Реферат: Общая теория глобализации

MikhailDelyagin, Doctor of Economics Public director of Globalization ProblemInstitute

Generaltheory of globalization

«Worldfor Russia: the way we need it and what we can do with it»

(Analyticalreport open part in brief)

September1998

Contents:

|Resume|2 | |I. Information technologies expansion |3 |

|| On difference significance in the technological time | | |speed | | |1.2. Newresources for new technologies |9 | |1.3. Old technologies «depreciation» |10 ||II. Several consequences of markets globalization |12 | |2.1. Competitionglobalization – monopolies globalization |12 | |2.2. «Euro»: suppression ofthreat and destructive egoism |13 | |!2.3. Financial competition |14 | | Technologicalprocess slowdown | | |III. Global regulation for global competition |17 | |3.1.What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»? |17 |

w6| |3.3. Value of global regulation |18 |

Aboutthe author in brief

Delyagin,Mikhail Gennadjevich, born in 1968, Doctor of Economics.

From1990 till 1993 – expert of the B. Eltsyn Group of Experts, since 1994 – leadinganalyst of the President of Russia Analytic Department, since 1996 – referentof the President of Russia assistant. Since March 1997 – advisor of thevice-prime-minister – Minister of Internals, since June 1997 – advisor of thefirst vice-prime-minister Mr. B. Nemtsov. On his leaving the government one dayprior to August 17th, he established a Globalization Problem Institute. In thebeginning of October 1998 after new government under Mr. Primakov had startedits work, he was restored at the public service.

Hehas more than 300 publications (including in the USA, Germany, France, China,India, Egypt etc.), 4 monographs, with the latest — «Economy of non-payments»was republished for three times since 1996 till 1997.

Resume

1.Information technologies development has brought to:

.«meta-technologies» creation, application of which makes it impossible for theparty which applies such technologies to compete with the developers of thesetechnologies;

.reorientation of technologies from necessary material objects formation tonecessary type of conscious and culture formation

(transformationfrom high-tech to high-hume);

.acceleration of information technologies development to such extent that«short», theoretical investments are productive for the most advancedinformation technologies;

.approximate depreciation of traditional technologies;

.Information society creation in which money plays second role as compared withtechnologies.

.Major humanity technological development prospects:

.Exacerbation and compelling character acquisition by divultion betweendeveloped and backward countries, and also between developed countries andcreating new technologies and the rest developed countries;

.Insulation of people engaged in information technologies into internal

«informationcommunity», its concentration in the territory of the developed countries; slowconcentration of the «information community» of the world and together with itconcentration of the world progress in the «most developed» countries;

.progress termination beyond the developed countries; social and financialdegradation of the developing countries;

.Possible abrupt slowdown of the progress in the result of global financialcrises and destructive competition between the USA and

EuropeanCurrency Union.

.Global monopolies formation is being performed:

.At global markets of separate financial instruments;

.In the course of these markets integration process (reduction of the

«transformationvalue» among them to negligible level) as information technologies advance – inthe form of the united global monopoly.

Theseprocesses will demand in the nearest future creation of the overnationalregulation mechanism for global monopolies, which will be of more malaisecharacter.

|The whole development of the humanity including in the field of | |economics isdetermined nowadays and will be determined in the | |nearest decade by progressto the new qualitative level with two | |fundamental processes simultaneously:new technologies development, | |information technologies primarily, and basedon it quick competition| |globalization, primarily in the financial markets. |

!lvl0I.Information technologies expansion

1.1.Information technologies: money recedes into the background

Technologicaldevelopment has brought in the middle nineties to actual creation by the mostadvanced part of the humanity that very «information community» which has beenwidely discussed for the last decades and so that no one takes the matterseriously.

Realitiesof its functioning, casual connections and competitive potential by the reasonof intellectual and technological gap can be hardly perceivable by those whoare beyond of that process.

Themost important way of showing this qualitative technological breakthrough whichhas lead to creation of the information society and at the same time one of itsmajor parts is creation and quick distribution of the so-called«meta-technologies».

Specificsof this type of technologies lies in that that the fact of thier implementationmakes for the party which uses such technologies principially impossible tocompete with the developer of these technologies in a serious level. This maybe called a price for access to the effectiveness of a higher level which isprovided by such technologies and which might be found in dealer and licensedsystems. Modern advanced technologies in direct or indirect form place the userin the position of a licensee.

Themost telling examples of meta-technologies are:

.Network computer: distribution of its memory in the net provides the developerwith the whole information of the user and allows the developer to interfere intoactivity of the latter or even to control it (external control principle of theplugged in computer has bee already realized);

.Modern communication technologies which allow to wiretap all telephone messagesall over the world; in the nearest future computer processing of the wholevolume of these messages and also wiretap of all messages in the Internet willbe possible;

.Different organization technologies; their main subgroups:

*Control technologies, including corporation activity organization: oriented toculture and value system of the country the developer, such technologies reducecompetitiveness of the corporations which represent other cultures; we shouldalso note that in general distribution within a society of a foreign types ofculture which do not integrate with the culture of the society and as theresult the culture which not only enriches it but remains detached from it,makes competitiveness of this society weaker;

*Formation of the mass conscious technology: permanent adaptation of the latterto the forms of influence arouses objective necessity in permanent renovationof the forms; without renovated technologies which at first appear in theleading country and then are distributed in other countries mass conscious ofthe society using technologies which influence it will get out of hand of thestate.

Nowadaysthe said technologies have become predominating for their being the mostproductive. These technologies having sweepingly spread for the last years havealready become a technological component of the information society: if wespeak about it from the technological point of view we possiblyhalf-consciously and non knowing about their peculiarities we intend first ofall meta-technologies.

Itis quite natural, that conscious transformation from creation of newtechnologies to their distribution and which is followed by creation ofinformation society was expressed in the clearest form by the leader of thisprocess Mr. W. Gates. He pointed out that the main factor for information technologiesdevelopment as compared with the previous of 1997 year, lays not in theirupgrading but in complex usage of already existing technical means for«information transparency» of all countries — «transparency» as far as it canbe understood quiet homogeneous for the countries creating meta-technologiesand aiming at protection of their global competitive advantages.

Butsignificance of information technology distribution is not limited by creationof meta-technologies and safe provision of psychological, intellectual andtechnological leadership of their creators. Besides provision of globalinformation transparency the most important part of information technologies isthe possibility (in 1999 it is still potential) for deep and quite free reconstructionof mass conscious.

Thepoint is that unlike traditional «material» technologies the product of whichare the goods, the product of information technologies nolens volens is acertain condition of the human conscious including mass conscious. Moreover:the most significant part of information technologies was primarily aimed atsuch reconstruction of human conscious taking it into consideration as themajor purpose for influence.

Itis more effective to influence conscious than to influence the material.Technologies connected with it have already received the name. They are called«high-hume» versus «high-tech». In previous times technologies were oriented tomatter but nowadays they are reorienting to the public conscience, publicculture. Besides their high productivity, «high-hume» technologies differ withhigh changeability, i.e. maximum speed of making progress.

Thepioneers of their exploration — the USA — engage the most mobile and incorrespondingly the most effective form of financial capital — venture capital— to creation of the most effective type of information technologies.Engagement of such capital to creation of the ordinary technologies as it ismay be shown by the experience of the developing countries is impossiblebecause of «slowness» of the non-information technologies: performance of anyproject connected with such technologies demand for larger time period thantraditionally «short» venture capital is ready to be invested.

Inthe result of it we observe destructive non-compliance of the speed of theventure capital turnover and establishment of traditional technologies.Wide-ranging investments of the venture capital are not effective for thenational economy because of the said factors: it leaves without creatinganything real and leaving after it only desolation.

Butthe speed of information technology development has a qualitative higher rankthan ordinary technologies. That is why information technologies are the onlytype of technologies in respect of which «short» venture capital has a quitenormal productivity. Their technological cycle is so small that it correspondsto the speed of the financial capital turnover.

Thatis why the American economy should not be afraid of «distending a soap exchangebubble»: it looks like a soap bubble only from outside. Actually the huge partof these venture investments is directed into the information technologies andat expense of their accelerated tempo of their development carries for theirrecipient quite normal productive but not venture character.

Thisis the principal advantage of the American economy over economics of othercountries of the world. This is the reason for its medium term stability in theforthcoming global financial

|Ondifference significance in the technological time speed | |Significance of thetime factor in new conditions is evidently | |demonstrated by the massbankruptcy of computer firms in the USA. The| |bankruptcy is followed by thefact that implementation of new | |technological principles demands for suchperiod of time that these | |principles become outdated. | |Thus, the companywhich directs a part of its resources from the | |sphere of technological raceto the practical realization of new | |decisions reaches the slow scale of«technological time» and fails as| |compared with its competitors which remainin the zone of «pure» | |sphere of new ideas development in which thetechnological times | |changes in a quicker way. |

Butapplication of «high-hume» technologies is connected also with danger. Thus,seeming easiness and impunity of conscious influence arouse the most dangerousprofessional illness of the employees engaged in the sphere of public relations– it! is the temptation to solve problems not in the real way but with the helpof the so-called «brainwashing» method or we may use more exact German analogueof this term: ote Seelenmassage».

Thefirst problem of «high-hume» is connected with it: on carrying away by it thecontrol system (of the state or of the corporation) starts the process ofself-hypnosis that makes it inadequate. It is principally important:«high-hume» technologies are dangerous not only for the object of theirinfluence, but for their user as they also transform conscious of the user.

Thesecond problem: to reach the political result it will be enough for the user ofthe «high-hume» technology to form necessary type of conscious of no more than20% of the population being the elite of the society and influence on taking resolutionsand being the example.

Effortsin this direction evidently draw the line between the elite and general mass ofpopulation and create within the society internal disagreements between theself-hypnosed elite and the rest population. Moreover: the elite being apartfrom the population began to percept the ideas, which correspond to itsprinciples. In the result of it 80% of the intellectual potential of thesociety is lost – while the

Thus,gradual appliance of information technologies in respect of the elite class ofthe society is limited by the area of democratic borders of the elite classitself and that is why it reduces the society potential. We saw the example ofthe Russian reformers of 1992 — 1998 years, who could run away from the populationby application such advanced information technologies to themselves to suchextent as the communists could do for seventy years of their domination.

Inthe result of it we have a paradox: more advanced informa6tion society shouldbe less flexible and adaptive and as a result less viable but more stable inits confrontation with non-information society. Is not it the reason forparadox viability of the authoritarian regimes in the end of XX century?

Itis possible that this phenomenon is an «implemented guarantee» from theinformational imperialism, from subordination of the entire world to one themost informed country. And the total mortification of the conscious of othercountries with the help of information technologies is impossible because ofdifferences in cultural aspect which automatically defend minimal intellectualand information sovereignty of each nation separately. But it would be toonaive to hope for it as the major resolution of the forthcoming problems underthe circumstances of gradual integration of cultures into united culture forthe whole world (On the first stage into three major cultures — Christian,Islamic and Buddhistic).

Takinginto consideration a private case of information war – «culture aggression»(i.e. obtrusion of its own culture to the society the potential of which itdoes not correspond) as an instrument of international competition (appliedonly mainly in the inconscient way, in the order of markets winning for sale —the carries of such culture), we should re- estimate the role playing bytraditions.

Traditionsare the psychological protection from something new: it is the attempt to liveas if nothing has happened. In the conditions of reconstruction of massconscious of actual and probable competitors of the tradition starts to act notlike an ostrich, but it goes through minimization of negative consequences inchanges having «squatter» order: attempt to cancel by ignoring of these chargesor cancellation of their major part. I.e. it is a spontaneous reflection of theinformation attack by the information method.

** *

Theabove said means that creation and distribution of meta- technologies reducessignificance of financial resources from the point of view of competitivenessof the societies and corporations: if they have been the main source of powerearlier, now they become only its consequence. Intellect has become the mainsource of the market power. Intellect is embodied in organizational structuresof the research and market corporations creating meta-technologies and holdingcontrol over such technologies.

RephrasingMr. M. Fridman we can say that money recedes into the background after creationof the information society. The reason lies in the following: that propertyright for the meta-technologies makes an organically inalienable part of theholder and his intellect, with the help of which these technologies have beencreated and are supported, according to technological reasons.

Meta-technologiesin a greater degree will transform in a «second nature» making the borders andcreating conditions for development of the personality and the humanity ingeneral. As such these technologies will gradually exchange market relationshipand property rights performing these functions since the moment of moneyappearance.

1.2.New resources for new technologies

Disintegrationof the USSR has given to the developed countries such a financial andintellectual possibility that they were able to speed up their development onthe «lagan» of the disintegrated USSR (differences in orientations andcorrespondingly outlook for Europe and the USA shows that the first one has gotfinances and the latter – intellect). Thus, having won in the cold wardeveloped countries not only destroyed their global antagonist as we have gotused to consider but they managed to do more: they have captured and used itsresources which were truly speaking dreadfully used (the socialism differedfrom the capitalism also in the fact that on preparing the best in the worldpeople resources it united them into organizations in the worst way).

Ithas a principal importance that in the new information postindustrial world themost important resources are first of all finances and intellect, which maytravel very easily from one territory to another, but not the territory withfixed production and people.

Thatis why the appeal to the people from developed countries, who are capable toorganize system of government, had no sense in the nineties: new majorresources for development are not attached to a certain territory! Nowadays theeffective frontier consists not only in recovery of the society within such aterritory but otherwise in isolation within the society with further exemptionfrom its main part of healthy and progressive elements, i.e. people – carriersof finances and intellect.

Insuch method of frontier the progress of the more developed «frontiering»society goes at expense of degradation of the society on frontier, and thescales of degradation of the society on destruction outgo victory in cultureand in progress of the more developed society. As compared with traditionalharmonic processes of development, development at expense of a aliendegradation has always the character of a «play with negative sum».

Thus,distribution of information technologies has changed on a qualitative levelvalue of resources placing on the top position intellect and finances, whichare more mobile nowadays. It has changed the process of cooperation betweendeveloped and developing countries: constructive frontier of the last by thelatter with the help of direct investments into the real sector has started toclimb down to the destructive frontier with the help of exemption of financialand intellectual resources.

Understandingof realias and consequences of such transformation has given birth to thetheory of «dead countries»: under influence of the new information imperialism,the developing countries become actually «dead», as they irretrievably loosenot only the most important intellectual resources for development but also thepossibility to produce them. This leaves nothing in store for them.

1.3.Old technologies «depreciation»

Irreversiblelag of the developing countries is creating not only by the reason of «wash»from them of the most valuable under the new conditions resources, and also dueto collapse of the usefulness of traditional resources and technologies whichthese societies dispose. As the most important result of each new level ofdevelopment of the humanity from the point of view of the practical politics iscomparative depreciation of all «old» technologies and products or theirappliance as they are distributed.

Depthof such depreciation will be in proportion to the primitiveness of the «old»technologies and to the level of monopolization and competitiveness of themarket of such technology products. In accordance with this rule we have adepreciation first of all technologies of the mineral industry because ofdistribution of the information technologies. First of all this processinfluences oil, world market of which is liberalized in the most extent.

Andas the result of it we have a regular reduction of its price in the worldmarket (in 1999 according to estimations to the level of no more than 8 dollarper barrel) that is followed not so much by the agreement between the USAcorporation and the Saudi Arabia but more deeper factor: creation of newinformation technological lifestyle which has new qualitative level. Suchlifestyle has started depreciation of the previous lifestyles by the fact ofits appearance.

Thatis why reduction of prices all over the world for the raw materials and in abroader sense for the products engaging little intellectual work will become atendency deviation from which will be non- significant fluctuations. In thissense the USA actively placing its not so much ecologically but intellectually«impure», i.e. too simple productions has got a maximal guard from negativeconsequences of their own technical breakthrough.

** *

Summingup the above said we may make a list of consequences for new technologiesdevelopment:

.Exacerbation and acquisition of final – at the same time keeping the existingtendencies – compelling character between:

vdeveloped and the rest countries;

vcreating new technological principles by the developed countries

(itis possible that we should use the term «the most developed / advancedcountries») and the rest developed countries;

.Insulation, which take place in all countries, of people engaged in informationtechnologies into internal «information community», its concentration in theterritory of the developed countries; slow concentration of the «informationcommunity» of the world and together with it concentration of the world progressin the «most developed» countries;

.progress termination or its abrupt slowdown (at least technical) beyond thedeveloped countries; social and financial degradation of the developingcountries;

.reduction of the number of developed and the most developed countries becauseof hard competition.

XXVI.Several consequences of markets globalization

2.1.Competition globalization – monopolies globalization

Theprocess of distribution of information technologies is influenced by theprocess of globalization which is created by the process of distribution ofinformation technologies but which has the same level of importance. Formationof the united world markets at least in the financial sphere and gradualintegration of the global markets of different financial instruments intounited world market includes into the agenda the question referring to creationof the global monopolies.

Thereason of it is very simple: it is impossible to divide a single market.

Well-knownexamples of market division had either quite a short period of existence, ascompared with the term of existence of the domination product, or were based onobjective backsets. That made access to a part of competitors to anyprincipally significant element of the market more complicated.

Informationtechnologies reducing transaction expenses to minimum and also an «entrancefee» to the global financial markets destroy these backsets, eliminating anypossibilities for any stable part of these markets. Term of existence of thedominating product – information – is going down to zero that makes practicallyimpossible even temporal division of these markets.

Inthe result of it creation of global monopolies has got two simultaneousdirections:

Formationof global monopolies in the global markets of separate financial instruments;

Formationof the united global monopoly in the result of integration of the said markets(reduction of «price for transformation» from one market to another down to avery small level).

TheAmerican government plays the role of the latter monopoly as it has very closecontacts with the based in the territory of the USA transnational corporationsincluding financial most of which due to the specifics of their activity do notneed any organizational formation.

Thematter may have the following form: the world policy will recently terminatesits existence on the state level, transforming, on one part, to the nationallevel of global groups of capitals and technologies and on the other part – tothe internal level of political life of the country controlling over the majorpart of these capitals and technologies.

(In1997 during the progress of the proamerican «team of young reformers», theRussian lobbyists were greatly amazed at finding out that the sphere of themost effective lobbying of several matters in the internal Russian politics hadtransformed from the Governmental level and the level of the President'sAdministration to the level of the Congress and the USA administration. In theUSSR all matters having principal importance referring to development of therepublics or regions should be solved not by their own authorities but by thecurators of the corresponding directions in Moscow – in the Central Committeeof the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and in the Council of Ministers.)

2.2.«Euro»: suppression of threat and destructive egoism

In1999 the rest tow parts of the process of monopoly globalization will elapseagainst the most important event of the century – commencement of the processfor euro integration. Commencement of European currency integration will be thefirst real after establishment in the beginning nineties of the total worldfinancial crisis attempt which has chances to become a success to depthregional integration up to the level which will dominate over globalintegration.

Integrationof «euro» will reduce foreign currency reserves of banking systems of the world(firstly of Europe) and will release from them a great amount of dollars (onlyin China about tens milliards).

Besides,settlements at European market of energy carriers are made in dollars.Transformation of these settlements into euro will be after integration of thelatter simply a matter of time, let it even be long, but it will releaseseveral tens of milliard dollars.

Atlast purchasing capacity of the maximum European banknote in 500 euros will behigher of the purchasing capacity of the maximum banknote of the USAdenominated in 100 dollars. It will transfer into euro the major part of thelarge sums in cash in Europe, and not only in the countries of the currencyunion but also in the neighboring countries, — also tens of milliard dollars.

Apparentnon-solicitude of the «Eurozone» leaders of the future of such dollars carriesan extremely destructive character of inactivity not only for the USA but alsofor the rest of the world. Actually this inactivity provokes the USA tostrengthen the process of further destabilization of the financial system ofthe world.

Europeandollars and China dollars should be absorbed by other countries not todestabilize the USA on their coming back to the country. Such absorbation ofthe world reserve currency to a great extent happens only under the conditionsof a very deep economic destabilization. Such extent may be only compared withits release under the process of euro integration.

Thus,egoistic indifference of Europeans to welfare of the main global competitor –the USA – in a strategic plan provokes the latter to make destructive steps inrespect of not only the eurozone economic power of which is protected from ashort-term influence but in respect of the third parties, i.e. countries whichare less stable and due to this reason these countries are a favorablepotential recipient of the releasing dollars.

Themost threatened regions are the Latin America (first of all it is Brazil) andseveral countries of the South-Eastern Asia and may be China.

2.3.Global financial competition outlook: technical progress slowdown

Attemptto carry out sterilization of dollars through disorganization of nationaleconomic system can not be the decision for a problem even if such methodallows to postpone the decision of the problem despite of its being veryexpensive.

Thereare two final and real variants to solve the problem:

First– carrying out of long-term investments of the releasing dollars into largeprojects in the zones of mutual influence of the USA and Europe (for example:reconstruction of the Transsib aimed at establishment of the united transportEuropean-Asian line «London-Tokio»). As Russia still remains under politicalinfluence of the USA and under economic influence of Europe, sterilization ofthe extra dollars of the world in the territory of Russia will be for the USAan exchange of a part of its geopolitical influence to the short-term andmedium-term economic safety.

Thisvariant demands for not only constructive approach to the problem (for example:it corresponds to the demands of the overheating economy of Japan) but alsoconsent of the Russian society for its deep healthening or at least readinessfor it.

Thesecond variant – taking a pause which may be gained after dollar runoff to thedestabilizing «second economics» of the world for organization of the head-oncompetitive collision with the eurozone, first premonition of which could befound with non-united European economy in the September, 1992, and with onlystarting its trip to integration economy of the South-Eastern Asia in thesecond half of the 1997 year.

Thisscheme allows the USA to take the strategic initiative and make its own choiceof time, sphere and the character for this collision that taking intoconsideration factor of abruptness gives the USA an advantage.

Atstatic consideration of outlook for such collision based on comparison of thealready existing resources, Europe has advantageous chances. But as compared onthe point of view of dynamics taking into consideration level of expenses,increasing role of newest technologies and actually «natural» (afterdisintegration of the USSR) monopoly of the USA on holding its holding anddevelopment performed with taking into consideration cardinal differences ofthe American and European bureaucracy (the first one – creates, the second –exists) makes us to make our choice in favor of the USA if we have a long-termoutlook for future.

Influenceof «dynamic» factors of the technological quality and bureaucracy on the moderncompetition may be indirectly seen comparison of losses borne by European andAmerican capitals in Russia and South-Eastern Asia: in both cases losses ofEuropeans were greater than that of the Americans from all points of view.Besides, if in the USA losses were borne only by structures, which do not makethe main part of the national economy, with high risk possibility, but inEurope – losses were borne by the banks making the basic part of its bankingsystem.

Thereis no reason to consider that in the nearest years proportion of effectivenessof two financial and governmental systems will change greatly.

Besides,the USA will always be able to carry out discrimination in this or that form ofat least a cash part of dollars which are outside the USA. It may be performedfor example under the slogan of struggle with international crime: first ofall, this thesis is a standard method using by the USA in its internationalcompetitiveness, and then – it is true: turnover of the major part of the USdollars outside the territory of the USA in this or that form is connected withlaw violation, and, thus, the USA progress is based to a certain extent onlurking stimulation of the criminal activity outside the USA.

Ofcause, such discrimination will abruptly limit the most important financialpart of the economic power of the USA – usage of their national currency as aninternational reserve currency and that is why it may be used only as «the lastmeans».

Butin any case not depending on the result of the global financial confrontationbetween the USA and European Currency Union it will lead to the unfavorableevent for the humanity: cardinal slowdown of the China economic developmentwhich may be followed by its destabilization, regress and even disintegration.

Chinamainly develops as an export oriented country integrated into the markets ofEurope and the USA. Collision will reduce purchasing capacity of the outgoingparty and correspondingly will reduce its import including from China. And thiscollision won’t depend on the result of collision between Europe and the USA.

Chinawill hardly bear such an abrupt reduction in its export, which will be thecatalyst of all its internal problems, which are now in an inchoative stage.Destabilization of China will be such an event that will be able up to 2015year set the whole world economy in chaos (except the winner: the USA or theeurozone).

Trulyspeaking, victory of the latter will be a Pyrrhic victory: leaving behind thecompetitors and together with them the whole world for a generation (of peopleand main technologies), it will loose the main sale markets for its productsthat will slowdown its own development.

Inthat case we will have a losing or at least conservation of the most advancedtechnologies: in the event of eurozone victory – because it does not know howto create them, and in the event of the USA victory – because of abruptreduction of the sale markets and realization of these technologies, that willweaken in cardinal way stimulus for their development an will reduce resourcesengaged for such purposes.

Thus,transformation of disagreement between the eurozone and the USA connected withintegration of euro and release of the extra dollars to the level of negativecompetition will be followed by the possibility of slowdown of the developmentof the whole mankind.

III.Global regulation for global competition

3.1.What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»?

Possibilityof slowdown of the development of general human technical progress as it wasshown in the previous paragraph is a minor point of the general rule:development may have only total character. Any attempt to force back the competitorsdisrupt the development making it narrower and poor and increasing the level ofmonopolization through reduction of sale markets to the products of the winner,and leads, thus, to the total slowdown of the development and stagnation.

Itis quite evident: for the mankind itself problems of its own development hasalready become very difficult according to our traditional understanding.National states come across with such thing that their «habitat» isspontaneously formed by overnational structures (including overnationalstructures holding meta-technologies), which, thus, predetermine their actionsand lead the mankind to serious cataclysms and abrupt slowdown of thedevelopment due to their egoistic motives.

Ifwe do not want to allow the described consequences it is necessary to establishthat very international economic regulation which was mentioned in practicalterms after Lenin for the first time by G. Soros: «economic UNO», which differsfrom the already existing political economy with qualitatively smaller level ofbureaucratization as financial processes have qualitative difference as theyare more quick and correspondingly demand for their regulation quicker actionsand effectiveness in general than that of the political processes.

Existingintellectual and consulting «stages» of global financial groups notwithstandingto the dominating influence on them of the USA, may become an embryo of suchorganization. The main trace of character for such organization providing as inthe case with UNO principal capability shall become the general understandingof reality of mutual destruction enforcing the strongest partners to search forthe compromise with more weak partners and even vesting them with right of vetoin respect of strategic and more complicated matters.

3.2.New generation of TNC «the wind of Gods»

Themain task of the organization aimed at performance of international economicregulation is the regulation of the transnational monopoly activity. Besides itis very important to understand that the old TNC are not the owner of the worldany longer. The global financial groups, development of common andmeta-technologies replace them. These groups are very often non-formalized(that makes their regulation more complicated), but their effectiveness,mobility and many-sidedness exceed analogue qualities of the traditional TNC.

Forbetter understanding of the actual problem it will be enough to note thatcoincided with increase of activity transformation in 1993 of researchers performedby transnational corporations from the special body of the UNO (UNCTC) which ingeneral was able to meet the task, to the lower level – the department of theUNCTC, which considers development of the TNC mainly from the departmentalpositions of this organization (in respect of trade and development) and due toinstitutional reasons in general cannot cope with complex observance andanalysis of their activity.

Thisis the first sign of finding by this or that group of the crucial influence:termination of unpleasant for this group (as a minimum independent, and in caseof absence in demand in advertising – any external) researches of this group.

Aswe can see it in the first chapter, the technological leader of the mankind –Mr. Gates – is only going to provide information transparency of othercountries – but overnational monopolies influencing the world greatly leave himbehind for several years preventively liquidating globally even a possibilityof primitive statistical research of the development.

3.3.Value of global regulation

Increaseof influence of the overnational monopolies may reproduce the situation of theend of twenties and thirties of this century. At that time domination ofprivate monopolies in the economies of the most developed countries (includingto certain extent the USSR) had lead to their stagnation and to the GreatDepression. There were formed on the national levels mechanisms of statecontrol over monopolies in the course of the struggle with the GreatDepression, but it was defeated only in the course of preparation for World WarII.

Takinginto consideration these events but from the point of view of power, we shouldpay our attention to very significant drawbacks of the purely economicapproach. Thus, we got used to consider the immediate cause of the GreatDepression the mistake made by the American government: in that very momentwhen from the economic point of view it was necessary to alleviate financialpolicy it was otherwise cardinal toughen that was followed by crash on thestock exchange and economic catastrophe.

Butthe fact which from the economic point of view was inexcusable mistake, fromthe political point of view it was the only way out. As in those days Americahad to solve the main and the only question of power. Question of the economicwelfare was of a minor importance for any practical politician.

Whenthere is a threat to economic conjuncture there was a question: who shouldgovern the country – state under conditions of democracy oriented in general tothe interests of the society, or several private monopolies («oligarchies»)oriented to their own interests which are in contradiction to the socialinterests.

Andfor the purpose of restoration of its dominating position partially lost aftercreation and heyday of private monopolies in the twenties, the Americangovernment without any doubt and at once with determination which is verytypical for Mr. Chubais (Russian reformer known for his extreme and drasticmeasures aimed at improvement of economic situation in Russia – annotation ofthe translator) plunged the country into unknown in the history of mankindcatastrophes which destroyed almost the half of national economy and left ascar in the soul of every American survived in these catastrophes.

Iwould like also to underline two 60 years old events important for betterunderstanding of the current situation.

Firstof all, this dreadful resolution was right from the historical point of view,as private monopolies due to objective reasons were unable to perform necessaryfunctions of the state, and their domination could be followed by greatercatastrophe for the society, though it could happen later (that is quiteevidently shown on the example with Russia of 1995 – 1998 years).

Secondly,it was a spontaneous resolution adopted on the level of collective conscious(or even «collective unconscious») of the state and the society. There are notproves for the fact that the political aspect of resolution was established byseveral even holding posts of a very high rank participants of the event.Though it is evident that they fully sensed the political aspect of the eventsdescribed would never want to disclose it.

Itis possible that in the nearest future the mankind will have to go throughspontaneous and non-understanding by several contemporaries resolution of sucha question referring to power (taking into consideration accelerating course ofprogress) on the level of world economy and world policy. It is possible thatit will be as difficult for developed economics as it was difficult forindustrial and financial centers of the USA in the end of twenties (that isindirectly proved by our forecast on slowdown of technical progress of themankind), and it will be also destructive for less developed countries as itwas destructive for the American agricultural godforsaken regions of thatperiod of time.

Itis also possible that «economic UNO» which was spoken above will be created asa mechanism to control over overnational corporations and mainly to controlover global financial groups. And as the result it may become the power of theworld.

Asfor the external event referring to our economic system (i.e. referring to thewhole mankind) which will find out the way from depression resulting aftercrisis, this event will also leave no time for delay and compromise and it willmobilize the mankind as World War II did it. And it is impossible to foreseesuch event even with the lowest positive degree of accuracy.

Wecannot but hope the leaders of the mankind (to which we cannot refer ourcountry) like 60 years ago will be the first to see it and notify the otherwith word of mouth of their strategist and city mad people.