5 per cent.
5.	These tremendous, complex tasks can be carried out *given* planned development of the national economy and correct leadership of the national economic development.
6.	If Saudi Arabia decides to maintain its production at the current level, the highest prices are almost equally certain to continue to decline, *given* the state of the market.
7.	Foreign-owned companies that set up British subsidiaries to channel their profit pay no tax *provided* their management and control remain outside.
8.	Objections to this plan, *supposing* there is any, should be reported to the committee at once.
9.	*Assuming* the hearty cooperation of all the members, it is reasonable to expect that the project will be successful.
10.	Prospects are bright for a big expansion of trade between these two countries, *following* the signing of a new three-year trade agreement.
11.	*Failing* agreement by the United States to steps of this kind, serious consideration should be given to the possibilities of Western Europe to maintain high levels of output and trade in the international economy outside the United States.
12.	*Pending* the reopening of negotiations and *fearing* the abrogation of some privileges the State Council adopted certain measures.
13.	America's Secretary of State headed a U.S. Government delegation which has arrived in Tokyo for talks on trade matters. The delegation left in a convoy of 36 cars for a mountain resort, *pending* the opening of the talks tomorrow.
14.	The decision this month, according to the sources, was to postpone any such changes, *pending* a large policy review *regarding* relations with China and Taiwan.
15.	And it is argued that the risk that Britain runs in exposing her hand, though not to be discounted, is well worth taking, *considering* the importance to British industry of the negotiations as a whole.

V РАЗДЕЛ

Страдательный залог (пассив)

Перевод предложений со сказуемым в страдательном залоге представляет значительную трудность по ряду причин:

1. Целый ряд глаголов, которые в английском языке образуют пассивную форму, не употребляются в страдательном залоге в русском языке. Например, глаголы to arrive at, to call upon, to deal with, to enter into, to refer to, to report on, to dictate to, to tell (smth), to give (smth) to.

· The Council was told that…

Совету сообщили , что…

2. Переходному английскому глаголу может соответствовать непереходный глагол в русском языке. Например, to affect (воздействовать на), to attend (присутствовать на), to follow (следовать за), to influence (влиять на), to join (присоединяться к), to need (нуждаться в) и др.

· The oil prices were affected by the shortage on the market.

Сокращение предложения на рынкесказалось на уровне цен на нефть.

3. В английском языке фразеологические сочетания могут употребляться в пассиве, в то время как при переводе на русский язык страдательный залог меняется на действительный. Например, to make use of, to pay attention to, to take notice of и др.

· This statement should be looked at in the new light.

Это заявление следует рассматривать в новом свете.

4. В русском языке страдательный залог не имеет такого широкого употребления, как в английском, и его часто заменяют действительным по стилистическим соображениям или для того, чтобы правильно определить смысловой акцент.

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	Small industries *are actively encouraged* in a number of ways. Firstly they are largely exempt from tax.
2.	The opportunities that North Sea oil provided in the 1980s *were stressed* .
3.	Under both the American and British systems of finance for small business the entrepreneur *is required* to furnish the original *seed* capital and prove he can run a business.
4.	No one doubts that innovations in planning and technology *are required* .
5.	From the meeting came a general feeling that, providing the best use *was made* of resources, a substantial increase *in market shares* , both in foreign and domestic markets, *could be achieved* .
6.	More recently doubts *have been expressed* as to whether the planning towards heavy industrialization has really benefited many of the people in developing countries.
7.	Research as a tool of sound economic policy *has not been given* adequate attention.
8.	When governments or bankers think of technological transfer, especially from developed to developing countries, they *are at first attracted by modern economies of* scale.
9.	This *should be followed by satisfactory financial support* for the approved research projects.
10.	A change of course in the government's economic strategy *was hinted at* last night in Leader of the House's first major speech in his new job as chief Tory propagandist.
11.	The whole EU budget *is also being argued about* . Both Britain and West Germany want to cut farm spending, while France wants a big increase in prices for its farmers.
12.	The president's tax and budget proposals, which amount to a massive redistribution from the poor to the prosperous, *have been defended* on the grounds that they are necessary to end inflation. Complaints that the program is unjust *are rebuffed* with assurances that an unfettered economy is the best welfare program.
13.	One day the world will learn of the intrigues and provocations *that were resorted to* in pushing the country into this suicidal policy.
14.	The preeminence given to military industry and technology over the last three decades, has had a delayed but serious impact upon the civilian industrial economy. In stark contrast to the enormous sums allotted over the years to military technology, civilian technology *has been starved* for capital and thus for talent.
15.	The construction industry employs more workers than any other production industry — 1.7 million people — and, once again, it is the worst *hit* by government economic mismanagement.
16.	Chrysler workers have already suffered many severe hardships — the closing of Dodge Main and other plants, massive layoffs, and other cuts in pay. Now workers *are asked* to pay more to keep their jobs — without guarantees, although the bankers have Washington's guarantees of payment.
17.	Detroit is a city with a Black majority population. Like many other industrial Midwest towns, it *has been hard-hit* by the economic crisis. Youth unemployment in Detroit is even higher than in most other U.S. cities.
18.	Wall Street executives said they *were heartened* by the plan to reduce government borrowing and the resulting prospect of more business for their firms.
19.	The new powers of the Government on wages are as totally unacceptable to the trade union movement of this country as the old ones. They *must be resisted,* anddefeated .

VI РАЗДЕЛ

Оборот it is (was)… who (that, when и т.д.)

Данная эмфатическая конструкция с it служит для выделения различных членов предложения (кроме сказуемого), т.е. несет эмоционально-усилительную функцию. Тот член предложения, который необходимо выделить ставят после оборота it is ( was ) , а потом ставят соответствующее относительное местоимение ( who , whom , that и т.п.) или союз (when , where ). Аналогично можно выделить и целое придаточное предложение.

При переводе, опираясь на контекст, используют те средства русского языка, которые наилучшим образом передают эту эмфазу (например, словами именно, это и др.; изменением порядка слов и т.п.). Сочетание it is ( was ) not till ( until ) чаще переводятся: только после, только когда, только в такой-то момент .

· It is for that reason that the Fed.'s decision is both timely and appropriate.

Именно по этой причине решение Федеральной резервной системы своевременно и целесообразно.

· For it was Britain's role in the European Union which was at the heart of discussion…

Поскольку в центре обсуждения как раз и стоял вопрос о роли Великобритании в Европейском союзе, то… .

· It is not until full delivery that the goods will be paid for.

Товары будут оплачены только при полной поставке.

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	Strangely enough *it is official policies* designed for the common good *that* so often work against adopting appropriate technology.
2.	*It is through small* business in the general case *that* ideas of Western technology and economic organization make their impact on the ordinary people.
3.	*It is, however, the rising* and practically irresistible tide of international migration *that* poses a new, unprecedented challenge to the trade union leadership in the developed countries.
4.	*It is because of* this single main qualitative difference *that* independent businesses are so much more efficient than the large organizations whether state-owned or public companies.
5.	*Is it Governments alone that* are responsible for 20 years of relative decline?
6.	And *it is* the government's aim to encourage investment *that* will best complement Britain's industrial infrastructure.
7.	*It won't be until* the end of the congressional session, 10 months from now, *that* the United States will know what actually can be cut from the budget — and at whose expense.
8.	*It was* at this time *that* major money center banks from New York to Hong Kong accepted, perhaps unwittingly, the responsibility of recycling the world's excess liquidity.
9.	*It is not until* June 5that the Bill will be published.
10.	But because of government controls on the domestic price, *it is* in the export field *that* the coal divisions of the leading mining houses harvest the profits that have made them star performers in recent years.
11.	And yet, on the face of things at least, *it is* just this issue *that* is at present in the centre of financial controversy in the United States and Germany.
12.	Britain is looking for expansion, more «growth», but *it is only tiny businesses* , «seeds», *which* have the required expansion potential.
13.	*It is this licensing* of technology *which* makes the agreement particularly significant is terms of the Anglo-Japanese collaboration on high technology being encouraged by the two Governments.
14.	But we all know that *it is capital which* is creative for the future.
15.	*It is precisely this potential, which* no other sector has, *which* has so fired the imagination of politicians.
16.	*It is the Bolton Committee which* spotlighted the importance of the independence of the independent and small businesses to the economic prosperity of the nation.
17.	Although *it was* *Germany* *which* had led a financial rescue operation earlier in the year, it *was* , ironically, *the relationship with Germany which* had probably done more to undermine Turkey's economic stability than any other single factor.
18.	The share of imports in Britain's consumption of manufactured and semi-manufactured goods increased greatly over the past ten years.It was *this growth which* alarmed the Government and business last year when the expansion of imports had a severe effect on the balance of payment.
19.	Although the United States invented the transistor *it was Japan who* was first to flood the world market with pocket transistor radios.
20.	It is true America invented the modern document copier but *it is now* *the* *Japanese* *who* are making the US situation in Britain uncomfortable.

VII РАЗДЕЛ

Служебные слова

1. SINCE

В качестве союза since переводится на русский язык: поскольку, так как; с тех пор как, после этого (того). В качестве предлога since переводится: с, со времени и т.п.

· International agreements on prices have scarcely modified the situation since prices are always dictated by big industrial powers.

Международные соглашения по ценам вряд ли меняют ситуацию, поскольку цены всегда диктуются крупными промышленными странами.

· Since 1945 immense changes have occurred…

С 1945 года произошли огромные изменения…

2. WHILE

В качестве союза while переводится: в то время как, пока; хотя, тогда как; несмотря на то, что; и, а .

Союз while в сочетании с причастием обычно не переводится, а сама конструкция обычно переводится деепричастным оборотом.

· While planning the future…

Планируя будущее …

· The stock market indexes went up in London, while in Tokyo there were no hikes.

Индексы на Лондонской фондовой бирже выросли, в то время как в Токио не наблюдалось никакого роста.

3. FOR

В качестве союза for переводится на русский язык: ибо, так как, потому что, ведь .

· They insist on controlling inflation, for it drives up prices.

Они настаивают на мерах по сдерживанию (сокращению) инфляции, так как она ведет к росту цен.

В качестве предлога for переводится: за, по; для; в течение; из-за; на, к; от, против (болезни); за, вместо и т.д.

Наиболее часто встречающиеся сочетания с предлогом for:

*for all*	— несмотря на, вопреки, чтобы… не…
*for one*	— со своей стороны
*for one thing*	— во-первых, прежде всего
*for that matter*	— и все же; в сущности; что касается этого; несмотря на все и т.п.

Как уже не раз отмечалось, выбор варианта перевода будет диктовать контекст.

4. BUT

В качестве предлога but переводится: кроме, за исключением. Anything but — далеко не; все что угодно, только не; ( for , to ) all but — (для) всех, кроме.

В качестве союза but переводится: но, а, и, однако, тем не менее; если не, как не, чтобы не; but for -если бы не .

В качестве наречия but — только, лишь; all but — почти, едва ли…

· The Minister said that they had no choicebut to cut interest rates.

Министр заявил, что у них не было иного выбора, кроме как снизить ссудный процент.

5. ONCE

В качестве союза once переводится: как только, коль скоро .

В качестве наречия once переводится: один раз, однажды, когда-то, некогда .

· In most Latin American countries once boundless reliance on the US dollar is crumbling.

В большинстве латиноамериканских стран разрушается когда-то (некогда) безграничная зависимость от доллара США.

6. WELL

Слово well переводится в зависимости от того, с какой частью речи оно сочетается.

После глагола и перед причастием ( II ) well переводится: хорошо, вполне .

· The plan, ifwell designed , will…

План, если он хорошо разработан , будет…

После модального глагола (перед основным) well переводится: вполне .

· This workmay well be done next week.

Эта работа вполне может быть сделана на следующей неделе.

В сочетании с наречием или союзом well переводится: значительно, очень, довольно; well after — значительно позже; well before — задолго до; as well -также; as well as -так же как, как…, так и… .

· Demand was well down in the first half of the year.

Спрос значительно снизился в первой половине года.

7. AS

Союз as комбинирует в себе обстоятельства причины и времени. Поэтому при переводе могут использоваться союзные слова: когда, в то время как, по мере того как; так как; как. Если преобладание того или иного элемента не усматривается, можно воспользоваться словами: в условиях, когда.

Иногда после прилагательного в случае инверсии союз as переводится: хотя, как ни .

· As the globalization grows stranger…

По мере того как процессы глобализации набирают силу…

· Strong as the US dollar was, it…

Как ни устойчив (высок) был курс доллара США, он…

В качестве наречия as переводится: как, как например, настолько .

Обратите внимание на перевод следующих сочетаний:

*as…as*	— так же…как; такой же…как; не далее как
*as to (for)*	— что касается
*as if*	— как если бы; как будто
*so as*	— (с тем) чтобы; так (настолько) чтобы
*as it is*	— (в начале предложения) как бы то ни было, в действительности, можно сказать; (в конце предложения) уже и так, без того
*as it were*	— как бы то ни было
*as it happens*	— между прочим; оказывается
*as a matter of fact*	— фактически, в действительности
*as a whole*	— в целом

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	This relative improvement may, however, prove illusory, *since* there had already been a pressure on dollar reserve.
2.	*Since* developments in the oil-refining and chemical industry processes are so closely intertwined, we now turn to consideration of some refinery process innovations.
3.	*Since* our population is only increasing by the average annum rate of 0.1 per cent over the next 10 years then almost the whole of the 2 1/2 per cent annual increase in home food production goes towards self-sufficiency.
4.	However, if the Japanese were to manufacture in (say) Germany then that would be distinctly to British disadvantage, *since* any exports into Britain represent so many jobs lost in Britain car-making and we are at a disadvantage as to trade balance.
5.	But the actual situation is more adverse *since* Britain had surplus production capacity.
6.	*Since* this economic policy hasn't been tried before, and *since* it isn't based on any economic model, and *since* the assumptions on which the administration's forecasts are based were revised to provide the desired results the scepticism is not entirely unjustified.
7.	Latin America has changed dramatically *since* the 1960s when it accepted Washington's political leadership much more readily. Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Venezuela, in particular, have emerged as regional powers with their own spheres of influence.
8.	Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings permit a company to remain in control under court supervision. They also provide for court protection against lawsuits by creditors *while* the company attempts to work out a plan to pay bills.
9.	A high-ranking Transport Ministry official recently stated that *while* Japan is sympathetic to the plight of European shipbuilders, it is unlikely that the Japanese shipbuilding industry will be able to make further concessions on the matter.
10.	With the population growth will come a tremendous increase in transport on the roads and the council estimates that *while* in 14 years time there will be one additional person for every six now — the number of vehicles will have almost doubled.
11.	*While* pressing for every kind of financial help to the local authorities, it is evident that only nationalization of all urban land is an essential need.
12.	Also the Department of Employment figures are mid-year estimates *while* the R & D figures relate to the end of the year.
13.	Between July and August, the index had moved up by 0.3 points, *while* the previous monthly period saw a 1 point advance.
14.	Tokyo — When is an economic slump not a slump? The answer: When the economy in question is Japan's. *For* what Japanese economic and business leaders are all too ready to define as a «slump» or «slowdown» would be considered a rosy picture in virtually any other industrial country of the West.
15.	This sterling scare is a particularly outrageous one. *For* the present run on the pound was not started by foreign bankers or speculators, but by the Bank of England itself.
16.	Washington — As the new administration takes over, U.S. policy toward Latin America and the developing world has already begun a swing to the right.
17.	*As recently as* early March of this year, Mr. E. Rebuffed one of his top subordinates who strongly urged the Prime Minister to point out to American officials that a lot of their balance-of-payment troubles were of their own making.
18.	Portland, Ore. — As the grisly toll of plant closures and mill shutdowns inexorably mounts, workers across the U.S. are getting very angry.
19.	But under U.S. trade law, imports can be restricted only if the International Trade Commission (ITC) finds them to be as big a factoras any other in causing the industry-wide malaise. The commission did not.
20.	The full effect on trade of rising costs caused by high wage settlements and a rising exchange rate has yet to be felt in Britain, the bank said. Company profitability in the first six months was the worst recorded and real unemployment is growing twice as fast as official jobless statistics show.
21.	Several distinguished economists testifying on Capitol Hill have cast doubts on the administration's predictions. L.K., the Nobel Prize winner, says, «The outlook is not as rosy, as far as growth is concerned, as far as inflation is concerned and as far as the balanced budget is concerned».
22.	The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is campaigning to change its international image as a ruthless cartel that is raking in billions of dollars and strangling the economies of both rich and poor countries.
23.	Prices on the New York Stock Exchange retreated Thursday in moderate trading as investors continued to take profits in the oils.
24.	Mr. B. was quoted as saying that cooperation between the two nations would serve their common interests.
25.	«What the president is asking,» the memo charges, «is that Congress and the nation risk everything on one roll of the dice — a mystic combination of tax cuts and spending cuts that are supposed to rout inflation, low productivity, etc. — as the morning sun dissipates the evil vapors of the night.»
26.	The private-sector agreement limits pay raises to the inflation index, now 7 per cent *for* *all but* the lowest paid and commits unions to making no further claims while it lasts.
27.	Never have management and labor in West Germany been so far apart in their positions at the start of wage negotiations. And what has been happening in the steel and metal working industries is *but* a taste of the bitter struggle over wages that will take place in other branches where current contracts expire later this spring.
28.	The Bank of England issued orders to banks late Thursday night to limit their advances to *all* *but* exporters.
29.	Despite a «difficult year» last year, bank increased its net profits by 24 per cent and shareholders would have been given a bigger increase than that recently announced *but for* the Government's restraint rules.
30.	*Once* formal entry has been completed, another question in the negotiations is the length of the transitional period after formal entry.
31.	*Once* that was done then the rest was simply a question of time.
32.	*Once* the exchange rate begins to fall the price of imports is bound to rise.
33.	How is it that Britain, *once* the world's greatest industrial power, now faces this stark choice?
34.	*Once* the institutional and international agreements are worked out, it is likely that mining on the outer continental shelf and in the deep ocean, still in its early stages, will be rapidly growing world-wide industry.

VIII РАЗДЕЛ

Артикль

Часто артикли в английском языке кроме своей грамматической функции несут и смысловую нагрузку . Поскольку в русском языке нет такого грамматического явления как артикль, переводчик должен использовать лексические и синтаксические средства русского языка, опираясь на контекст.

1. Определенный артикль , несущий смысловую нагрузку, часто переводится: текущий, нынешний, настоящий, действующий, тот, тот самый, этот, всё (все) и т.п.

· Pirelli had agreed to compensate the shareholders if no merger was agreed by the end of November.

Фирма Пирелли согласилась выплатить компенсацию держателям ее акций (своим акционерам) в случае, если до конца ноября не будет достигнута договоренность о слиянии.

Часто при переводе существительных с определенным артиклем необходимы соответствующие фоновые знания, которые помогут дать контекстуально правильный перевод. Например, если в предложении употреблено слово the Depression , придется прибегнуть к лексической развертке и перевести это какВеликая депрессия .

2. Неопределенный артикль , несущий смысловую функцию, часто переводится: один из, один, некий, какой-либо, новый, такой, известный, определенный, любой и др.

Как и в случае с определенным артиклем только контекст поможет выбрать верный вариант.

· The Administration is miffed. Despite a strong economy,the president is low in the polls.

Администрации США (Правительству США) нечему радоваться. Несмотря на такой устойчивый (сильный) экономический подъем, рейтинг президента Клинтона невысок[1] .

Наличие или отсутствие неопределенного артикля может изменить значение слова. Например, a power - держава, power — власть; a few , a little — некоторое число, некоторое количество, few , little -мало, почти нет…

· Few economists realize…

Мало кто из экономистов понимает… (Почти нет экономистов, которые понимают…)

· A few economists realize…

Некоторые экономисты понимают… (Есть несколько экономистов, которые понимают…)

3. Артикли также могут указывать на место смыслового акцента в предложении. Это часто влечет за собой изменение порядка слов, так как в русском языке центр высказывания (на это часто указывает неопределенный артикль) обычно находится в конце предложения.

· The deficit reduction program had a profound effect on the economy.

Программа снижения дефицита бюджета оказала на экономику страны большое влияние .

· A deficit reduction program had a profound effect on the economy.

На экономику страны большое влияние оказала программа снижения дефицита бюджета .

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	If there really is a new beginning, not just the same old new beginning, then the president will have learned the lesson of his predecessor's failure. He will be able, if matters go awry, to overcome ideology, and accept *the* premise that when it comes to checking OPEC and big unions and big companies, a certain, not unuseful, role can be played by government.
2.	If this process continues, the USA will not have *the* auto industry, steel industry or heavy machine industry. They are disappearing. What it has in certain areas is underdevelopment. New England is one of such areas.
3.	As Britain's deepest postwar recession continues, with industrial production plummeting and unemployment soaring at rates last seen during *the* Depression, fears are growing that Prime Minister's medicine may be permanently disabling rather than curing.
4.	Democratic economists believe that at a time when business is operating with considerable slack, the nation could stand even larger deficits without much risk of accelerating inflation.
5.	There was a time when the government leaders were well aware of this.
6.	West Germany has now built up its trade to a position among the main suppliers to many countries in South East Asia.
7.	The European Union's industry ministers Friday called for a link between all state subsidies to the steel industry and cuts in capacity. But they were unable to agree on a deadline for phasing out subsidies.
8.	Some Planning Ministry officials favor an income tax not because the government needs *the* money, but because they believe Kuwaitis should understand the relationship between effort and reward.
9.	The Bundesbank said Thursday that is does not see any room for a retreat from its tight credit policies despite an economic downturn, which has spurred repeated calls for _ lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and fight unemployment.
10.	All this boiled down to a demand, not yet explicitly stated, for a program of aid and reconstruction on the scale being planned for Europe at that time by the incipient Organization for European Economic Cooperation (OEEC).
11.	The coalition began campaigning for a tax to get at excessive oil profits early last fall.
12.	It is time for a decision: without it, in the end, there will be no possible solution.
13.	Bonn — An era has ended in West Germany. It lasted for 30 years and it was called «industrial peace».
14.	An array of cheap government loans and services were made available to encourage investment in industry.
15.	The merger trend is roaring full steam ahead in the world auto industry, on a scale not seen since the 1920s. Back in 1921, there were 88 auto manufacturers in the U.S. By 1928, only 32 remained. Today there are only 25 major auto manufacturers in the world. And by all indications, only *a few* of these will survive the next few years.
16.	*Few* corporations are willing or able to risk the huge sums necessary to compete on a world-wide scale. So, corporations have been seeking partners in the production of vehicles and their components, some in order to survive, others in order to expand even further.
17.	To the average housewife, who can see for herself that the prices in the supermarket are edging up, the Labor Department's bulletin last week was hardly a surprise. But *few* housewives, or their husbands either, were aware of another, «invisible» form of inflation — namely, reductions in the size of packages that are not accompanied by reduction in price.
18.	*Few* other international problems have such a complex structure or such wide repercussions.
19.	Patent costs are escalating and *few* inventors can afford to take out world-wide patents.
20.	*Few* employees realize how thin is the thread from which their retirement security hangs.
21.	There are relatively *few* small firms in the UK.
22.	As a result, *few* pronouncements on the need for research are translated into reality.
23.	*Few* have yet looked outwardly at the implications of introducing this new technology for society in general.
24.	Certainly there was *little* evidence that he would be able to shift the State Secretary from his fundamental lack of enthusiasm for the project.
25.	But there is *little* evidence that they have become effective coordinating committees.
26.	The procedure leaves *little* room for the trade-offs and package deals.
27.	It has become clear that there is *little* prospect of the huge concerns expanding their work forces.
28.	Employment in public corporations was *little* changed.
29.	Ministers had made *a little* progress on the question of how to handle affiliates of central organizations.
30.	Employment fell *a little* in mechanical engineering.

IX РАЗДЕЛ

Сослагательное наклонение

Сослагательное наклонение в английском языке выражается различными формами. В русском же языке оно имеет только одну форму — сочетание формы глагола прошедшего времени с частицей бы (сделал бы). Поэтому возникает ряд трудностей при переводе предложений с этим грамматическим явлением. Остановимся на некоторых из них.

1. Сочетание should с инфинитивом после оборотов типа it is necessary, it is desirable, it is important и т.п., а также после глаголов to demand, to suggest, to order и т.п. часто переводится на русский язык прошедшим временем и выражает требуемое, предполагаемое или желаемое действие.

· The parties to the contract demanded that the documents should be submitted without delay (…the documentsbe submitted …).

Стороны по контракту потребовали , чтобы документы были представлены без промедления.

2. Употребление в условном предложении сочетания should с инфинитивом вместо Present Indefinite придает высказыванию меньшую степень вероятности, которое переводится на русский язык будущим временем .

· If need should arise (should need arise), we shall get in touch with you again.

Если возникнет необходимость, мы с вами снова свяжемся.

3. Форма were с инфинитивом в придаточных условия указывает на еще меньшую степень вероятности высказывания. На русский язык переводится сослагательным наклонением часто со словами если… бы, почему-нибудь, и т.п.

· Such a policy is bound to be unpopular and if Germany were to support it they would undoubtedly risk their leadership in Europe.

Такая политика наверняка не будет пользоваться популярностью, и, если бы Германиястала ее поддерживать, она несомненно поставила бы под угрозу свое лидерство в Европе.

4. Союз if может быть опущен в условных придаточных предложениях, тогда слова should , had , were ставятся перед подлежащим .

· Had they known it they would have sent the documents beforehand.

Если бы они знали об этом, они выслали бы документы заранее.

Перевод всех других форм сослагательного наклонения как правило не вызывает трудностей.

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	The United Nations Human Rights Commission yesterday *urged* that economic sanctions and an oil embargoshould be introduced against certain countries.
2.	The analysts *recommended* that the United States in formulating its policies for the region *should demonstrate* a sensitivity to the internal pressures felt by the Gulf rulers.
3.	The Government, therefore, *propose* that these matters *should* , in the first instance, *be left* to negotiation between the Corporation and the Federation.
4.	*It is important* that the real situation *should* *be examined* because anything which promotes irrational differences between earnings in an industry is bound to cause trouble.
5.	Health depends to a great extent on housing and education, said Dr. A. who put forward the resolution *asking* that an extra $ 2,000 million a yearshould be provided initially.
6.	The pragmatists argue that the president cannot afford to take the political risk of seeing hundreds of thousands of automobile workers thrown out of jobs because of foreign competition. They *urge* that the administration *ask* the Japanese government to restrain the level of Japanese automobile exports for three years.
7.	The majority of people, *should they be* politicians, trade unionists of employers, are now all in favour of East-West trade. The problem today is how to break down the remaining barriers.
8.	If Bonn *should decide* to buy less gas, it would certainly *soften* U.S. opposition. But if the West Germans conclude they need all the gas they are slated to get, there could be trouble.
9.	Today's talks, therefore, will certainly lay down guide-lines for a Tory Manifesto *should an early election materialize* .
10.	Objections to this plan, *supposing there should be any* , should be reported to the committee at once.
11.	Accounting for about 40 per cent of OPEC production, Saudi Arabia currently enjoys enormous leverage over the market and its oilproducing colleagues. *If it were to cut back* sharply, however, sagging oil prices *would* almost certainly *jump up* once again.
12.	The major U.S. auto companies lost an astonishing $ 4.2 billion this year. Of the three only General Motors is likely to show a profit next year. *If the two weaker companies were to collapse* , hundreds of thousands of jobs *would be lost* in the auto industry, alone, and perhaps a million jobs taking into account the industries that produce materials for cars such as steel and glass.
13.	One of their fears is that the auto industry, if given relief, would increase prices rather than production. Another argument that they have used is that even *if production were to increase* , General Motors *would pick up* roughly 60 per cent of the lost Japanese sales and that *would not provide* enough help for Chrysler and Ford.
14.	They had a special reason for preferring short-time — the low normal wastage at its works — but, again, fear of a strikeif redundancies were declared also influenced the company.
15.	Unemployment of those proportions, *were it general* , *would be* a national catastrophe.
16.	*Had the election campaign been still in progress* the wage squeeze might have become an issue.
17.	February's trade figures showed a $ 62 million deficit. There *would have been* an even worse result, *had it not been for* the $ 559 million that foreign businessmen invested in Britain.
18.	The Prime Minister refused to be drawn yesterday into saying what he *would do if his attempt* to «renegotiate» the agreement *were to fail* .

X РАЗДЕЛ

Эллиптические конструкции

1. Конструкция типа if any , if anything служит для усиления значения и переводится средствами усиления характерными для русского языка. Например, словами: если и есть, то…, почти нет, пожалуй, вообще, во всяком случае, если уж на то пошло, как бы то ни было, скорее и т.п.

· The government has few funds, if any , to finance the project.

У правительства если и есть средства на финансирование этого проекта, то их очень мало. (У правительства почти нет средств…).

· Little, if anything , could be done to prop up the falling prices on the stock market.

Пожалуй мало что можно было сделать для того, чтобы сдержать падение цен на фондовом рынке. (Почти ничего нельзя было…).

2. Уступительные (т.е. указывающие на обстоятельство, вопреки которому совершается действие главного предложения) придаточные предложения, вводимые союзами whoever , however и т.п., относятся к эллиптическим конструкциям и представляют некоторую трудность для перевода. Обратите внимание на перевод некоторых союзов в подобных предложениях:

*though (although)*	— хотя
*notwithstanding that*	— несмотря на то что
*whoever*	— кто бы ни
*whatever*	— что бы ни; какой бы ни
*however*	— как бы ни
*no matter what*	— что бы ни
*no matter how*	— как бы ни

· However busy the Prime Minister was, he found time to meet the delegation.

Как бы ни был занят премьер министр, он нашел время встретиться с делегацией.

3. Конструкция if с причастием ( II ) или прилагательным переводятся уступительным придаточным предложением с помощью слов если, хотя и т.д.

· The advantage,if evident , has yet to be realized.

Данное преимущество, хотя оно и очевидно , пока еще предстоит реализовать.

· If approved , the program will be launched.

Если эта программа будет одобрена , то начнется ее реализация.

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	Few mistakes, *if any* , might be said to have arisen from the application of this theory.
2.	Britain tried protecting its automakers for many years. Now, the accumulated costs of bad management and feather-bedding have driven the industry to the brink. *If anything* , such protection seems to retard a shift to more productive manufacture.
3.	Extremely damaging was the tangle of price regulations created by controls, providing billions in unearned, *if legal* , profits for refiners and retailers who know their way around Washington.
4.	When hearing is finished, the committee decides what report, *if any* , it will make to the House on the measure.
5.	The Prime Minister has on several occasions refused to tell the House the purport of his conversation on this matter, *if any* , with the President.
6.	*If anything* , it would be to the advantage of this country to pursue an independent policy.
7.	*Whatever the approach* , the big Western countries seem to be using fancy arithmetic to give the appearance of complying with the International Energy Agency's recommended 90-day strategic storage minimum. The United States, for example, counts oil flowing through pipelines, refineries and other facilities.
8.	But *whatever his long term aims* , the President's immediate intentions and motives were made relentlessly clear at his last press conference less then three weeks ago.
9.	Though this thesis sounds admirably democratic in principle, most people believe that it would make it extremely difficult,*if not impossible* , for them to attain unity and real democracy.

XI РАЗДЕЛ

Сложные атрибутивные конструкции

1. Двучленные словосочетания, как правило, не вызывают трудностей в переводе, в то время как многочленные требуют часто анализа. Его лучше начинать с последнего (определяемого) существительного. Затем разбить конструкцию на смысловые группы и переводить их справа налево.

Например словосочетание budget deficit reduction program следует начать переводить с последнего слова: program — программа . Разбиваем на смысловые группы: 1) reduction program (программа снижения); 2) budget deficit (дефицита бюджета). Теперь переводим все словосочетание: программа снижения дефицита бюджета .

2. Часто при переводе сложных атрибутивных конструкций необходима контекстуальная развертка. Например, сочетание wage control чаще означает ограничение роста заработной платы; commodity markets — сырьевые рынки, рынки сырья (сырьевых товаров, биржевых товаров) и т.п.

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	The ultimate decision will test the president's overall economic policy and its practical application toward troubled domestic industries, as well as *his campaign pledge* to *the blue-collar constituency* in the auto-producing states.
2.	The heads of state of the European Union agreed this week in the Netherlands on an *anti-recession strategy* that calls for lower interest rates and new spur to production.
3.	Although other manufacturing companies are not faring as poorly outside the United States as the automakers, they are not thrilled about *their earning prospects* .
4.	With *their pay rise* banned by the Government, the men have refused to cooperate with their employers *in productivity measures* to which the rise was linked.
5.	But strongest of all the arguments is the huge profits *the car owners* have been making over the years. It is one of the ironies of the situation that just as their payrolls fall and *their car outputs* go down, all the companies are reporting record profits made for the past year.
6.	*His April Budget increases* formed a very large part in the *retail price index increase* during that month.
7.	The Treasurer introduces a Bill to implement the Government's plan to give *preferential taxation treatment* tolife insurance companies .
8.	The figures are in and they spell disaster — some 1,259,200 people will join the ranks of the unemployed as a direct result ofthe Administration budget cuts .
9.	Coupled with *the spending and tax proposals* were changes in the federal regulatory process and monetary policy.
10.	The steps announced in Paris, to take effect Monday, include decreasing *the Bank of France's key money-market intervention rate* to 10.75 per cent from 11.25 per cent, while imposing *a 5-percent reserve requirement* onnonresident bank accounts , French monetary officials said.
11.	In the past few years coordination agencies have been created by the Government to includea Foreign Exchange Committee andan Internal Finance Committee ; and the Central Bank and the Ministers of Finance, Commerce and *State Enterprises* exert some influence in this sphere.
12.	*The three month United Nations World Trade and Development Conference* , which was attended by representatives of 122 Governments, was called the Little General Assembly.
13.	If you thought that this latest increase in the index — which, by the way, does not reflect at all *the Government-imposed postal charge increases* — would justify *a bigger wage increase* , you are mistaken.
14.	Paradoxically,*the poll returns* mean that he will be able to go ahead with his plan to introduce *a pay-as-you-earn income tax scheme* , which had been the main issue of the elections.
15.	Far more questionable are the restrictions proposed for *the state-financed unemployment benefit programs* forthe short-term unemployed .
16.	The report listed a whole range of *tax-deductible items* available to companies, including *company houses* , yachts for entertaining *overseas clients* and even *company racehorses* .
17.	«These *supply-oriented policies* are directed at the medium-term,» the panel said, «If they are successful, it will raise the international competitiveness of German products».
18.	The British P.M., who has spent nearly two years trying to force a reconstruction of the badly battered British economy, sees the next six months as a crucial «test of will» for *a survival-of-the-fittest tight money, budget-cutting strategy* for reducing inflation, inefficiency and the size and economic involvement of government.
19.	Tokyo — Sanyo Electric expects to showrecord profit and sales figures for the year ending next Nov. 30, company president said Tuesday. He said *after-tax profit* for the period will rise.

XII РАЗДЕЛ

Обзорные упражнения

Проанализируйте и переведите следующие предложения:

1.	*To gauge* this risk, it is important *to start* by distinguishing between cause and effect. The links between the two can be hardto sort out .
2.	To ignore the threat that a slump in share prices poses to the economy *would* be far too sanguine.
3.	Bundesbank basing has never been more popular. Nowit is not only Germany's partners in the European exchange-rate mechanism *who* attack its high interest rates, but also business and economists at home.
4.	The number of Japanese cars exported could *well* drop, yet their total value still rise.
5.	At the end of the G-7 meeting, the Canadian Prime Minister tried to buy a little more time. *While* he promised to consult his Cabinet about changes in policy when he returns from Europe, he said action would await the U.S. response to the summit.
6.	Smaller producers have fallen behind *since* state monopolies took over oil production, and now need western help simply to remain self-sufficient.
7.	Although *Cabinet members* have been sending out signals that *wage restraint* of some sort will be imposed on *the federal public service* , the Government has little stomach for a full blown system of *wage and price controls* .
8.	The Prime Minister promised a shift in economic policy, but there have been *few* signs that the Government has any new ideas about how to respond to the crisis.
9.	*With* the Canadian economy turning in its worst performance since the Great Depression, the Prime Minister faces a daunting task when he returns from his European trip on Sunday.
10.	This year has seen duties on aluminum from Russia and — bizarrely, *given* that the company *involved* is controlled by *unsubsidised* foreign investors — on mountain-bikes from China.
11.	But in the past his governments have shown little ability to achieve such laudable, *if obvious* , objectives in policy.
12.	The Commerce Department announced revisions for its November trade report, which *was released* last month. November exports, which originally *had been reported* as $ 37.5 billion, *were revised* to $ 36.9 billion. The figures *are seasonally adjusted* .
13.	Nissan Japan's second biggest car maker recently raised Y 51 billion ($ 500 m) *by dumping* its stake in Yasuda Trust Bank.
14.	Australia's new Prime Minister (the former Treasurer) *must* share responsibility for the current slump.
15.	We *should* judge presidents for what they can change, and their powers over the economy range from modest to nonexistent.
16.	What is good for euro-land as a whole, however, *may not be* right for its constituent parts.
17.	The economy appears *to have grown* at an annual rate of 3% or better during the second half of the year.
18.	Many people also worry about another potential risk: that a stockmarket crash *would* have substantial «wealth effect» on consumers. Because so many households own shares, the argument goes, a drop in the stockmarket *would* take a bite out of many families' wealth.
19.	Although Americans now do much of the hand-wringing about competitiveness, *it is* Europeans *who* have more to worry about.
20.	Today many of the firms struggling to survive in the young AI (artificial intelligence) industry predict its imminent disappearance. They *may well* be right.
21.	Even the recent adjustments to the taxation and price regime for the oil industry, *while* welcomed for the resulting C $ 2 bn improvement in industry cash flow, confirmed doubts in many minds that the Government had not understood what was happening in that vital sector.
22.	*Since* these profits are closely tied to the economy's health, a plunge in share prices may occur because the economy's prospects have grown bleaker, and not the other way round.
23.	This financial straitjacket leaves Ottawa with *little* room to find funds for job creation.
24.	*With* his credibility and perhaps his career at stake General Motors's chairman told workers: «The North American automotive industry sustained losses *unparalleled* in its history. GM is taking aggressive action to reverse this trend and increase its competitiveness».
25.	Even before its most recent fall, the dollar was substantially undervalued in terms of its international purchasing power — *suggesting* that if nothing else happens it will eventually rise again.
26.	Yet last year the core European countries maintained tight monetary and fiscal policies. As it feeds through to the economy this year, that tightening will restrict growth. Now,*if anything* , the core needs lower interest rates to make sure its recovery does not falter.
27.	The decline in exports *was concentrated* in capital goods, consumer goods and autos.
28.	The case that the president engineered the recovery rests on the argument that the deficit reduction gave the economy an extra boost *by lowering* interest rates.
29.	To win economically again, Japan *must* liberalize and democratize its society and its economy. The old ways won't work anymore.
30.	What if economy starts overheating? Then — or preferably even before — the chancellor *should listen* to the Bank of England and increase interest rates.
31.	Eleven European economics have converged enough to merge their currencies into one, but a single monetary policymay not fit all.
32.	Meanwhile, the painful slog to qualify for the single currency is nearly over. Eleven countries, having slimmed their budget deficit enough *to meet* the requirements for joining Europe's new single currency, the euro, plan *to hand* responsibility for monetary policy to the European Central Bank (ECB) in less than ten mouths' time.
33.	The American economy *would be* roughly where it is today if George Bush, Ross Perot or — to pick a random name — radio shock jock Howard Stern *had been* elected at that time.
34.	Andit was America *that* persuaded South Korea and other Asian countries to begin to open up their capital markets, and discouraged them from pegging their currency to the dollar.
35.	Short-term interest rates rose by about a quarter of a point, *while* budgets were squeezed by around 1% of GDP
36.	Investor, business and consumer confidence has eroded steadily *since* last November, when the Finance Minister introduced his controversial budget.
37.	Kenneth Clarke, the chancellor, paints a golden scene: rising investment, a falling balance of payments deficit, stable inflation and, *with* buoyant tax receipts and higher-than-expected receipts from privatisation, a reduction in public borrowing.
38.	*Inspired* by the 50th anniversary of the Bretton Woods conference, the case for a new system of exchange-rate co-ordination is again being debated.
39.	As neither country plans to loosen its fiscal stance, *if anything* , Germany plans to crunch its budget deficit even more this year — a single monetary policy is thus likely to give their economies an untimely knock.
40.	A separate release of January's money supply figures from the Bank of England showed the narrow M0aggregate growing at an annual rate of 2.2%. The aggregate, which consists largely of notes and coins in circulation, *is often viewed* as a good indicator of economic activity.
41.	Some economists have long argued that the dollar's ups and downs do no harm: companies that want to avoid exchange-rate uncertainty can do so *by trading* currencies in the forward market, orby using other financial instruments.
42.	When an economy such as America's has a fifth of its commercial property vacant, it *must* fall far short of its potential.
43.	If it wants to affect the current account, the government *should* now either cut its budget surplus drastically, or use microeconomiс reforms to lower personal savings.
44.	«Monetarism» (the idea that growth in some particular measure of money, e.g. M3, *may* accurately predict inflation) is out of favour among economists. Yet it would be wrong to ignore money completely. Particular measures of money *may have proved* unreliable guides to inflation, but when many different financial indicators say the same thing, it is well to pay attention.
45.	The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates last week *to contain* inflation.
46.	*If sustained* (a big if), larger productivity gains — meaning more efficiency — *would mean* larger increases in wages or living standards.
47.	AI (artificial intelligence) is only one, relatively small element in the computer systems needed to solve intricate business problems. *It is* the little extra bit *that* makes the whole thing good.
48.	We reward presidents for good times and punish them for bad times *when* they usually don't have much to do with either.
49.	By delaying interest rates cuts, the Bundesbank is sending a clear message to unions: excessive pay rises will not be accommodated *but* will cost jobs.
50.	We ought to stop pretending that a president is maestro of a business cycle.
51.	*With* inflation, government borrowing and strikes on the rise, united Germany is hardly the iron man of Europe.
52.	Only time will tell whether this pump-priming (комплекс мер по стабилизации экономики) will cure an ailing Australia. But it is another nail in the coffin of monetarism which, literally, hasn't delivered the goods in those industrialized economies *used* as a test bed for a theorybest left in the laboratory.
53.	Action to hold the dollar's value close to some «equilibrium»,*however defined* , would require American interest rates to be directed to that end.
54.	The range of 3.5-5.5% for M3 growth is two tight. It *was based* on an inflation target of 2% and a potential economic growth rate (that which *can be sustained* without increasing inflation) of 2-2.5%.
55.	*Propping* the falling dollar calls for dearer money in America — but so too does the fast growing domestic economy.
56.	The domestic policy frameworks of most countries do not reflect the role of TNCs (transnational corporations) as integrating agents of capital, trade, technology and training flows; hence one of the first tasks of Governments in the new world economyis to adjust their policy-making structures.
57.	The president's deficit-reduction program has had a «profoundly important» effect on the economy. The president *had to* «jump start the recovery».
58.	Ireland, which ran a large budget surplus last year, *might* be forced to run an even bigger one if the single monetary policy is not tight enough to suit its needs.
59.	In the 1960s and 1970s, presidents stroveto *sustain* «full employment» and *to avoid* recession; the result was *to encourage* easy credit policies by the Fed (Federal Reserve System) that led to high inflation.
60.	Initial reaction to the Prime Minister's new package was sour on the foreign exchange and bond markets yesterday; but since itis designed to win an election, this is no great surprise.
61.	Germany *might* soon set the stage for the next leg of growth. The immediate benefit of all this to the rest of the world *should be* lower German interest rates, and hence lower rates in other countries.
62.	«The problem is worse for high-technology products like computers and pharmaceuticals, *where* EU imports have been rising at an annual rate of 8%, *while* exports have grown by only 2%», Mr. McWilliams said.
63.	By 1990 the American market for diesels had *all but* disappeared.
64.	Average pay settlements have fallen. Volkswagen's workers have just agreed a 4.9% rise. If a company with slumping profits in a cutthroat industry agrees such a big increase what hope is there for firms in more sheltered sector?
65.	The factory sector has spent most of the year in the doldrums, *depressed* by defense cuts, weaker exports, and *sagging* orders generally.
66.	No wonder, then, that a growing chorus of financial pundits reckon a devaluation of some sort is likely just after the electionif not before .
67.	The European exchange rate mechanism (ERM) *has been dominated* by the D-mark almost since its birth in 1979.
68.	Most economists are forecasting little or no growth. Yet the Bundesbank president has just said that there is stillno room for cutting interest rates. *Are* the inflation-fighters in *danger of overdoing* it?
69.	The stocks will have to be replenished swiftly *if they are to supply* the rising demand.
70.	Investors have begun to shift a healthy slice of their portfolios into cash. But the mass exodus of fund investors that many doomsayers have predicted *has yet to* *materialize* .
71.	Last year the trade deficit was $ 96 billion. *It might* be 50 per cent higher this year.
72.	The advocates of cheaper money *seem not to have noticed* that monetary policy has already been loosened a good deal, or *to remember* that it takes at least two years for such changes to have their full effect on the economy.
73.	Any upturn in demand will suck in imports and swell the deficit to bursting point. This *would be* the case if confidence in the UK economy *were shaken so* badly that overseas investors *started* to withdraw this money.
74.	The Government officially estimates that nominal capital gains amounted to $ 62.2 billion over the 1990s, far outweighing any gap in the current account. But the author of the report agrees that this is a significant underestimate, *for* the breaking-down of the figures shows a $ 78.1 billion gain from portfolio investment, and an implausible loss of $ 23.5 billion on net direct investment.
75.	*Since* the reserves generally earn poor returns, they drag down the average return on equity.
76.	The latest data suggest that labour markets are a *little* firmer as the new year gets under way.
77.	American GNP grew by an average of 2.7% a year, *boosted* by tax cuts, deregulation and a massive defence build-up.
78.	Pirelli cannot afford to keep a permanent team employed just on acquisitions. But the lack of planning meant that it was often unclear who, *if anyone* , was speaking for the firm as the talks dragged on.
79.	The workaholic older generation in Japan *is being replaced* by middle-aged corporate mercenaries who, like their counterparts in the West, are no longer blindly loyal to their firms. They, in turn, *are being followed* by younger workers who seem more interested in leisure than in what is happening at the office.
80.	The Bundesbank's job is not *steering* the real economy; by law, its task is *ensuring* price stability, defined as an inflation rate of 2% or less. The Bundesbank has had more success than other central banks in *using* monetary targets to control inflation.
81.	In the Senate, Chairman Lloyd Bentsen, a Texas Democrat, of the Finance Committee agreed to prepare a bill that would finance any tax cuts with increases in other taxes. The decision placates Appropriations Committee Chairman Robert Byrd whose cooperation is needed *if a tax bill is to pass* .
82.	The Mexican central bank *has also had to issue* plenty of tesobonos — dollar linked bonds that are popular with investors who worry about currency risk.
83.	Even in Mexico, none of the blue-chip industrial companies had yet defaulted on their dollar debts, though some *might* eventually do so.
84.	The pressure on companies *to cut* costs and boost productivity stems from the economy's structural problems — public and private debt, defense downsizing, and competitiveness — which will not go away anytime soon.
85.	*Had* the D-mark *been* *revalued* at the time of unification, it *would have helped* dampen Germany's economic boom, and inflation *could have been kept* in check at lower interest rates. Other ERM countries *would now have* lower interest rates than they do, and their exportswould have grown to meet Germany's demand.
86.	The news a businessman from Utah was delivering was too good: *for* the industrialist was telling of booming investment, state-of-the art products and filled order books.
87.	*Since* money-supply figures can be unreliable, some economists prefer to watch changes in nominal GDP: roughly, the sum of inflation and real growth.
88.	*Fuelled* by eager venture capitalists, the first generation of AI (artificial intelligence) companies sprang from university labs in the mid-1980s.
89.	Five years ago artificial intelligence (AI) *was supposed to be* the computer industry's next entrepreneurial pot of gold.
90.	*Using* protectionist rules to shelter European industries from competition would only make the problems worse, he said.
91.	The head of Swiss Bank Corporation's international division told journalists that if Mexico *was to attract* foreign money after August's presidential elections, a clean vote and continuity of policy were not enough: Mexicowas to devalue the peso too.
92.	Wayne Angell, a former Fed governor and inflation hawk, reckons that if the central bank waits until its August meeting, it *will have to raise* short-term rates by a full percentage point to calm the markets.
93.	France's central bank, unlike the Bundesbank, is not independent of its government. If French unemployment continues to rise, politicians *might be tempted* to cut interest rates in order to spur growth.
94.	Germany's finance minister hailed America's sound economy and said that the administration wasright not to react to the dollar's decline.
95.	If this improvement in efficiency *could be achieved* for all investment across an economy, incomes per head *would* typically *rise* by more than extra percentage point each year.
96.	The space in which TNCs (transnational corporations) act is expanding as more countries give a great role to the private sector and market forces in their economies.
97.	Current account deficits clearly matter: if Britain is running a deficit with the rest of the world, then foreigners *have to be encouraged* to hold sterling.
98.	After studying acquisitions at 20 different firms, the authors of a new book conclude that managers do not pay enough attention to *evaluating* and *negotiating* mergers and takeovers.
99.	The ERM (exchange rate mechanism) was designed as a multilateral system. In theory, if one country's currency hit its floor against another's, both governments *had to* take action.
100.	Take France as an example: the markets have traditionally kept French interest rates above Germany's to make up for the greater risk that the frank *might be devaluated* .
101.	*To treat* the European productivity malaise, he called for greater training and education, weaker currencies against the yen and dollar, and restrained wage costs and social benefits.
102.	Meanwhile, as domestic sales have slowed, Japanese companies have switched their sights again vigorously toward overseas markets.
103.	The craft workshops in Britain *were overtaken* by American methods of mass production.
104.	*After surveying* Japanese firms, HILL's researchers confirm the widespread impression in Japan that the changing attitudes to work are shaking the foundations of the much-vaunted Japanese system of life-time employment.
105.	A stronger D-mark *would* , at least in the short term, make other countries’ exports more attractive. But the revaluation *would* *have to be* large to make much difference.
106.	Instead of making a wide range of products inefficiently, as they did in the days of import-substitution, many firms have learned *to specialize* .
107.	As a result, despite recession in America and in parts of Europe, Japan's exports were 12% higher in dollar terms in the first half of the year.
108.	To finance higher investment America *would* either *have to* increase private saving or slash its budget deficit.
109.	Now the benefitsto be had from revaluing the D-mark are less clear.
110.	Mexico *has also had to* keep interest rates high to maintain capital inflows.
111.	As the economy recovers, imports are likely to rise again.
112.	Devaluation *is more likely to create* than solve the balance of payments «problem», as it would undermine Britain's exchange-rate credibility and so make foreigners more nervous about sterling assets.
113.	The rise of Japan's biggest car maker mirrors its *success at* *making* its factories more flexible than those of its western competitors.
114.	Most economists' familiar advice: the best way for governments *to spur* growth is *to help* markers *to work* better andto adopt stable and credible macroeconomic policies which encourage firms *to take* a long-term view.